Sslee blog

Hengyuan: HRC Q3 2022 financial report enquiry

Sslee
Publish date: Sun, 04 Dec 2022, 04:19 PM
Sslee
0 232
This is my blog
Draft: Will email out tomorrow:
Comments are welcome:
 
Dear Haniza Abdul Hamid,
IR Contact: HRCPD-Corporate-Affairs@hrc.com.my
 
I am shocked beyond words and cannot believe my eyes how HRC Q2 PBT RM 897,000,000 was totally wiped out by Q3 PBT of RM -894,141,000. The reasons for the huge loss according to the Q3 financial report are as follow:
The recorded loss of RM756mil for 3Q 2022 was attributable to adverse refining margin as compared to a more favourable refining margin during 3Q 2021. Adverse refining margin was mainly affected by sharp reduction in cracks especially for Mogas, coupled with higher crude premium incurred as well as higher stockholding losses due to significant drop in product prices during the quarter. These factors led to a net loss for 3Q 2022.
 
I have compiled some facts and figures from public available sources and would like the HRC management to give explanation on my questions:
From Petron Corp quarterly report on crack spread
Q1 2022
Prices of Dubai crude USD 95.6/barrel
Gasoline cracks USD 17.8. Price USD (95.6 + 17.8) = USD 113.4 /barrel
Diesel cracks USD 21.6. Price USD (95.6 + 21.6) = USD 117.2/barrel
Kero-jet cracks USD 16.2. Price USD (95.6 + 16.2) = USD 111.8/barrel
Q2 2022
Prices of Dubai crude USD (101.8X2- 95.6) = 108/barrel
Gasoline cracks USD (26.4X2-17.8) = 35. Price USD (108 + 35) = USD 143/barrel
Diesel cracks USD (36.6X2-21.6) = 51.6. Price USD (108 + 51.6) = USD 159.6/barrel
Kero-jet cracks USD (27.7X2-16.2) = 39.2. Price USD (108 + 39.2) =USD 147.2/barrel
Q3 2022
Prices of Dubai crude USD (101.2X3- 95.6-108) = USD 100.3/barrel
Gasoline cracks $ (22X3-17.8-35) = 13.2. Price USD (100.3 + 13.2) = USD 113.5/barrel
Diesel cracks $ (38.1X3-21.6-51.6) = 41.1. Price USD (100.3 + 41.1) = USD 141.4/barrel
Kero-jet cracks $(29.3X3-16.2-39.2) = 32.5. Price USD (100.3 + 32.5) = USD 132.8/barrel
 
From HRC quarterly report
Quarter 1: The market price during the current quarter and financial period ended 31 March
2022 (“1Q 2022”) surged to an average of USD115 per barrel as compared to the average price of USD66 per barrel in the corresponding period in 2021
Quarter 2: The product prices during 2Q 2022 and YTD 2022 improved from an average price of USD75 per barrel and USD71 per barrel for the corresponding periods in 2021 to USD151 per barrel and USD133 per barrel respectively.
Quarter 3: The rise in revenue for the current quarter (“3Q 2022”) was supported by a 51% surge in the market product prices at an average price of USD124 per barrel.
Based on above data:
Fuel
Price
Yield
Amount
Mogas/Gasoline
113.4
0.47
53.298
Diesel
117.2
0.46
53.912
Kero-jet
111.8
0.07
7.826
Q1 average
 
 
115.036
Mogas/Gasoline
143
0.47
67.21
Diesel
159.6
0.46
73.416
Kero-jet
147.2
0.07
10.304
Q2 average
 
 
150.93
Mogas/Gasoline
113.5
0.47
53.345
Diesel
141.4
0.46
65.044
Kero-jet
132.8
0.07
9.296
Q3 average
 
 
127.685
 
Quarter 3 Revenue should be USD 127.685/barrel.
Question 1:  Why Q3 only achieved revenue of USD124 per barrel instead of calculated USD 127.685/barrel?
 
Publication:
Gasoil/diesel/jet fuel crack spread chart (historical highest level range)
Kerosene/ jet fuel crack spread (at historical highest range level)
Gasoline/petrol RON 92 crack spread spread chart (normalize level range)
SINGAPORE MOGAS 95 UNLEADED (PLATTS) FUTURES
 
As at 31/03/2022
WTI: USD 98.520.490
Brent: USD 102.73
Gasoil crack spread: USD 33.169
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 14.845
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 22.131
Outstanding refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 291,009,000
Assets: RM 45,186,000
Liabilities: RM (339,510,000)
 
As at 30/06/2022
WTI: USD 103.10
Brent: USD 105.59
Gasoil crack spread: USD 56.125. Peak at USD 59.019 at 23 June 2022
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578. Peak at USD 33.481 at 22 June 2022
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 41.964. Peak at USD 60.816 at 21 June 2022
 Outstanding refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM (1,751,332,000)
 
As at 30/09/2022
WTI: USD 79.490
Brent: USD 85.140
Gasoil crack spread: USD 43.651
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 1.652
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 27.286
Outstanding refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 287,384,000
Assets: RM 169,473,000
Liabilities: RM (1,257,369,000)
 
Quarter 3 report: Adverse refining margin was mainly affected by sharp reduction in cracks especially for Mogas.  
Note: Mogas92 sharp drop from USD 31.578 as at 30/06/22 to USD 1.652 as at 30/09/2022
From 2021 HRC annual report;
The Company purchases crude on an ongoing basis as the Company requires continuous supply of crude to produce petroleum products. As a result of the volatility in crude price, the Company held refining margin swaps designated as hedge of highly probable forecast crude purchases or firm commitments and sales of petroleum products to reduce the volatility of cash flows
The contracts are intended to hedge the volatility of the refining margin (differences between purchase price of crude oil and sales price of petroleum products) for a period between 1 to 33 months (2020: 1 to 12 months).  
Hedge Gross margin per barrel (USD) 8.00 to 12.30
 
As per annual report if HRC management had hedged the Mogas gross margin per barrel (USD) 8.00 to 12.30. Then why when Mogas92 sharp drop from USD 31.578 as at 30/06/22 to USD 1.652 as at 30/09/2022 Q3 HRC hedging still suffered:
Question 2: Other operating losses: RM 73,569,000?
 
Question 3: Fair value loss on derivatives financial instruments: RM 364,570,000. Cumulative 9 months RM 1,235,534,000?
 
Question 4: Outstanding refining margin swap contracts as at 30/09/22 Liabilities: RM (1,257,369,000) far exceeded Assets RM 169,473,000?
 
Question 5: How under other comprehensive (expense)/income: Q3 is RM 422,463,000 when the fair values of outstanding financial instruments were net liabilities of RM 1,113,870,000?
  
Q3 financial report: Higher stockholding losses due to significant drop in product prices during the quarter
From HRC 2021 annual report:
Commodity options, commodity swap contracts and refining margin swap contracts
The Company also uses commodity options, commodity swap contracts and refining margin swap contracts to manage its commodity price risk and inventory holding cost. The Company does not designate these derivatives as hedging instruments.
Quarter 1: Inventories written down: RM 131,558,000
Quarter 2: Inventories (written back): RM (52,825,000)
Quarter 3: Inventories written down: RM 70,045,000. Cumulative 9 months RM 148,778,000
 
Question 6: Please explain why commodity options, commodity swap contracts did not mitigate the stockholding loss/gain? Note: Cumulative 9 months fair value loss on derivatives financial instruments RM 1,235,534,000
 
Question 7: Please explain how HRC computed the quarter to quarter inventories written down/(written back) and how did the audit committee verified these quarter to quarter Inventories written down/(written back)?
 
Quarter 3 financial report: Fair value of financial instruments that were outstanding as at the reporting date are detailed below:
 
 
 
 
Notional amount
Assets
(Liabilities)
30.09.2022
 
 
USD’000
RM’000
RM’000
Forward foreign currency contracts
131,000
7,778
            (70)
Forward priced commodity contracts
35,768
543
      (15,599)
Commodity swap contracts
 
45,993
 
        (9,014)
Refining margin swap contracts
287,384
159,473
 (1,257,369)
Interest rate swap contracts
 
34,375
388
 
Total
 
 
534,520
168,182
 (1,282,052)
 
Other receivables and prepayments: RM 894,581,000
Question 8: Place explain how you compute forward priced commodity contracts, commodity swap contracts and refining swap contracts notional amount, assets and liabilities?
 
Question 9: For financial assets of total notional amount of USD 534,532,000 how much prepayment was required and expenses incurred per quarter?
 
Question 10: Is the prepayment and expenses tied to the USD interest rate?
 
Note: Petron Malaysia managed to turn Q2:
Derivatives: Realized loss: RM 207,862,000 or USD 207,862,000/(8,700,000x4.35)= USD 5.49/barrel
Unrealized loss: RM 166,799,000 or USD 166,799,000/(8,700,000x4.35) = USD 4.41/barrel
To Q3:
Derivatives: Realized gain: RM 139,957,000 or USD 139.957,000/(8,600,000x4.50)= USD 3.62/barrel
Unrealized gain RM 7,588,000
 
Quarter 2 financial report:
Revenue: RM 6,894,160,000
Purchases: RM 5,981,218,000
Q2 revenue of USD 151 per barrel
Average Q2 USD: MYR exchange rate: 4.35
Volume sold = 6,894,160,000/(4.35 x 151) = 10.496 million barrels
HRC oil refinery yield of 1.05: Purchase crude oil volume = 10.496/1.05 = 9.996 million barrels
Fair value loss on derivatives financial instruments: RM 438,758,000
Inventories written back: RM (52,825,000)
Foreign exchange loss realized: RM 61,559,000
Foreign exchange loss unrealized: RM 23,711,000
Total RM 471,203,000
Assume this is charged to purchase hence purchase for crude oil is RM (5,981,218,000 - 471,203,000) = RM 5,510,015,000
Purchase crude oil price per barrel: USD 5,510,015,000/(4.35 X 9,996,000)= USD 126.71
 
Quarter 3 financial report: Coupled with higher crude premium incurred
Revenue: RM 5,030,795,000
Purchases: RM 5,751,607,000
Q3 revenue of USD 124 per barrel
Average Q3 USD: MYR exchange rate: 4.50
Volume sold = 5,030,795,000/(4.50 x 124) = 9.016 million barrels
HRC oil refinery yield of 1.05: Purchase crude oil volume = 9.016/1.05 = 8.586 million barrels
Fair value loss on derivatives financial instruments: RM 364,570,000
Inventories written down: RM 70,045,000
Foreign exchange loss realized: RM 23,422,000
Foreign exchange loss unrealized: RM 21,169,000
Total RM 479,206,000
Assume this is charged to purchase hence purchase for crude oil is RM (5,751,607,000 - 479,206,000) = RM 5,272,401,000
Purchase crude oil price per barrel: USD 5,272,401,000/(4.50 X 8,586,000)= USD 136.453
 
From Petron Malaysia quarter 3 reports:
Dated Brent dropped by 11% to USD 101/barrel in Q3 from the USD 114/barrel in Q2
From Petron Corp quarterly report Dubai crude dropped to USD 100.3/barrel in Q3 from the USD 108 /barrel in Q2
 
 
Question 11: Please explain per above calculation crude purchase in Q3 USD 136.453/barrel even higher then Q2 of USD 126.71/barrel when average Dated Brent dropped to USD 101/barrel in Q3 from the USD 114/barrel in Q2?
 
Question 12: Please explain why paid high crude premium (who make this decision) until Q3 incurred gross (loss) of RM (720,812,000)
 
Quarter 3 financial report:
Revenue decreased by 27% for the quarter under review as a result of an adverse movement in product prices by 18% and a drop in sales volume by 14% due to production downtime.
Squeeze in the refining margin arose from production downtime, sharp reduction in cracks especially for Mogas and higher crude premium recorded for the quarter. This was further exacerbated by stockholding losses during 3Q 2022.
 
Question 13: When was the date of production downtime and number of days lost to downtime?
 
Question 14: Please explain and quantify the squeeze in the refining margin that arose from production downtime?
 
Thank you
Your prompt response will be appreciated
 
Best Regards
Lee Soon Sheng

P/S: I hope HRC management will respect the right of minority shareholders to hold Management accountable and answerable by promptly responding to my enquiry (Give explanation and answers to my questions).

Failure to respond will leave me with no choice but to make a formal complaint to SC and Bursa to investigate whether HRC gave false representation on their Q2 and Q3 2022 financial report thus in violating Bursa/SC listing rule and regulation.

 
Note: I am extremly sorry if my overconfident on HRC Q3 result based on public avilable data had misled anyone to lose money in HRC.
Below my HRC lose:
 
102796276 01/11/2022 Brought Forward 20,000 4.3065
102947637 02/11/2022 Sell 2,000 4.9000
102947728 02/11/2022 Sell 1,000 4.9100
102947939 02/11/2022 Sell 1,000 4.9200
102947952 02/11/2022 Sell 1,000 4.9300
102948031 02/11/2022 Sell 1,000 4.9400
102948088 02/11/2022 Sell 1,000 4.9500
103056572 17/11/2022 Buy 10,000 4.4000
103056790 17/11/2022 Buy 2,000 4.3800
103092838 22/11/2022 Buy 4,000 4.4100
103108751 23/11/2022 Buy 2,000 4.4600
103136387 25/11/2022 Buy 2,000 4.5700
103136452 25/11/2022 Buy 3,000 4.5600
103136541 25/11/2022 Buy 2,000 4.5300
103139072 25/11/2022 Buy 2,000 4.5200
103139670 25/11/2022 Buy 2,500 4.5100
103140459 25/11/2022 Buy 2,500 4.5100
103153030 29/11/2022 Buy 2,000 4.5400
103160130 29/11/2022 Buy 3,000 4.5500
103161718 30/11/2022 Sell 10,000 3.7200
103161758 30/11/2022 Sell 10,000 3.7500
103162653 30/11/2022 Sell 5,000 3.6100
103163740 30/11/2022 Sell 5,000 3.7200
103164062 30/11/2022 Sell 5,000 3.7200
103164198 30/11/2022 Sell 5,000 3.7300
103165315 30/11/2022 Sell 5,000 3.6900
103165607 30/11/2022 Sell 5,000 3.7000
103174389 30/11/2022 Buy 500 3.5700
103892766 01/12/2022 Brought Forward 500 3.5700

 

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3 people like this. Showing 50 of 109 comments

BobAxelrod

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 10:35

Sslee

How not to loss money when crude purchase in Q3 USD 136.453/barrel even higher then Q2 of USD 126.71/barrel when average Dated Brent dropped to USD 101/barrel in Q3 from the USD 114/barrel in Q2?

2022-12-21 10:45

brightsmart

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 10:52

BobAxelrod

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 10:53

BobAxelrod

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 10:55

BobAxelrod

Marty Byrde simply loves this super washing machine.....

2022-12-21 10:56

brightsmart

Q3 cost of manufacturing is higher than q2 cost of manufacturing is not beyond my expectations due to delays and timing differences between oil prices and how they get reflected in cost of manufacturing

2022-12-21 10:56

brightsmart

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 11:09

Sslee

qqq3 the exact answer to my question during 2018 AGM.
0ur purchased lot size can range between 300,000 to 1 million barrels. We typically store between 2 - 3 million barrels of crude. Book inventories will also include sailing stocks for which titles have passed to HRC. Part of our operation planning include having sufficient inventory of each crude slate for more than a week's production.

2022-12-21 11:10

BobAxelrod

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 11:15

Sslee

Typical, crude oil price are benchmarked against dated Brent, dated Dubai or crude oil official selling price. The final agreed price will include a premium/discount to the benchmark.

2022-12-21 11:15

BobAxelrod

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 11:15

Sslee

If only the Q2 unrealised hedging losses in on Mogas92 crack spread then that unrealised hedging losses should had turned from liabilities into assets in Q3

But surprised the Q3 unrealised hedging losses still at more than RM 1 billion+

2022-12-21 11:41

BobAxelrod

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 11:45

BobAxelrod

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 11:47

brightsmart

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 12:27

Sslee

Bursa very fast response.

Dear Sir,

Reference is made to your e-mail on the above matter.

We have escalated the complaint to our line department concerned for their further action. The assessment into the matter you highlighted may take time, depending on the complexity of the issues raised. However, we will undertake the necessary actions to ensure that your complaint is looked into accordingly and will take the necessary enforcement actions if there is any breach of Listing Requirements.

As we do not play the role of ombudsman nor do we conduct arbitration, in the event of conflicts or financial losses, the aggrieved parties need to file the claims through the appropriate legal process in court.

We will also make the necessary referral to other relevant authorities should we come across any potential breaches of other regulations / Acts (other than the Listing Requirements).

Thank you and have a good day.

Bursa 2U
Bursa Malaysia Berhad
Our Ref: CAS-27923-D0K3D0

2022-12-21 12:28

brightsmart

Posted by Sslee > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Typical, crude oil price are benchmarked against dated Brent, dated Dubai or crude oil official selling price. The final agreed price will include a premium/discount to the benchmark.

=======

but u still do not understand their primary documents for pricing and timing of sales/ purchases.

2022-12-21 12:28

BobAxelrod

Aiyoh........Bursa standard Auto Reply ma.........

2022-12-21 12:36

brightsmart

Q3 cost of manufacturing is higher than q2 cost of manufacturing is not beyond my expectations due to delays and timing differences between oil prices and how they get reflected in cost of manufacturing

u see huge unrealised loss below the line in q2 results....... u don't see huge derivative losses in q3.....a possible explanation is that these are forward transactions and accounted for in purchases during q3.

2022-12-21 12:40

brightsmart

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 12:43

brightsmart

d by Sslee > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Typical, crude oil price are benchmarked against dated Brent, dated Dubai or crude oil official selling price. The final agreed price will include a premium/discount to the benchmark.
=========

a lot of timing differences between sales and purchase prices.

2022-12-21 13:31

Sslee

How ironic can it be when HRC naysayer like qqq3 suddenly become it strong supporter and defender.

qqq3 tell me you still hold how many HRC share and at what price?

2022-12-21 14:39

brightsmart

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 14:56

BobAxelrod

Walao...buy HY when oil prices suddenly shoots up.........like telling that Sugar is sweet.....or only women carries babies and men cannot.

2022-12-21 15:02

brightsmart



BobAxelrod

5,954 posts

Posted by BobAxelrod > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

Walao...buy HY when oil prices suddenly shoots up.........like telling that Sugar is sweet.....or only women carries babies and men cannot.
=========


stock market is not about who is the einstein, stock market is mostly about personality and whether the market suits your personality.

2022-12-21 15:05

brightsmart

bob.........there is no necessity to reinvent the wheel each time I make money.

2022-12-21 15:06

brightsmart

like HK shares.............now western media gang up to criticise China for its covid policies......................zero covid policy also criticise, open up also criticise. always cricise never miss the opportunity to criticise china but later will reverse and buy China shares. ..and cny angpow.................................

2022-12-21 15:10

BobAxelrod

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 15:11

brightsmart

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 15:12

brightsmart

Post removed.Why?

2022-12-21 18:38

BobAxelrod

Already replied the Feng Shui required for stocks investments mentioned by this fella few hours ago....but can't blame him, he's chinese educated, sometimes missed the message.....


Posted by BobAxelrod > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse

LOL...I shoot straight and never waver. When you are right, I say that's the truth....no need to camouflage.
And investments in stocks depends on personal "pat chi"??? That's something new...

2022-12-21 20:23

qqq47660

There are far worse shares in bursa

2023-01-04 12:07

qqq47660

$88 million pre tax profits for 9 months not too shabby for this company

2023-01-04 12:10

Sslee

qqq3,
Why accept $88 million pre tax profits for 9 months when in the third quarter alone, Hyundai Oilbank’s operating profit skyrocketed by 226 percent on-year to 2.8 trillion won.

2023-01-04 12:43

qqq47660

sslee, don't be so silly................... Hyundai got make so much profits in q2 meh? its all timing differences and hedgings.

2023-01-04 12:57

qqq47660

sslee, don't be so silly................... Hyundai got make so much profits in q2 meh? its all timing differences and hedgings.

further more, u don't even know how Hy and hyundai fix their selling prices.

2023-01-04 12:58

qqq47660

and regarding AGM, I will encourage laymen to attend AGM of good quality companies and not attend AGM of lower quality companies. Its a one sided affair.....laymen will be sweet talk by CEo to buy more of their low quality shares.

2023-01-04 13:08

qqq47660

this ttb of icap has never treated minority shareholders as partners. ..................................so why attend AGM or even read their accounts? same for any lower quality companies such as Jaks, Insas, ............................................ many many more.


and that is the main thing. if u cannot smell a rat from far far away, and stay far far away, there is no end to troubles as Ceo all good in sweet talks up close.

2023-01-04 13:47

stockraider

Aiseh!
Why attend Icap Agm leh ??

Got alot of free makan many many pretty girls at Icap mtg loh!

Posted by qqq47660 > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

this ttb of icap has never treated minority shareholders as partners. ..................................so why attend AGM or even read their accounts? same for any lower quality companies such as Jaks, Insas, ............................................ many many more.


and that is the main thing. if u cannot smell a rat from far far away, and stay far far away, there is no end to troubles as Ceo all good in sweet talks up close.

2023-01-04 16:21

qqq47660

U mean ttb employ a lot of pretty girls to be interns?

2023-01-04 17:17

stockraider

Ya loh!

Should attend the AGM mah!

Posted by qqq47660 > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

U mean ttb employ a lot of pretty girls to be interns?

2023-01-04 17:19

SEE_Research

Post removed.Why?

2023-01-05 11:58

SEE_Research

Post removed.Why?

2023-01-05 11:58

qqq47660

layman vs ceo............. its a one sided affair.................................a match of unequals.

2023-01-05 12:20

qqq47660

China is sun tzu country.

the best war is a war win before fighting.

2023-01-05 12:29

i3lurker

The Answer to Q28.
Question 28: In your opinion who (executive directors and top management) should be held accountable, answerable and responsible for the loss?
The person responsible is this lazy guy called Lee Soon Sheng, purportedly a shareholder, facts yet to be proven, who failed whether negligently failed or purposely failed or by acts designed to fail, or failed to exercise control or failed beyond his control to properly exercise his Duty of Care and either blindly or was convinced or was scammed or was negligently or was careless in exercising his vote to approve the entire Board of Directors of HRC.

2023-05-08 08:10

nicholas99

sure siphon out.. money.. if not, how to roll. if mother company go down, hengyuan go down too.

2023-05-08 08:59

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