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SCGM –FY18Q4季报分析
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|
SCGM |
FY 2018 |
|||
|
('000) |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
|
Revenue |
53,664 |
52,106 |
53,416 |
48,231 |
|
Export Sales |
18,143 |
19,557 |
19,125 |
14,493 |
|
Local Sales |
35,521 |
32,549 |
34,291 |
33,738 |
|
Operating Expenses |
(47,085) |
(45,922) |
(47,863) |
(47,697) |
|
Other Operating Income |
488 |
258 |
296 |
843 |
|
Operating Profit |
7,067 |
6,442 |
5,849 |
1,377 |
|
Finance Cost |
(359) |
(351) |
(404) |
(495) |
|
Profit Before Tax |
6,708 |
6,091 |
5,445 |
882 |
|
Taxation |
(1,116) |
(835) |
(48) |
(732) |
|
Net Profit |
5,592 |
5,256 |
5,397 |
150 |
SCGM 的季报出炉后，吓了一跳，Net Profit竟然才RM 150,000。明明上几个季度的业绩还不错，就算其他的plastic公司如Tomypak，Thonguan都表现得差强人意，但SCGM还是能够在销量和Net Profit上都保持着。为什么到了Q4，Sales只下跌了9.7%，可是Net Profit却下跌了97% ？
管理层表示Sales下跌是因为假期影响国内外销量的贡献。从以上图表来看，国内销量过去几个季度到最新的季度都还算平稳的，但是Export销量却在这个季度下跌了RM 4.6 million。PBT Margin也大幅度下跌来到1.8%。
再来看cost方面，公司提到PBT margin减少是因为
1.) Higher Resin Price
2.) Higher Finance Cost
3.) Higher Depreciation Charges
4.) Higher Labor Charges
5.) Foreign Exchange Loss
|
SCGM |
FY 2018 |
|||
|
('000) |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
|
Finance Cost |
(359) |
(351) |
(404) |
(495) |
|
Depreciation |
2,606 |
2,633 |
2,925 |
3,028 |
|
Net Forex (Gain)/Loss |
(132) |
284 |
459 |
54 |
|
Realised Forex (Gain)/Loss |
(77) |
65 |
138 |
375 |
|
Unrealised Forex (Gain)/Loss |
(55) |
219 |
321 |
(321) |
- Finance Cost – Q4比起Q3多了RM 91,000
- Depreciation - Q4比起Q3多了RM 103,000
- Forex Loss - Q4的Forex Loss减少至RM 54,000
- Q4 Finance Cost + Depreciation + Net Forex Loss = RM 3,577,000
- Q3 Finance Cost + Depreciation + Net Forex Loss = RM 3,788,000
公司所说的Higher Finance Cost和Higher Depreciation Charges，其实只增加了RM 194,000，虽然还是有forex loss，但是比起Q3已经大幅度下降。所以这3项cost，并不是造成net profit 大跌的主因。
基于季报上并没有显示出COGS，Selling & Distribution Expenses, 和Administration expenses, 所以笔者无法确实检测Resin Price和Labour Cost对公司造成得实际影响。但是可以肯定得是Resin Price的影响是非常大的，70%的Production Cost是来自Resin。Sales比起Q3少了RM 4.6 million, net profit 却少了 RM 5.2 million 。国际油价在Q3平均为USD60，而这个季度大约来到USD65，差不多有一个8%的涨幅。而在过去几个季度国际油价都在上涨，公司的PBT margin却只下跌了一点。一直到Q4，PBT margin才看到很大幅度的下降。所以很大的可能Resin cost是有lagging effect。
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
|
USD45 |
USD50 |
USD60 |
USD65 |
|
SCGM (estimated) |
FY 2018 |
|||
|
('000) |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
|
Revenue |
53,664 |
52,106 |
53,416 |
48,231 |
|
COGS (est) |
(41,906) |
(40,871) |
(42,598) |
(42,450) |
|
Gross Profit |
11,758 |
11,235 |
10,818 |
5,781 |
|
GP Margin |
22% |
22% |
20% |
12% |
|
SG&A Exp (est) |
(4,709) |
(4,592) |
(4,786) |
(4,770) |
|
Other Expenses (est) |
(471) |
(459) |
(479) |
(477) |
|
Other Operating Income |
488 |
258 |
296 |
843 |
|
Operating Profit |
7,067 |
6,442 |
5,849 |
1,377 |
|
Finance Cost |
(359) |
(351) |
(404) |
(495) |
|
Profit Before Tax |
6,708 |
6,091 |
5,445 |
882 |
|
PBT Margin |
12.50% |
11.69% |
10.19% |
1.83% |
|
Taxation |
(1,116) |
(835) |
(48) |
(732) |
|
Net Profit |
5,592 |
5,256 |
5,397 |
150 |
笔者做了以上的estimation, 如果下个季度，Resin Cost持续上升，公司无法转嫁成本给与顾客，再或则是Sales继续下跌，很有肯能会面临亏损。但是从” 回归根本” 的分享看到，公司已经在6月份上调产品价格10-15%，而且会随着原材料的上涨做出相应调整。所以接下来的几个季度要观察的是，产品起价是否可以抵消Resin的上涨，能够抵消多少percent？成本转嫁给顾客是否会影响销售量？毕竟现在把产能提升了，销售量一定要有所提升，才能让公司的盈利好上来。SCGM预计今年12月，新厂就能开始运作，笔者我预计在搬迁过程中expenses会继续增加，生产线也可能在其间受到影响导致销数量下滑。所以推测新厂的新机器应该还要2-3个季度才会看到比较大的贡献，前提是要有需求和订单。
By: 十里
10/7/18
Note
以上纯属个人分享及意见，并没有买卖建议。
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2018-07-11 20:11