Little Value Investor

LVI: Semiconductor Sector Price to EPS Peer Comparison

Mark Goh
Publish date: Wed, 02 Mar 2022, 12:53 PM
Mark Goh
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Little Value Investor is my public (but also personal) archive of my investing ideas so that I can look back at my previous self to reflect.

I have been investing starting in 2016 when my bestfriend convinced me to invest. Mostly self thought, my early journey have been binge watching Professor's Damodaran NYU Stern University's semester classes on Valuation. Now, in my free time I read announcements, quarterly and annual reports.

I was curious to understand how the semiconductor peers are are priced relative to each other. This is what triggered my research.

Using some python programming support here is the methodoloogy I adopt:

I filtered all stocks that are under 'semiconductor' and 'technology equipment' subsectors in the entire Bursa. The result is it include all the following component stocks:

GREATEC, UWC, FRONTKN, GTRONIC, VIS, MPI, INARI, VSTECS, D&O, JHM, JFTECH, PENTA, ICTZONE, MMSV, VITROX, ELSOFT, UNISEM, UCREST, AIMFLEX, MI, AEMULUS, KESM, MIKROMB, CABNET, EDARAN, GENETEC, TURIYA, FSBM, JCY, MQTECH, K1, NOTION, VC, MLAB, SMTRACK, KEYASIC, ITRONIC, KGROUP, TRIVE

After researching all stocks on Bursa, over the last few years - I can confidently deduce that the equity market is mostly driven by the relationship between price and eps. I found proof in this - probably a post for another time. So I decided to adopt the PE method of analysis. Formula I would be using is as follows:

vwamc, Volume weighted average market capitalization

price = vwamc / no of shares

eps_5y, Average 20 net profit of trailing twelve months

As a conservative approach, I am dropping all the stocks that net profit ttm that are negative. With this the following counters are left:

FRONTKN, GTRONIC, VIS, MPI, INARI, VSTECS, D&O, JHM, PENTA, MMSV, VITROX, ELSOFT, MIKROMB

And plot price and eps on a log scale.

Here is what I received:

Caption: Please right click and view the image in another tab.[it looks distorted in this post]

The linear regression line an R squared of 0.76 which is pretty good. (Correction: Polynomial regression line is used)

From here, all stocks that are below the line are trading at relatively undervalue and above the sector are stocks that are overvalue. I need to stress the word relatively because there are some companies that deserve a lower valuation and some deserve a higher valuation.

However, my analysis allowed me to narrow my search of a value semiconductor stock. Lately, I have been looking at Gtronic, MMSV and Vstec.

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