• Overview. SOP’s 3Q19 PATAMI increased 74% to RM30.9m due mainly to margin improvement in plantation segment on higher production and improved palm products sold. On qoq basis, PBT increased more than 30 times to RM43.2m as higher production and transacted products volume helped to mitigate a weak ASP realised of PK products.

• Key highlights. 3Q19 saw both FFB and CPO production increased by 29% to 395K MT and 123K MT respectively, with PK production rising 36% to 27k MT. On the other hand, ASP realised of palm oil increased marginally by 1% to RM2,077/MT while palm kernel dropped 3% RM1,394/MT (Table 2).

• Against estimates: above. 9M19 profit was above ours and consensus’ estimates. Nonetheless, during the period, PBT was down by 38% as revenue slipped 20% to RM2.05bn. The decline in ASP realised and lower palm products volume, aided by weak other operating income of RM10.5m (-65% yoy) and lower margin from property segment contributed to the lower results.

• Outlook. We believe earnings would progress in the coming quarter, in view of improving palm products prices that would compensate for the flat production expected this year. We estimate FFB production to rise by only 1% yoy to 1.35m tonnes in FY19.

• Our call. Maintain HOLD with new TP of RM2.98 (RM1.98 previously) based on target P/B of 0.8x and 2-years average BV/share of RM3.72. We have revised our FY19 and FY20 earnings forecast higher to RM56.3m and RM79.1m respectively from RM20.7m and RM48.4m previously, as we adjusted our assumption on costs of sales and operating expenses lower.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 29 Nov 2019