Bright and smart
Malaysia steel stocks.....buy, sell, hold?
brightsmart
Publish date: Fri, 02 Mar 2018, 06:56 PM
i3 sifu and fee collecting sifu OTB has recently put Hengyuan ( before the latest results and even after) and multiple steel stocks Masteel, Lionindustry, Choo Bee as his principle focus.
It is just too bad or is it bad luck that Hengyuan and steel stocks fared very badly since his recent recommendations and doubling down on his opinion with latest update.
Lets focus on Malaysia steel stocks here.
Masteel just reported a 70% drop in Q on Q earnings and the share has been dropping since. Clear sign of margin squeeze and price increases did not match up with cost increases. This is indicative of more bad news to come especially since all the steel stocks have an extended run prior to that. Surely, a case of reality hitting overly optimistics opinions.
But instead of cut loss based on moving average charts ( OTB's TA), a sifu who has invested so much emotional energy and reputaion on it cannot get himself to issue a sell recomendation......so let me do it for him.
Its a big thing when both Southern Steel and Masteel in their results release refered to a new Kuantan mill as potential threat in their future margins. I wil advise all readers to Google, Alliance Steel , Kuantan and do your own research before you follow OTB to put more of your good hard earned money following bad money already invested in steel counters. How do you like a new Megasteel and Perwaja to compete with your beloved Masteel in the near future? No other shares to put your money meh?
Do not forget the disaster in supporting Hengyuan all the way from $ 19 to $12 presently.
Traits and character cannot change. The same traits that allow OTB to succeed at times are also the same traits that leads to disasters in the wrong times. Stupidity and stubborness some times pay off in the stock market...it is called randomness and luck factor.
You want to invest with a stubborn attitude or you want to invest with a flexible attitude? The choice is yours.
The definition of a stupid person is one who doesn't believe the truth and continues to believe in llies.
The truth......people are selling steel stocks partly due to Trump tarifs as more will get into Malaysia if they cannot get into USA cheaper
The lie......no effect
The truth......low PE and good results is no protection against losses in stock market
The lie.......low PE and good results must keep.
Good results and low PE quickly turn into high PE and bad results as soon as the environment changes.....Business sense is a good guide., not historical published results.
Good fund managers are guided more by business sense than by published results as conditions change.
The conditions for recent high margins no longer applies................you can already see that in Masteell results.
Do not let sifus with reputations lead you by the nose....Sifus have their past to protect......you have your money to protect.
In recent days, the combination of Masteel results, Trump tarifs and disclosure of potential threat from Alliance Steel has drown out the promoters shouting low PE . You have to realise that people who sell an over promoted stock are not stupid. Definately Alliance Steel is a game changer in the long term for long term investors. For shorter term investors, you have to recognise that the negative momentum is not in your favor.
It is easy for bloggers and sifus to say buy when no money is involved. Ask those sifus and bloggers to sailang if they are so sure.
Ask to see prove they sailang.
People come to i3 to promote their stocks and to defend their stocks. That is normal behavior. I3 is usuallly not a place for intellectual discussions and independent exchange of opinions. Beware that all buy opinions in i3 are biased and these people have vested interest. Unlike this blog and my sell opinion. In Malaysia, short selliing is not allowed and so you can say sell opinions in i3 are without vested, biased, and financial interests.
One more thing.........
Final decision is yours is no excuse for not having a complete and fair analysis of stocks being promoted including the risk factors and likelihood of negative impacts....what is the meaning of final decision is yours when OTB is promoting his stocks with one sided opinions? He can wash his hands?
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 50 of 61 comments
Ha.. Ha.. Ha.. Another big loser come to i3 promote sell on steel counter. Hello, the whole market drop because of bad sentiment lah. Once
this bad wind blows away will come good time. Then U will see steel counter move up like no tomorrow. The market always behave like this all the time.
2018-03-02 19:47
Not true.
OTB strategy is to buy and hold.
If wrong, there is a cut loss level to get out.
This article is given incomplete information.
2018-03-02 20:00
Another dullstupid....trying to impress the novice and newbies by splicing and superimposing truth with lies...
2018-03-02 20:52
@klci king,
u actually read the whole article????
for me, tldr so i guess must be full of holes.
2018-03-03 01:03
I can tell who has the share and who doesn't....just by reading your comments. lol
2018-03-03 01:07
"I3 is usuallly not a place for intellectual discussions and independent exchange of opinions."
It seem writer aware of this, but still he post a lot of un-professional opinions here..
2018-03-03 01:38
If Bursa keep focus on same theme why list so many counters?
Posted by Papaya Juice > Mar 3, 2018 01:05 AM | Report Abuse
Just give it a pass! Steel theme is gone! Just like furniture and export theme! Just ride the next theme!
2018-03-03 01:45
I dont want to be biase, but this article is not 100% wrong anyway.... Some points is correct
2018-03-03 03:45
The most important part in long bars is China long bars price, currently is around rmb4200 is on uptrend after CNY construction resume and winter steel production reduction is extended ( like Tangshan city, major production city) if attractive enough for Alliance Steel to export, Alliance capacity is a less worry, just m2c
2018-03-03 06:37
When I see "sifus" and analysts writing articles to promote "Buy" call, I sell. When I see "sifus" and analysts writing articles to promote "Sell" call, I buy. Provided the company is not loss-making and has decent fundamentals and prospect, this has worked well for me so far :)
2018-03-03 09:54
This author is revealing half-truth. Regulated short selling is allowed in Malaysia. Besides, although there are vested interests in those promoting steel sector, there are equally vested interest in those who called others to sell in order for them to collect at lower price. This is due to the fact that long term investors are not willing to release their shares to these new collectors
2018-03-03 11:08
After all, if everyone is able to see the same value of a stock counter at the same time, then do you think there is any potential for the growth in price of the counter? Thanks to those who fail to see the value of the stock earlier, the stock can conti ue to grow
2018-03-03 11:13
Brightsmsrt is giving an honest opinion promoter just write no money is involved
2018-03-03 11:29
I agree with me 101%
MrPauper Brightsmart is not so bright and smart after all.
03/03/2018 11:14
2018-03-03 11:39
MrPauper This author is revealing half-truth. Regulated short selling is allowed in Malaysia.
======================================
Mr Pauper, you done any regulated short selling? I have not. Anyone has?
2018-03-03 12:34
The first sentence in the article itself has already revealed your intention to attack mr.otb. obviously your opinion is bias and with vested interest.
2018-03-03 15:20
brightsmart, i have not performed any short selling as i am not eligible. But certain institution and licensed individuals do. Bursa Malaysia website clearly displays this information and the short selling regulation will be relaxed to all individuals soon subject to approval.
I agree that G Soros is smart and bright, but I highly doubt whether you are even half as bright and smart as him. No offence but just my 2 cents
2018-03-03 15:42
Malaysia’s Steel Export by Country
http://seaisi.org/seaisi2017/file/file/full-paper/Malaysia%20Country%20Report.pdf
Asean 41%
Korea 14 %
India 8 %
Japan 4 %
Taiwan 3 %
China 3 %
Australia 3 %
EU 3%
USA 2% ---------------------------------- HAHAHA (negligible)
Others 19%
Plus, import figures of steel are much larger in Malaysia compared to export figures of steel, so Malaysian government's imposing 15% tax on import of steel bars or products into Malaysia has a much greater impact on malaysian steel makers.
2018-03-03 16:04
Sell... increase cost as increase px of natural gas kicks in.. eats intp profit msrgin
2018-03-03 16:35
The Lone Ranger
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9lf76xOA5k
Writing the above piece makes me feel like The Lone Ranger......reliving all those child hood years watching Lone Ranger TV series.
In share market, anyone writing selling recommendations have to be prepared to be the Lone Ranger , hiyoh Silver.......!!
2018-03-03 17:14
I like the theme song....
that's me.....the Lone Ranger and his white horse....bang bang bang bang....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vavK9JFQfVw
2018-03-03 17:16
Otb,
mind sharing how u define the stock have enough margin safety ? and how u define your target price to take profit . Im interested to learn from u
2018-03-03 18:38
OTB's rules always solid like bullet....
Only the fool or hero acting dumbs trying to twist the fact.
Dont feel sad lar OTB sir ... those attack u ain't god , they are normal human...every human can make mistake or perhap sometimes jealousy .
Cheer la , the year still young .... kikiki
2018-03-03 23:49
david_tan > Mar 2, 2018 07:38 PM | Report Abuse
brightsmart,
Your view on Masteel is incorrect. You have not done your homework correctly prior to presenting your opinion.
===============
and if you think this stock gives you good value for your money, to buy or hold, good luck to you. I have given you my opinion.
ps....this stock already given two bonus issues, do not neglect to do the necessary adjustments in your calculations
ps....steel as its raw material? what are you smoking or you commenting about Choo Bee?
2018-03-04 02:27
Till now koon bee is still the best stock winning formula in the mkt..just one reminder...dont be too excited n too serious on his sky high tp..most of them never come true...
2018-03-04 07:50
Agreed not all of them come true.
I will be happy as long as I make money year after year.
Buy Hengyuan at 5.95, target price is 15.00.
Sell them at 17.48.
At least this stock came true.
Thank you.
Ooi
2018-03-04 08:58
OTB has been making big money year after year and lives life with dignity whereas stockmanmy a.k.a brightsmart has to resort to PLP Uncle Koon to make a living. That is all I know
2018-03-04 09:03
not vested in masteel, but still i applaud your confidence for defending your points even though some of them might be incorrect.
1. David is correct in the sense that Masteel uses mainly scrap iron (besi buruk) to manufacture Rebar.
2. the big 4 rebar manufacturers are not exporting to US, and they are protected by anti-dumping measures in the local front.
If you can read mandarin i suggest you to read up on leoting's blogpost.
Good luck.
From an avid finance news & market news reader
2018-03-04 09:42
“The impact for us can be nothing but positive because higher steel prices are good for us,” Chief Financial Officer Marion Britton said in a phone interview, adding that Mississauga, Ontario-based Russel has operations in both Canada and the U.S. and does very little cross-border trade. “We are not impacted like a Canadian steel mill because we don’t ship anything to the U.S.,” she said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-02/this-canadian-steel-company-is-giving-trump-tariffs-thumbs-up
2018-03-04 12:18
Steel trade is the best business to do. we don't assume when the steel price will raise highly. BigBits providing live updates on Steel price it helps you to get the best deals on buying steel. I tried it to know steel Price in Ramgarh
http://www.bigbits.in/steel/ramgarh-steel-rates/
2019-02-26 16:33
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Zhuge_Liang
Q4 2017 net profit = 12,115
Q4 2016 net profit = 4,031
A growth of 201%
This is the correct comparison.
Not compare Q4 2017 against Q3 2017.
2018-03-02 19:46