Bursa Malaysia Stock Watch
Plantations (Neutral) - Inventory rises for the first time since Sep
kltrader
Publish date: Tue, 13 Mar 2012, 10:09 AM
kltrader
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Plantations (Neutral)
Inventory rises for the first time since Sep
Source: HLIB Research 13 March 2012
Inventory rises for the first time since Sep
- Palm oil inventory in Feb 12 rose by 2% mom to 2.06m tonnes (for the first time since Sep 11), mainly on the back of: (1) A 12.6% mom decline in exports; and (2) A 42.2% mom decline in domestic consumption, which altogether more than offset a 7.9% decline in production.
- Exports fell by 12.6% mom to 1.21m tonnes in Feb 12, mainly due to decline from Egypt (-64.4%), Singapore (-8.8%), United States (-19.4%), Pakistan (-69.7%), Netherlands (-16.7%); partially mitigated by higher exports to China (+39%) and India (+2.6%). We believe the decline in exports was partly due to the delay in the issuance of tax free palm oil export quotas, which started only from 7 Feb onwards. This, coupled with lesser working days for the month may have resulted in less CPO being exported.
- We are keeping our average CPO price forecast of RM3,000/tonne for 2012 as we believe: (1) CPO price will likely weaken once La Nina subsides (expected by mid-2012); (2) The current global economic headwinds may curb demand and prices of palm oil; and (3) Production recovery, expected to begin by March.
- Top picks are CBIP (BUY; TP: RM3.03) and Tradewinds Plantation (BUY; TP: RM5.04).
Source: HLIB Research 13 March 2012
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