Trying to Make Sense Bursa Investments
The World and Malaysia Under the COVID Siege: Setting Our Expectations Right
Over the last few days a number of things related to the lockdown in Malaysia happened. First, on Sunday (January 24), a letter was leaked out that was mentioning the possibility of a total lockdown (like the one from March-May 2020) after February 4 (source). On Monday (January 25), Noor Hisham made a surprising comment, which was interpreted by some media outlets as meaning that the current MCO will end on February 4, and it will be replaced by a 3-month CMCO (source). This made me realize how misunderstood the situation was (and continues to be) - not just by the average Malaysian, but by some in the Malaysian media space as well. Additionally, on a regular basis I hear and read comments about how the vaccines are coming and they will save us. Here's how the situation actually looks like - I am warning you in advance, it's not pretty, so if you are feeling particularly optimistic about the future and do not want to have your elevated hopes crushed, please stop reading.
In the past I have written twice about the vaccination campaign and the potential end of the COVID pandemic - first in the beginning of December 2020 here, and then in the beginning of January 2021 here. In my earlier article, I explained why vaccines will not be enough for the population of the world in 2021, even if everything goes according to plan - and many things have not been going according to plan as I will explain below. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) just released a research which shows that the vaccination campaign in India and China may stretch until the end of 2022 (source) while most of the poorer nations won't achieve anything close to herd immunity before 2024 (source). In my latter article, I explained that there are a few major challenges and risks that the campaign for the end of the COVID crisis will face. The risks are:
1) Significant disparity between roll-outs in different regions (even more significant than the current projections are);
2) Faster mutation rate of the virus toward a strain that is more transmissible, but not necessarily less virulent;
3) Virus strain to which the current vaccine versions do not provide effective immunity;
4) Pushbacks in developed countries due to fear from vaccine side effects;
5) Production and roll-out challenges and bottlenecks (for instance, shortages of pharmaceutical glass, personal protective equipment, suitable storage space);
6) General test setbacks with vaccines and vaccine candidates.
Let's discuss each of these in detail.
1. Disparities between roll-outs in different regions
As many have undoubtedly heard by now, the vaccine roll-out has already started in some countries, in particular very rich countries. Israel - with arguably the most powerful national lobby in the world, leads the pack, as the country has already innoculated with at least 1 shot 30% of its population, with a total of approximately 45 doses per 100 people administered. The country is followed by the UAE (25 doses per 100 people), Seychelles (20 doses), and more importantly - the UK (11 doses) and the US (7.5 doses) (source). As the currently used vaccines require 2 doses, this means that the UK is 5.5% to 100% vaccination and the US is 3.75% to 100% vaccination. 100% vaccination would of course not be needed although most countries aim to have at least 80% of their populations vaccinated. The most overstocked countries, with the deepest pockets, and the strongest lobby aim to have the vaccination campaign completed by the end of 2021. The EU was planning to have it done by September 2021, but pushed back its plans due to problems with vaccine deliveries (more on this later).
However, in order for the pandemic to truly end, every country would need to have its population vaccinated. Otherwise travel and transportation will suffer for a prolonged period of time. Here is how the graphics prepared by the EIU look like for Asia and Africa, where approximately 75% of the world population lives:
(Source)
(Source)
Let's put this in table format to make it easier to comprehend. The table includes all the 15 countries in Asia and Africa that are within the top 20 in terms of population in the world (only 5 non-Asian and non-African countries are in the top 20 of the world in terms of population - USA, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and Germany):
| Country | Rank in the world by population | Projected end of COVID vaccination campaign |
| China | 1 | Q3 2022 |
| India | 2 | Q4 2022 |
| Indonesia | 4 | Q3 2023 |
| Pakistan | 5 | Q3 2024 |
| Nigeria | 7 | Q2 2023 |
| Bangladesh | 8 | Q4 2023 |
| Japan | 11 | Q2 2022 |
| Ethiopia | 12 | Q2 2022 |
| Philippines | 13 | Q4 2023 |
| Egypt | 14 | Q2 2022 |
| Vietnam | 15 | Q2 2022 |
| DR Congo | 16 | Q2 2023 |
| Turkey | 18 | n/a |
| Iran | 19 | n/a |
| Thailand | 20 | Q3 2022 |
In other words, the world will not be anywhere near to returning to normalcy at least until the end of 2022 - if other things I will discuss below go according to plan. Note that the projections above are for 60% population coverage.
2. Faster mutation rates towards a more transmissible variant.
First, it is important to understand why easily transmissible variant is more dangerous, and in fact more deadly in terms of absolute numbers, than a more virulent variant for instance.
This video explains that very well - go to 2 min 30 sec in the video.
By now there are at least a handful of variants of the COVID-19 virus which are considered more transmissible. Of these, the most widespread as of now is the so-called UK variant, named B.1.1.7, which is by now the dominant variant in large parts of the UK, and it is expected to become the dominant variant in big parts of Europe and in the US relatively soon (source, source). There are varying reports, showing this variant to be anywhere between 10% and 70% more transmissible than the current worldwide dominant variants, and recently the UK issued reports that it might also be more deadly - by as much as 30% (source).
The transmissibility of a virus can be determined in two ways. The first sign is based on genomic sequencing of a significant number of the samples that have returned positive. By sequencing the virus variants in these samples, scientists can determine which the dominant variant in an area is. Due to natural selection, the virus variant that is more transmissible becomes the dominant variant over time. The second sign is by estimating the viral load in a sample. The viral load shows the amount of viruses within an area on the swab. The higher the viral load, the more transmissible the virus is. Both of these methods of estimation show that the UK variant is significantly more transmissible. Based on the first sign method, there are currently multiple other variants of concern being carefully analyzed, including a few in the United States (source, source).
3. Virus strain to which the current vaccine versions do not provide effective immunity.
However, while the economic damage the UK variant can bring (and is currently bringing to the UK) can be devastating, it is not the one that is of the most major concern to the scientists around the world. The South Africa variant - B.1.351, and the Brazil variant (in fact a few slightly different variants from the lineage B.1.1.28), are more worrisome. These two variants of the virus appear to be able to escape at least partially the immunity created towards older variant of the virus on which all the currently available vaccines have been developed (source). That is the reason why vaccine makers started reworking their vaccines urgently (source).
The vaccines produced by Moderna and Pfizer are based on a technology that could potentially be adjusted more easily towards new mutations of the virus. For instance, BioNTech has said that it can change its vaccine within 6 weeks (source). Unfortunately, that is not the case with the technology utilized by the rest of the vaccine manufacturers, and Pfizer + Moderna have currently existing contracts for delivery of a little more than 1.2 billion doses sufficient for 600 million people, based on Bloomberg data referenced above.
4. Fear from vaccines' side effects.
In my article from Devember, I shared some researches that showed unwillingness of people to get vaccinated, especially in Europe. The researches were conducted in June (source), July-August (source), and September (source) 2020. According to some more recent studies, things haven't changed much. In fact, the willingness to vaccinate has dropped in all the surveyed country except for the United States between October and December 2020:
(Source)
Even more worrisome, only in Brazil more than 50% of the people have responded with "Strongly Agree":
(Source)
5. Vaccine production problems and setbacks.
Pfizer and AstraZeneca announced delays in their deliveries to the EU and Canada, prompting a number of European countries to threaten legal action (source, source, source, source, source, source).
We should be reminded that these are the early stages of the vaccination campaign, and such problems are expected. However, as the campaign rolls out globally and delivery logistics become even more complicated, things may turn even more worrisome if quick measures are not taken.
Of more concern may be another problem which has resulted in Sweden pausing payments to Pfizer (source). Without going into unnecessary details, the problem stems from the fact that initially each vial of Pfizer's vaccine was expected to contain 5 doses of the vaccine. However, later on it was discovered that 6 doses could be extracted from each vial with the usage of a special syringe called "low dead volume syringe". Pfizer has managed to persuade regulators in the US and in the EU that 6 doses are available per vial, and the company delivers vials based on the 6-dose presumption. In other words - less vials are expected to be delivered than initially planned (source). Unfortunately, the low dead volume syringes are in short supply, and even their biggest producer - the United States, cannot source enough (source).
6. Vaccine tests problems.
In my article from December I mentioned the failed Sanofi/GSK vaccine trials (source). Unfortunately, just 2 days ago Merck also discontinued its vaccine program due to insufficiently strong immune response post-vaccination (source).
At the same time, many questions remain regarding the Russian Gamaleya vaccine, as insufficient trial test data has been provided (source). The Sinovac vaccine showed different efficacy rates in different trials, varying from 50.4% in the Brazil trial (source) to 91.25% in the Turkey trial (source), raising questions.
Conclusion
I consider myself a realist. I like to refer to data and information before making decisions. Unfortunately the existing data is darker than what I have expected. 2021 appears to be going to be economically more damaging than initially predicted due to the more contagious variants of the virus, requiring stricter lockdowns for longer periods of time (or alternatively - a complete halt of international travel). The vaccination campaign is so far not going according to plan, and especially the EU is lagging significantly behind its plans, while the US only sped up with the coming to power of Joe Biden last week. Developing, populous countries are not expected to have their vaccination campaign done before 2022-2023, while third-world countries are looking for a timeline sometimes beyond 2025, while at the background the virus mutates to variants that escape the previously acquired immune response. It will be best if we all prepare ourselves for the long haul.
Important disclaimer: Any views expressed are for informational and discussion purposes only. None of this information is intended as, and must not be understood as, a source of advice. It is imperative that you always do your own research and that you make any decisions based on your personal situation and your own personal understanding.
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Discussions
19 people like this. Showing 43 of 43 comments
Hi lkoky, thank you for your comment.
Yes, absolutely. My article was more focused on the timeline of the pandemic rather than on what we all need to do, but we certainly will need to wear masks and follow all the other precautions we have been following up to now, even after the vaccine is rolled out. This is the new normal.
2021-01-27 19:20
Excellent article! Thank you Ben for putting it out clearly for all to understand that this pandemic will be around for another 3 to 4 years at the minimum as far us malaysia is concerned.
2021-01-27 20:20
@Ben Quick question- 36M SBL shares returned to EPF on the 22nd equates to more than the total number of shorts recovered the last 3 weeks! Has someone given up and left the party without actually shorting?
2021-01-27 20:30
This means nothing!
Humans have forgotten how to survive and are now dependent on self-proclaimed experts, media and data. These are elements of the CORPORATE world to control the herd mindset.
The ulterior motive is to reap profit from fatalities, similar to vultures hovering over carcasses!
The only solution to this pandemic is to ignore it go about doing what we have been before the pandemic. If you are going to get sick and drop dead, it is god's will.
No man lives forever!
2021-01-27 20:33
Ben, thanks for the time and effort you have spent in piecing this insightful and sobering article. Its sad that vaccines is just part of the equation in curbing this dreadful pandemic. WE have to live life and adjust to the new norm.
2021-01-27 20:59
LimitUp, Anthem2, PunTatBerSiul, calvin69, katsul51, Goldberg, thank you for your comments.
Anthem2, I suppose your question is related to the activity regarding Top Glove. I am doing some research right now and I hope to have something posted over the weekend. It is true that these shares have not been bought back.
PunTatBerSiul, unfortunately, as someone whose whole family went through COVID, with serious implications, I must strongly disagree with you. I urge you to not try your luck with the disease.
Goldberg, unfortunately the vaccine is indeed not an all-around solution for the reasons mentioned in the article (and others not mentioned due to lack of time). We still need to follow all of the safety procedures - wearing masks, washing hands as frequently as possible, and keeping our social distance from people outside of our household. Fortunately, the climate of Malaysia allows us to ventilate our homes properly and to potentially go out and breathe fresh air frequently.
2021-01-27 21:37
oh malaysia mco policies flip flop ..suppose to be strict policies loosen too earlier ..that why cases increase dramatically.. look like it we have to rely on your own perhaps looking on natural remedies instead to increase immunity. There is study about using honey and nigella for covid treatment . I'm no expert on medical field so I leave link below for interested party
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOwa6-EOohI
2021-01-27 21:48
Very informative article. I learned something new, low dead space syringe. Thank you very much for your efforts.
2021-01-27 22:52
leeruzi7, darksith, Tobby, thank you for your comments.
leeruzi7, there are a number of experimental medications right now. Let's hope that something scientifically proven will work out, at least for the more severe cases.
Tobby, yes, Israel is ahead of everyone, but no - they have not vaccinated 100% of their population, as you would have learned if you had read the article. Regarding the side effects, it was predictable beforehand that the world will focus on them. However, safety of the vaccines is only a problem as far as intent to vaccinate is concerned. The much bigger and more serious problems are related to the efficacy of the vaccines and the logistics related to their distribution.
2021-01-27 23:09
wonder how long will it takes for the human cattle population to comprehend this
" Number of cases are not important data. Number of deaths are the concern. All kinds of fatalities could be lumped as Covid-19. That's bullshit reporting. " ???
2021-01-27 23:18
icecool, thank you for your comment.
The comment from DickyMe you are quoting is inaccurate. The terminology of COVID-related deaths was specifically changed in order to reflect that the death cases reported are not necessarily caused by COVID itself (they rarely are), but that the deceased has been COVID positive at time of death.
2021-01-27 23:22
Pfizer-BioNTech has increased production to 2 bil Moderna min 600mil to 1bil
Don't spread fake news.
Sobering 'fact' and what you choose to only see are two different things
2021-01-27 23:22
2021-01-27 23:25
emsvsi, thank you for your comment.
Everything in the article is based on referenced sources, so kindly avoid accusations. I edited the article to reflect more precisely the information in case readers do not check the linked sources. Pfizer have tracked down contracts for the delivery of 836 million doses, and Moderna - for 461 million doses according to Bloomberg.
It would be truly incredible for the entire world if the two companies could indeed increase their production capacity, and if they could contract this additional capacity out to as many countries as possible, although even with the numbers you quote the best case scenario would be vaccines sufficient for 1.5 billion people within 2021 (a little less than 20% of the world population).
2021-01-27 23:33
Goldberg, thank you very much for sharing this article.
The most interesting thing in it is the following:
"Israel struck a deal with Pfizer (PFE) for future supply of its COVID-19 vaccine in exchange for anonymised data on Israeli’s health."
This answers the question many have been having on why Israel has access to such significant quantities of the vaccine so early on.
2021-01-27 23:37
@bentan what about us? I heard they are expecting to vaccinate the whole country by q3 2021
2021-01-27 23:44
Another interesting article Ben.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vaccines-versus-variants-israels-exit-150603838.html
2021-01-28 00:12
"Ben Tan icecool, thank you for your comment.
..... but that the deceased has been COVID positive at time of death.
27/01/2021 11:22 PM"
What caused the death? The mere presence of Covid virus after death is a convenient way of avoiding detailed analysis for medical practitioners and the virus an easy scapegoat.
WHO, medical science and governments are overreacting to this pandemic.
It should be treated just like another disease and allow people to lead their life normally.
Si lly SOPs like wearing masks, distancing, hiding under the bed, military tanks are cowa rds approach in tackling the pandemic.
One should hold the menace by it's horn.
Sentimental argument like "..what if you or your family were to contract.." does nothing but attract pity. The reality is DEATH is CERTAIN and it comes anytime uninformed in many ways.
2021-01-28 00:42
Correct Ben, vaccine rollout seem to be a big problem in this raging pandemic. Wall Street is acknowledging this fact where DJ index and Nasdaq took beating yesterday as they believe economic recovery will be severly impacted.
Stocks Drop on Concerns About Vaccine Rollout
-----------------------------------------------
Major stock indexes suffered their sharpest one-day losses since October amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution, while traders were also captivated by the frenzied trading in GameStop and other heavily shorted stocks.
2021-01-28 09:17
gloves63, thank you for your comment. According to Noor Hisham's comment from a few days ago, Malaysia's plan is to complete the vaccination program either by the end of 2021, or by early 2022 (see: https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2021/01/25/dr-noor-hisham-covid-19-vaccination-programme-expected-to-be-completed-end/1943932). Previously Khairy said that "if you are a healthy adult under 60 and not a frontline worker, it is safe to assume that your turn will come by Q3 or after." (see: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/khairy-explains-malaysias-vaccine-procurement-process-delivery-schedule). However, unless the government manages to procure more vaccines than it currently has announced, faster than announced, that might be a difficult task. In any case, Malaysia is relatively well-positions in terms of vaccine availability in comparison to many other countries around the world.
Here are the known timelines and contracts (let me know if I have missed anything):
- 12.8 million doses from Pfizer, with the following schedule: 1 million in Q1 2021, 1.7 million in Q2 2021, 5.8 million in Q3 2021, and 4.3 million in Q4 2021.
- 6.4 million doses of Gamaleya, starting from March (no specifics on the size of each batch)
- 12 million doses of Sinovac, starting from April (no specifics on the size of each batch)
- 6.4 million doses from AstraZeneca, starting from the second quarter of 2021 (no specifics on the size of each batch)
- 6.4 million doses from COVAX (no dates or specifics)
TOTAL confirmed up to now: 44 million doses (22 million people, or 68.75% of the population)
- 3.5 million doses from CanSino Biologics, ongoing negotiations (this is a 1-dose vaccine, so it will cover additional 3.5 million people, or 11% of the population)
- Negotiations with Moderna and Johnson & Johnson ongoing
If all of the deals go through, Malaysia will have vaccines sufficient for 80% of its population. The questions remaining are on:
- Schedule of the deliveries;
- Efficacy of some of the vaccines (note that for instance there are some significant concerns with the data released by Gamaleya).
Overall, I am hopeful that what Noor Hisham says is true, but based on the current situation, it seems like a really optimistic prognosis, and this is reflected in the EIU report and expected schedule I shared in the article.
Sources:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-24/southeast-asia-covid-19-vaccine-tracker-who-will-get-what-when
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/22/malaysia-procures-6point4-million-doses-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-malaysia-vaccines/malaysia-secures-184-million-doses-of-russian-chinese-covid-19-vaccines-idUSKBN29V11H
https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2021/01/26/health-ministry-malaysia-secures-18.4-million-doses-of-russian-chinese-covi/1944232
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/22/malaysia-procures-6point4-million-doses-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine.html
https://codeblue.galencentre.org/2020/12/23/malaysia-reserves-option-to-double-pfizer-vaccine-order/
2021-01-28 10:12
Goldberg, thank you very much once again for sharing this data.
It will indeed be a battle, and I believe eventually countries will start closing their borders, and imposing restrictions similar to the ones in Malaysia. In fact, just yesterday the UK announced such new restrictions. I expect other European countries to follow. The more the new variants spread, i.e. the more people travel around, the lower the effect of the vaccination campaign would be.
2021-01-28 10:16
Just learn to live with the virus mah!
Why panic leh ??
Do not do drastic thing like total lockdown, when Vaccines inoculation are just around the corner mah!
All these people who argue total lockdown, they are usually govt servants, University lecturers and retirees who do not care of other people livehoods loh !!
Think lah....Do not be silly Mah!
NO TOTAL LOCKDOWN LOH!
2021-01-28 11:17
Vaccine are here for sure mah....!!
Now even India has their own home made vaccine loh!
2021-01-28 11:20
stockraider, thank you for your comments (copied from and to a handful of other places for good measure). Clearly you haven't read the article beyond the first paragraph.
In any case, no matter if there will be a total lockdown or not, the situation remains as it is projected to be. A total lockdown can get us closer to normalcy (RMCO level) faster, no total lockdown will mean a longer period of time in a no-interstate travel environment.
2021-01-28 11:23
how do you expect lockdown will return us to normalcy when the actual virus was never even isolated all the result and actions and madness were based on this PCR test in which doesn't even isolate the virus and only test for the present of genetic material, not to mention the 50 times amplification used in these test, which is just bullshit testing.
2021-01-28 14:05
@bentan i am not referring to us, i mean United States. I heard with biden plan were talking about vaccinating whole country by 2021 Q3. What are ur insights on this?
2021-01-28 17:07
Hi Ben Tan, EPF announced acquiring top glove shares 19,459,200 on 21-1 and 36,051,480 on 22-1. Both are SBL, which means these are the shares returned by borrower. But, based on net short position from 21-1 onwards, the net short kept going up and hit 2.92%, which is at record high. How come the net short didn't go down? I assume the borrower bought 19,459,200 and 36,051,480 shares and returned them to EPF.
2021-01-28 18:23
cpchuan, thank you for your comment.
Yes, please check my recently posted article here: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-01-28-story-h1540191595-Has_the_Short_Seller_Closed_the_Big_Gloves_Short.jsp
2021-01-28 19:31
gloves63, sorry, missed responding.
The US *may* be able to inoculate enough of their population by the end of Q3 2021, yes. However, a number of things need to go right for this to happen and to have a meaningful impact:
- Vaccine production
- Vaccine logistics
- Willingness of people to vaccinate
- Virus mutations
2021-01-28 21:55
thumbs up Ben! till now we still do not know how effective the vaccine against the S.African and Brazil variants....
i think SOP is the key lo...and that involves PPE.Human just can't eradicate virus, in history of mankind only 1 virus has been eradicated.
total lock down can control the surging amount of cases which clearly our nation needs it but cannot do it for long term as this will kill the economy but then we already wasted 2 weeks of MCO 2.0(half baked MCO)
so, I think the worse is yet to come...
2021-01-30 15:36
PunTatBerSiul I thank the lord for sending us this pandemic.
28/01/2021 12:49 AM
you got lord kah ....i think no loh......
2021-01-30 19:12
Singapore HAS started Vaccination on 15Jan 2021. Thailand ? Indonesia ? Philipines ? Vietnam ? Cambodia ? Malaysia ?
2021-02-01 17:55
lavenderguy, la huat, MuttsInvestor, thank you for your comments.
lavenderguy, we finally got a confirmation on that at the end of last week. Both Novavax's vaccine and Johnson & Johnson's vaccine were shown to be less efficient against the South African variant as compared to both the "old" variant and the UK variant. It is to be expected that similar results will be shown with other vaccines. Additionally, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine performed worse in South America, where the Brazil variant is likely spreading, in line with the results reported earlier by Sinovac.
MuttsInvestor, unfortunately Singapore has the very significant advantage of deeper pockets. The price per dose Singapore has secured their vaccines at, is significantly higher than the price paid by anyone else in the region, and likely only very few other countries in the world have paid prices higher than those paid by Singapore. Thus, we cannot draw a direct comparison this way. For instance, neither Japan, nor Australia, nor Korea, have started their vaccination campaigns yet.
2021-02-02 13:09
I would add, the sinovac vaccine also performed poorly in Brazil 50.4% efficacy (where the P1 Brazilian variant has its home). Sinovac vaccine did much better in UAE 86% .
There is data from Pfizer and Moderna... antibodies raised from their vaccine have >10 fold lower binding affinity to covid spike protein containing all the mutations found within the Spike protein of the S.African variant. How much of a reduction in protection this translates too is unknown but at a guess it is significant.
The problem with 50% efficacy... is that the virus will not be stoped by the vaccine alone. Additional measure must be taken.
2021-02-06 23:57
Good article Ben.
Seems like its gona be a long battle.......longer that market generally expects.......
2021-02-10 11:56
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lkoky
Excellent article!!!
The fact of the matter is, most western countries have totally lost control on the pandemics, and hence pin all their hope on vaccine!!
This is pandemics that requires multiple approaches to bring it under control. Vaccine alone isnt the solution, at best just one of the solutions.
Even with vaccinated, face mask n physical distant still have to be observe, as none of the vaccine producers proclaimed vaccinated adult wont transmit covid-19
2021-01-27 17:45