(July 25): Former US president Donald Trump’s selection of JD Vance as his running mate may signal that a second term could be far less business friendly than corporate dealmakers had hoped.

The Ohio Senator — whom Trump chose as his vice presidential nominee last week — has opinions on antitrust regulation that run counter to the traditional light-touch Republican approach that is championed by groups including the US Chamber of Commerce.

Vance supports stricter filing rules for mergers, and has signed on to legislation eliminating tax breaks for mega mergers. He has also raised concerns about foreign companies seeking to take over US manufacturers, including Nippon Steel’s bid to buy US Steel Corp, and Big Tech acquisitions such as Meta Platforms Inc’s purchase of Instagram and WhatsApp.

“He wasn’t raised in the sort of consensus of the last 30 years, which is that Republicans exist to be the partisan shield for corporate power,” Rachel Bovard, the vice president of programmes at the Conservative Partnership Institute, said in an interview. “The traditional Republican views on these things — those views are on notice.”

The Vance pick highlights a larger fight about mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Republican politics, which had already begun to change during the first Trump administration, according to Adam Candeub, a Michigan State law professor. He said this tension is playing out between “the Chamber of Commerce never-think-about-regulating-corporations and this newer approach”.

“It’s taking a look at how industry affects working people and ensuring that Americans get good jobs,” said Candeub, who served in Trump’s Commerce Department and Justice Department.

A venture-capitalist-turned-politician, Vance, 39, rose to fame with his memoir Hillbilly Elegy, which depicted his poor rural upbringing and his mother’s struggles with drug addiction.

Since being elected to the Senate in 2022, Vance has teamed up with Democrats to propose an end to tax breaks for large corporate mergers. In a comment to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) last summer, Vance praised the FTC and the Department of Justice for revamping the details that companies looking at an M&A deal must provide. That merger review revision, which hasn’t been finalised, drew condemnation from dozens of trade groups, including the American Investment Council, which advocates on behalf of the private equity industry.

Vance has also challenged Big Tech, questioning whether Meta should own both Facebook and Instagram, or whether Google needed to buy YouTube. He also expressed concern about Google’s Gemini AI project.

‘Separate’ market verticals

“We want to ensure that new entrants can change these things to promote as much competition as possible, and you actually want to separate all of these market verticals as much as possible,” Vance said at a conference co-hosted by Bloomberg Beta in February. “That’s where I think antitrust is probably the most useful way to think about a solution.”

Vance has even praised President Joe Biden’s head of the FTC, Lina Khan. Khan, the youngest-ever person to helm the FTC, has reinvigorated antitrust enforcement under Biden, bringing a record number of challenges to deals and earning her the ire of the Chamber of Commerce and other business focused groups.

The Office of Vice President hasn’t traditionally taken much of a role in antitrust policy. But Biden’s White House made antitrust a key economic priority with the creation of the Competition Council for Cabinet-level officials to meet once a quarter, setting up a mechanism that could be continued in a second Trump administration.

Picking Vance is “a huge signal” that Trump intends to keep a sceptical eye on corporate consolidation, according to Garrett Ventry, a Republican strategist and former congressional staffer involved in the House Judiciary antitrust subcommittee’s investigation into Big Tech. Ventry said the next space to watch will be who the campaign discusses nominating for antitrust enforcement.

“Personnel is the policy,” he said.

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