A fruit vendor pushing a cart in front of a portrait of King Maha Vajiralongkorn in Bangkok, Thailand. The People’s Party was formed last week after the Constitutional Court disbanded Move Forward, an anti-establishment party that surprisingly won the most seats in last year’s election. That group, whose leader is a 37-year-old tech entrepreneur, now represents the biggest threat to Thailand’s royalists and powerful business interests that control large swathes of the economy.

(Aug 15): The ouster of Thailand’s leader less than 12 months after taking office makes one thing clear: The royalist establishment that has engineered long stretches of military-backed rule over the past two decades still holds all the power.

Srettha Thavisin on Wednesday became the fourth prime minister to be ousted by the Constitutional Court in the past two decades, all of them allies of former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, who was toppled in a 2006 military coup. What’s different this time, however, is that Thaksin is now in an alliance with his former conservative adversaries, part of a deal struck last year following an election that ended the nine-year rule of a former army chief.

The question now is whether that unwieldy coalition will stick together when Thai lawmakers meet on Friday to pick another prime minister. So far, it appears that will be the case: The Thai-language newspaper Thairath reported that the Thaksin-backed Pheu Thai party, the biggest in the coalition and the second-largest in Parliament, would pick Chaikasem Nitisiri, 75, as its new prime ministerial candidate.

Thaksin’s party has several reasons to stick with the pro-royalist conservatives. For one, he cut a deal last year to return to Thailand after more than a decade in exile while facing corruption charges, and is set to be a completely free man at the end of this month. And two, he’s facing a fresh charge of lese majeste — a law that protects King Maha Vajiralongkorn and other top royals from criticism — that could see him back in detention if he joins with the opposition People’s Party, which is seeking to reform the law.

The People’s Party was formed last week after the same Constitutional Court disbanded Move Forward, an anti-establishment party that surprisingly won the most seats in last year’s election. That group, whose leader is a 37-year-old tech entrepreneur, now represents the biggest threat to Thailand’s royalists and powerful business interests that control large swathes of the economy.

Entrenched institutions

“Today’s verdict and the verdict on Aug 7 should remind us that there are entrenched institutions that continue to check the power of elected forces in Thailand,” said Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “Until a broader consensus is reached on their overreach, no real democracy can take root in Thailand.”

All of this is bad for business. Thailand has seen average annual economic growth of below 2% over the past decade, in no small part due to military meddling in politics.

Thailand’s benchmark stock index — among the world’s worst performers this year — fell as much as 1.3% on Thursday before trimming losses to close 0.4% lower. The baht pared gains after the ruling but closed 0.6% higher against the dollar.

“Uncertainty looks set to remain entrenched while economic populism is likely to become worse, with negative repercussions for investor confidence and the country’s long-run prospects,” said Gareth Leather, a senior Asia economist at Capital Economics.

One unknown is whether Thaksin’s Pheu Thai will hang on to the top job. Under the Constitution, it has two candidates who can now become the prime minister, but neither is a great option: Chaikasem has dealt with serious health issues, and the other is Thaksin’s 37-year-old daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who only got involved in politics a few years ago.

Top conservative

Another top candidate is Anutin Charnvirakul, whose Bhumjaithai Party is currently the second largest in the coalition. An advocate of legalising cannabis, leading to the proliferation of shops in Bangkok and other tourist hotspots selling marijuana in all different forms, Anutin is seen as a staunch royalist.

“Today, the game is to make Pheu Thai feel that it has to step back, not take the premiership, and bring the Bhumjaithai Party in and let it swallow Pheu Thai up,” said Stithorn Thananithichot, a director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok’s Institute in Bangkok. “Bhumjaithai will become the top conservative party.”

If the royalists can manage to absorb Thaksin’s party and coalesce around Bhumjaithai, the question is whether they can actually win an election — something they have failed to do this century. During last year’s vote, the predecessor to the People’s Party — a group that wants to make the Constitution more democratic and amend the law that forbids criticism of the king — won more seats than the Thaksin-backed Pheu Thai for the first time.

New Constitution

The People’s Party disagreed in principle with the court’s power to unseat a prime minister, Parit Wacharasindhu, a party lawmaker, said adding issues such as ethical violation should be left to the judgement of the people.

“The party believes the situation today will make all sides and all political parties see the urgency of drafting a new Constitution, and review the power and responsibilities of the charter court and independent agencies,” he told reporters on Thursday.

Yet, as Wednesday’s events demonstrated yet again, winning an election in Thailand doesn’t amount to much. Royalist judges and generals still retain immense powers to boot out elected politicians, a reality that won’t change until there is a fundamental shift in the political system.

“The new type of coup is to use the court,” said Paul Chambers, a lecturer at Thailand’s Naresuan University who has written books on Thailand’s military. “Thailand is not really a democracy. This is just a camouflage of autocracy.”