Chrissy's Blog
WILL GHLSYS BOOM BECAUSE OF ALLIBABA SPECTACULAR VALUATION?
Goh Christine
Publish date: Wed, 17 Sep 2014, 09:05 AM
Goh Christine
0 13
All materials published here are prepared by Christine Goh
Essense No 1.
GHLSYS SHORTAGE OF SHARES- NOW THE BONUS ISSUES WILL INCREASE THEIR LIQUIDITY.
If the share value were to be allowed to adjust, there are always shares that are available to everybody. Sure, it will be expensive or cheaper, but always available to buyers and seller to match. Price gouging often hurts investors despite their sympathetic intention. Stock prices allowed to change rapidly, yes, they do. Value plunged upon hearing news that the tsunami has hit Japan. Ghlsys value plunged. Upon knowing Ghlsys mergers announced, their shares rocketed. This price swing does not due to supply and demand issues rather than investor irrational behavior that hardly can be explained. Looking at the other side of it, all sellers and buyer can able to match, the demand and supply is efficiently managed by the market. So, when we hear someone saying the price jump just before they buy or the value drops just when the click the button, these are only a misperception.
While they are buyers willing to pay for a lower price, there is also someone willing to sell at that price. The company fundamentals don't change every day, while it may appear to be like price manipulation,its simply marginal traders are trying to do the same thing as others do. If an investor thinks that it is a good time to buy or sell , chances are that others do too. And that's why the price moves are usually adverse, everybody is doing the same thing at the same time. As we invest in a company, I don't spend time trying to beat the market, they are not the one to beat. There are always supply and demand to be matched. Instead, I will try to figure out how news and events will affect the supply and demand to this company and use that knowledge to trade with. And I will profit in return. There is always a hidden message from Ghlsys all the while. It is how we can explore all the available news that they have in their records from day one.If I am looking at the trends recently, the shortage of shares is obvious to me as at today.
Essense No 2.
GHLSYS HAS MANAGED TO REACH THE TARGET PRICE OF RM1.12. WHAT NEXT?
Every investors dream is to make a small fortune in the stock market. Are there a short cut around? I have been trying for years. But it is much easier to pick a great stock over the years of long term investing. However, any company that wants to stay successful need a time to build up their business. It must build up their foundation over time, invest in new products, retain their good employees and keep looking for good opportunity that is beneficial to their business. It must continue to grow and bring in revenue year after year. Sounds familiar? Yes, it is. How about time? Will it happen overnight? Of course not. Over the time they will be known. They will make themselves known because they have done things right. How can we take advantage of it? Patience. True, patience will eventually bring huge fortune to the investors. Forget the noises. Pace yourself. While forgetting all the companies that we have never heard of, the meaning of on a gain one day and a drop the next. We can have an option to sleep soundly and smile happily.
I look at a company that are good yesterday, better today and greater tomorrow. There are no guarantees, at least we invest in companies that we know and we understand. The company they are in the right sectors, honest reporting and proven track record of success. In return, they are dedicated building real wealth with us. They are working out day and night while we are watching them grow. Eventually the result may be not only wealth, we have own a part of their business, learned the business and earned every penny in return.
Ghlsys have mentioned in 2012, they will acquire a company in 2013. They have done it. Last year, they said they will double their profits and are trying looking at another acquisition. Will they prove it again?
Essense No 3.
GHLSYS HAS SUCCESSFULLY CAPTURE THE ATTENTION OF FUNDAMENTAL INVESTORS.
Recently we have witnessed that more and more Chinese giant companies are some actively snapping up opportunities in this region especially in South East Asia. In Malaysia these super rich companies are snapping up lands, buildings, good companies and private Joint ventures. One of the company is Alibaba Group in technology sectors and Country Garden Property in property development. Alibaba itself have been aggressively penetrated South East Asia due to the underdeveloped experience and huge opportunities for these nations to offer a Chinese product in this region. Notable moves that joining the rush is Japanese internet company.
While the government of these nations is encouraging the cashless society, they did not have the speed and benchmark as these giants have, like Alibaba and Tencent can do. To facilitate the buying and selling their products and goods, they have to first set up the ecosystem. Since they are already committed their goals in these countries on their expansion trails, they are well ahead of western company that may be joining the next rush. They have to collaborate with local companies to have an easier access and manners. In the near future, the activities will be more likely to be notable. The first necessary step is to ACQUIRE.
Essense No 4.
ASEAN TRANSITION TO CASHLESS SOCIETIES ARE GAINING MOMENTUM.
Social efficiency will bring tremendous progress to new edge business. Only the best brainers and best business corporation will ensure the success of most business sectors in Malaysia. Government can initiate but mostly has failed because it is too complex and hard to penetrate by certain conditions that most people know. Not only MSC has not progressed, most of the corridor that regards to Mission 2020 corridors, is not progressing well because of complex regulation imposed on business societies. MSC is too diversified and outdated. It has stopped chasing the trends. It is mainly used as a platform to realize Mission 2020. To focus on CORE business is very important.
The technology transition is changing fast. Too fast that what we can imagine. The Government has launched many Corridors. Mostly has not progressed well. We all understand why. The only Corridors that are beginning to show results is Iskandar Corridor, Johor. That is also because of the influx of Large Foreign Investors,including Large Chinese Corporation like Country Garden Property and etc. They are very efficient and focus on their core business. They are serious and know what they want. Without their participation, there is no way to find the speed of result and progress in Iskandar, Johor. Technology will change the way we live. That is the future. If you can do and detect something earlier than anyone else,you will have the advantage to be successful.Now that the Titans of the internet has begun theirs acquisition trail, the transition may be faster than what we can imagine.
The migration of cashless societies through technology will set a benchmark to collaborate with the aim of universal social development and progress, not only our Government need to implement it, it must be blended in the ecosystem before the GST program begins. GST cannot be implemented effectively without these mechanisms. The new WAVE IS COMING.
Essense No 5.
EVEN CHARLIE MUNGER DESCRIBE INTERNET THING IS DISRUPTIVE TO TRADITIONAL BUSINESS MODEL.
Owning the customers, will be key to success in most businesses. A rising tide of internet technology will definitely threaten the traditional businesses. It is a revolution. This is the transition from now to the future lifestyles of new aged population, young generation societies and cashless societies. In the past, we were focusing on traditional business that monopolize the market easily, such as financial and consumer retailer sectors. I have seen the threat as real. Technology innovation will disrupt the industries in the coming years. The scale of impact of changing technology innovation has begun to emerge. They began to eat at the lunch of their dominance. The technology savvy companies have been used to shake up the traditional finance and certain consumer retailers.
They are disrupting their active management industries. Once these INTERNET TITANS launching their financial services into their web platform, there will be more disruption coming to threaten their conservatism. The music of greater prospects of competition is a fortune to innovative technology titans at this moment. Perhaps it is for the traditional businesses to wake up and to improve their services ( instead of customers lining up and stand for hours ) and begin to understand the power of technology can take their lunch away easily now. This fortune is real and is COMING. The ecosystem of technology is penetrating South East Asia. The fortune of this transition is REAL.The UNIQUE combination of Ghl and E Pay is not only focused on dollars and cents. LOOK BEYOND.
Essense No 6.
GHLSYS IS CATCHING UP WITH REGIONAL GIANTS VALUATION FASTER THAN WE IMAGINED
What is the difference between MOL and GHL? What is the real value to determine both that bring fortune to the founder of this company? MOL has a revenues of around 400 million as reported in their announcement. But not their profit is seen. So what is the catalyst to differentiate both company's real value? In another way GHL is estimated to announce their revenues in the region around 120 million this financial year. Conservatively. If there are a suprise of upside, it will be even more interesting.This is according to the latest net research report. So, now that both the potential of the technology company has been put in papers. I notice that MOL is valued based on their branding and they are longer in the market compared to the GHL, because their merger aged is around four months and relatively young.
I trust MOL valuation of 18 times more than GHL is acceptable.Because it will indirectly hints the real value of GHLSYS. Nobody is stupid in the financial market. It is the future earnings that dictate the valuation today. Beyond that, all bases for understanding the business and knowledge about the internet technology that will soon make a great impact in the region. This is real and it comes to facts. Nothing is not transparent. Especially with the coming IPO of Alibaba Group that valued at hundreds of times more than these two company mentioned. Yes, of course Alibaba Group is very much larger than both Malaysian company. But there is one factor is the same here, the high expectation of this sector. The Rich and Famous is seeking these type of companies. They shared the same vision. They have confidence in the shift of social responsibility. More and more FOREIGN FUNDS are looking at GHL. Because they are still no nearer competitors at the moment. And they are on the right track. THE TIME WILL COME to prove this. Base on fact and figures. And there will be a huge premium to be tagged on GHLSYS.
Essense No 7.
GHLSYS HAS SUCCESSFULLY CREATING FORTUNE TO THEIR SHAREHOLDERS IN 2014.
As you are reading this, perhaps you have a same common goal to build up your finances for you and your family. There are plenty of resources that can provide more information and knowledge for everyone to to succesful. A surest way is to build an enormous fortune is to acquire a business that has good characteristics. They are 1. Good returns. 2. Sustainable. 3. Competitive edge. This is only achievable if a person itself has good characteristics and good attitudes to attain the said good fortune. A good character will attain fortunes from a vehicle that will allow them to earn more money than their labor alone could. Didn't notice the pattern? Most of private equity firm started in just this manner. In order to get a true fortune most private entrepreneurs want to own as much of their company as possible. Like Ghlsys Simon Loh. He never sells a single share in his history in Ghl and E-Pay. That is a good example of a good characteristic to build a business. He is confident of the future of his company. Did you ever see a successful businessman ever trade his own company shares?
There are so many successful entity founders wanting to own more than ever. They are real genuine company builders. Their company is worth more than anything else. As the information and knowledge of successful tips are easily available in just a click away, why there are so few of people cannot able to find a good fortune? I have to say that, in order to achieve a fortune , one must have a good characteristic, minus that is will be "misfortune" to oneself. I wish all investors and traders all the best in building a good characteristic in investing and a good attitude in finding the long lasting fortune.
CIMB TP OF RM 1.60
Now that Ghlsys has attracted CIMB target price of RM 1.60 in their coverage recently, I believe more financial institutions will show the same move, hence Ghlsys will be in the wider screen to more retail and investors interest in the future.
THE END
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Discussions
8 people like this. Showing 50 of 90 comments
guys and girls , maybe this can help as referring .....thanks :)
Posted by scjm > Jul 20, 2014 01:20 PM | Report Abuse
price had retraced to 87/88 a solid support level offering a good option to renter and accumulate the shares; indeed there was buying interest at this level.
this is an uptrending stock so it is very likely that the price will advance and go higher than 87/88. as we await for wave 5 to begin. to be frank, we would only know on hindsight (no honest analysts dare say they would be able to predict the timing). then our tp would be 1.03/1.12/1.27 (for the adventurous).
2014-07-21 22:42
hey chris chris....
hahahahah.......non stop laughing: GHL - Alibaba alibaba.......
wakakakakakaka.... cant stop ad
2014-07-21 22:45
abang duit ar......u keep promoted at urs forum isit ? u help me push and eat kah last minutes ? kikikiki
walor ...no wonder suddenly thumps up ..... i m not laughing gor..... so....u know i know lar.....hahaha
2014-07-21 22:52
hahahahahah.....
funnnnnnnnny Chirs...beh dong liao...... hahahahahahhahaha
since u touch the keyword ad..... is impossible for not to help u rite????
tell me wat price u want????
but must stop laughing first....hahahahahaha......hehehehehehehe cant stop la lovely....
2014-07-21 22:55
Yeo, do you know that chris has her own blog? Once you go through her blog, you know that she has tremendous forte in technical analysis. I am amazed by her charting skill. Nobody can beat the uptrend chart at least for now.
I would look forward more on her contribution in this forum on her charting skills. As i said, it is amazing charting skills.
2014-07-21 22:56
Hi stockoperator.... how can I access to Chris's personal blog? I wanna learn more about GHL System. Yes. She is terribly well in charting skill. I think she is the part time and full time promoter for GHL company. I would look forward more on her contribution too.
keep up the great efforts, Chris Sy...............
wish u all the best Mr.stockoperator
2014-07-21 23:01
http://chrissyconn.blogspot.com/
Is it amazing? well i hope chris will offer more time to do it here.
2014-07-21 23:09
wah...awesome...very informative write up....
well done Chris Sy!!!!!
hope to read more from you about GHL System latest update.
by the way, are you a banker/fund manager behind the curtain?
2014-07-21 23:15
1. Surely some chart pattern will fail. Must know when it fails and when it succeeds.
2. Surely some chart pattern will evolve into other chart pattern, that is technical. For example, cup and handle might be evolving into head and shoulder.
To me all this chart patterns are worth studying.
2014-07-22 00:09
once upon a time there came a dude...such a writer he is as he began his story on the malaysian google aka ASIAep (aep) As he wrote, aep began soaring and it began soaring so the writings became more stunning and eventually writings became music to his listeners' ears. Well...history has it that AEP is long gone into the doldrums...and our dude is basking in the sun is some white sandy beach somewhere....no one knows the future..we are sure...no one blames that dude....but given msian biznessmen all out to making a killing? caveat emptor!
2014-07-22 08:37
the convincing and great writeups then did get people excited, more so when asiaep prices soared, to begin their chase to reach the elusive rainbow. therein lies the difference and set them apart, ghl is supported by strong growth in its revenue and profits....hard and well earned money. yes caveat emptor!!!
hahaha there is a fine distinction between being smart and a....omg.......
2014-07-22 08:49
Maybe the dude is so angry that once a time he had been chasing the wrong stock and licking his wounds till today, that makes him hate all the decent stocks that are performing, and jealous of people making some healthy money in the stock market. Haha. OMG....anyway, no gun is always pointed at anyone to chase...Another bad characteristic people appearing... haha
2014-07-22 09:46
Chris Sy, agree agree...
but why u poiting me to buy??? why why why? and u mention ALIBABA aggresive move.......
jz kidding. wish u make big gain from GHL System
2014-07-22 09:53
duit bro arrr, I say KWSP no space dy wor, I say if you want to buy, buy from AK wor, why? AK don't want to sell arr. Hihi.
I say GHL so many institutional investor dy , KWXP no space to come in dy wor....
2014-07-22 10:45
JT, please be patient, i have to say the value is ......, but i cannot reveal here due to some bad intention people keep bad mouthing this at the moment. Maybe you can find something is there , in the context of my writing. Thank you.
2014-07-22 10:45
when one writes be it good or bad....criticism or words of caution is part of an expression...who go so far to launch an otherwise unfounded personal presumptuous attack? The people behind GHL is not exactly the best of characters....but then again who are in the business n political world. Hilariously the hoos and haa only start when GHL is 5x from where it started...still caveat emptor is the best medicine for always. My sifu always tell me...a conman will never be able to scam a person who is not greedy.
2014-07-22 14:20
one who is filled with negative emotions due to some past bad experiences or self hatred will always have bad thoughts; that everyone is evil and out to cheat and deceive and the only angel left in this world is none other than him.
2014-07-22 15:46
i do not care who the F you are (those are your words) i do not have a single ghl share. it is only appropriate that responses are made to counter any uncalled for remarks.
2014-07-22 17:18
what is neutral? it simply means presenting facts... the entire scenario with both the pros and cons that is neutrality!! i rest my case.
2014-07-22 17:28
dear alex,
Ghlsys is not a circus, if you want to continue the role of a clown, so be it. The public will be the JUDGE. Or you can keep continue to be the clown.....and make a fool yourself .....
2014-07-22 18:13
Christine let's be honest, you wrote many many words up there, and I've read many times but I still don't get the juicy WHY GHL is a good investment besides some vague reasons like 1. Alibaba going to snap up small companies 2. The future is cashless. That sounds saying it is good to invest in Oldtown because everyone has to eat until he/she dies. At least provide something solid and concrete like GHL is going to do this, and high chance it will succeed, because some big MNC are their customers, right now in M'sia no one has this technology, Alibaba will prefer to acquire GHL technology because it complement Ali's existing technology, or like how Ebay acquire Paypal years ago etc, you know things like that. Or at least give a valuation if you can't be bothered to write so much.
2014-07-22 18:59
JT Yeo, the reason you don't understand is because you still don't understand what GHLSYS does. Even if Alibaba wants to acquire GHLSYS, I think they won't bother to sell. Rather they cooperate together for joint partnership.
Put it simply GHLSYS's core business now is TPA. Google it if you must. The more people uses credit cards or debit cards for payment, or over the internet, the more money GHLSYS makes, if and only if, under the merchants of GHLSYS. Now they are expanding to get more merchants with backing from banks.
Imagine right now, the penetration of credit card usage in Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines are still very low. GHLSYS has penetrated these markets and when the e-payment boom comes, GHLSYS will definitely benefit. BNM is already promoting the usage of e-payments in Malaysia. Next year cheques will be more expensive to bank in.
One thing is for sure. E-payment will only expand bigger where younger generations take over baby boomers. Analysts expect transactions from e-payments will exceed 10 times by 2020 in Msia alone.
If you want to ask further about competition etc, you may need to do the homework yourself rather than us spoonfeeding you.
Chris, hopefully I can lighten your job by giving my own inputs rather than you handling everything alone haha.
2014-07-22 19:09
wise eye you are a gem.
i hasten to add that her write up has been picked /selected by the administrator as one of the top articles posted at this forum.
chris, you ought to feel proud of that accomplishment.
2014-07-22 19:29
Mr.Yeo. Everyone has a set of skill to evaluate a company. I already told you that I cannot provide you the valuation based on my own calculation at this public forum. If according to conservative figures of 1.12 TP from the research house, you already know what is the total market cap that GHYSYS commands. Regarding about your comparison to food industries, yes, people need to put the food in their mouth till the day they die, but it does it mean Oldtown is the only choice available? But I also doesn't mean Oldtown is not a good company. It's all depends on their strategic planning and improve their service level to taper their direct competitors like Paparich or etc. So if you still unable to read my write up, and looks like you are showing the uneasiness in me not putting you in all the details you want, even the analyst report is attached, there are so many tech stocks can be considered. Why pushing me to the limit. I have my own reason not to disclose the fact that I know. Even if I tell you the facts, you maybe not agree too. You have to do your own homework to decide on how to invest and which one that you understand most.It ends here. Thank you.
2014-07-22 19:34
Yea alright, at least I get an idea. So the success is more or less correlated to the usage of online payments. And I though Malaysia's online penetration and ecommerce is like 70%? Higher than most ASEAN countries. So the consideration is definitely competition and substitution. Sounds like investing in Tesla to me.
2014-07-22 19:58
Dear Respected Mr JY Yeo,
I am duitKWSPkita a newbie from this forum.
May I know are you someone from Creador Private Equity firm? If YES, kindly please obey and respect the Code of Conduct and Ethic in Finance Analyst field. Hope you can understand what I am suggesting about.
cheers,
Happy analysis !
2014-07-22 20:04
I don't quite understand what you are up to. Well I wish I am from some Equity Firm because I am jobless now.
2014-07-22 20:12
Sorry sorry Mr JT Yeo. Very sorry to hear that. I feel like you are somebody higher discipline than Chirs Sy in the analyst field. I have no mean to offend you but to find opportunity to learn from you. I have learned very much from Chris Sy in other counters not only from GHL System.
possibly her write up does not give u the direction or immediate gain from your investment . But kindly please appreciate people's efforts. Many of us have been beneficial from the sharing. Please don't kill her and kill a beginner like me.
anyway, I hope to read more about GHL System write up from you. I am looking forward to reading more insights info at your blog.
wish you and Chris Sy succeed in all endeavors. Earn more and more.
happy trading!
2014-07-22 20:27
Mr JT Yeo, psk .... I feel sorry for you..... :(
I read ur comment I feel like urs thinking is so..... cheers up mr Yeo!!!
2014-07-22 20:46
Ms Chris Sy,
let's hope Mr JT Yeo get head hunted within a week time. He will soon join you in GHL battle field with great income from the job.
wish him the best luck!
2014-07-22 21:02
Yea that's alright, everyone has their circle of competence, that's why I don't touch Oil & Gas sector because I have no idea how they works. For GHL my knowledge is 50/50 because they involve some back-end IT thingy, which I am not that familiar, compare to say Ecommerce retails.
But I like how the online war is developing in Southeast Asia. The only online company I started monitoring now is REV (Catcha Media). Catcha Group CEO is Patrick Grove. Catcha Group also own iProperty, which is listed in Australia and iCar Asia that runs online car selling portal Carlist.my in Malaysia, and other portal in Thailand and Indonesia.
The interesting thing about this is the power of network effect. Example how Jobstreet match employers and employees, how Ebay matches buyers and sellers or how iProperty matches property buyers and sellers. In all these cases, it is a winner takes all scenario. The more buyers one have the more sellers there will be, vice versa, a world of increasing return, snowball. Most traditional markets operates in diminishing return, i.e. plantation, more palm oil production lead to higher cost and less return. Jobstreet has 70% market share in Malaysia. iProperty I am not sure but I can't think of anyone as monopoly as them now. That is why Seek would rather acquire Jobstreet than move into SE Asia on it's own, it is hard to win.
However in the online car sales market in Malaysia, Thailand & Indonesia, it is still fairly immature, no clear winner, although Carlist.my is already leading by total numbers of listed cars, more than Mudah.my and other car portal in M'sia like Carsifu or Autoworld. Carlist.my is not charging car dealers or sellers any fees to list their cars for now, they are after the market share and monopoly, because they know winner takes all, once all sellers have been 'lock in', plenty of time to decide the fee structure.
So the interesting part is over the next 1-2 years, can Carlist.my become iProperty in the online car market. The interesting thing is of course Patrick Grove has successfully turn iProperty into the 'must go' website for property. He just need to replicate that similar strategies in the car market.
Many investors in Australia kinda missed the opportunity to invest in Seek.com and iProperty now their share price are quite overvalued, so many are pilling into iCar's shares listed in Australia, hoping that it will pay off because ASEAN population is huge especially Indonesia, plenty of cars to be sold. For Malaysia investors, the proxy is REV Catcha Media
2014-07-22 21:25
AyamTua,
don't say about kiki. She kena denda RM5000 and 240 hours kerja social.
hope she appreciate the correction.
2014-07-22 21:25
kikiki... thanks for sharing this analysis Chriss... duit bro, i'm here to learn too and i think i will join GHL due to several reasons :)
2014-07-22 23:09
Mr. Yeo, actually a lot of foreign investors are beginning to acquire more and more companies in Malaysia. This is one of them. In fact is a good sign to Malaysia. Foreign investors are interested about the potential of further JV and acquisition is good to our local company to expand further.
http://www.marketing-interactive.com/proto-sees-a-bright-future-ahead/
thank you...happy investing :D
2014-07-22 23:16
A bit speculative I think. Good Job anyway. Always wish Investors and company Good returns.
2014-09-17 12:59
Dear, Ghlsys kakis, hope next week is our celebration day. If Cycas has decided to top up their holdings, I believe they are very positive and comfortable with the potential of their respective investment. Or they know something that we are all guessing about. Wish all the best next week.
2014-10-08 17:20
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