stockoperator

Do u see any coffee shop closed business becoz of floods?? Why privatised at the first price? No choice. Ask Hitachi n Seagate.

2011-10-18 20:40

stockoperator

Dear TEH, i start buying at yr recommended price today Rm160-65. TQ And i would follow yr advice to wait for Rm140-45. I guess yr next avg price is Rm120-25 right? Very nice. U see U must always have money to BUY. Always.

2011-10-18 21:32

stockoperator

if u want to buy stocks Be patients. There is always panics selling here and there. What is better opportunity to buy when there is panic sellings? I hope nobody sells me at Rm140-45.

2011-10-18 21:49

stockoperator

In market it is damned hard to earn 10 cents. But it is easy to earn 50 cents or a dollars.

2011-10-19 00:11

8stars

How fast can they be back to normal operation wld depends on whether they have a Disaster Recovery Plan (DRP)? Based on news, it seems the damage is substantial and that wld meant that all their equipment need to be replaced in order to be back to normal production. One can presumed that they shld have Material Damage Insurance cover BUT how long wld it takes to clean up the mess and bring in the new equipment? Cld take up to 3 to 6 months or even more if the equipment is specially made for their type of business and that also depends on availablity of standby equipment. During this period their alternatives is to do it at another place. Expenses continue to be paid eventhough production is stopped until the factory is fixed. There wld be additional expenses to be incurred in restoring/setting up again which wld eventually increase their cost of working. So that means loss of profit plus additional increase in cost of working. How much wld it be then, which wld affect their Profit if this is drag longer? At least the current quarter wld be affected or may be longer. However, all is not loss in the long-term, just some Profit. The situation cld be more optimistic IF they have also a LOSS OF PROFIT insurance besides their Material Damage Insurance. Then their consequential losses is covered ie Net Profit + Standing Charges(Expenses) + Additional Increased in Cost of Working. Hope this help.

2011-10-19 00:56

stockoperator

in takeover, we only talk NAV So it is no more profit and growth and prospect.

2011-10-19 07:35

ganasai

ganasai feels "ganasai" or gameover? No!! I willing to avg. Please panic sell more. Not long period i am in stock market. But face hard situation like sunway share drop from 2.8 to 1.67. Will i feel panic and sell when price below 2? No!! I bought. I ready for lose but make sure i still have bullet to balance it.

2011-10-19 08:07

ganasai

Thanks for your advice. Of course I have bullet as my FD also. Stock is only for those people got spare money. Never borrow or use daily money to buy share.

2011-10-19 08:59

ganasai

when crisis come, people feel panic, but I feel happy. when 1997 can return?

2011-10-19 09:15

ganasai

I never suggest people collect or throw. i still young in market. Whatever strategic is quite depend your own situation. Some people like to collect on crisis then sell on high, some people like to throw share simply because for safety, some people like to buy on high then sell on high, some people still dreaming follow on high...

2011-10-19 09:49

stockoperator

lets assume thai operation is no more.Simple. So no discussion on Thai anymore. NAV is still abv Rm2 after minus 4th Q loss plus insurance claim.

2011-10-19 09:53

ganasai

Caution, collect or throw is really depend on your own. If you really have long term ability to keep it, believe the company futures compare with other competitor, believe Dato is a good business man and wont simply abort (or some reason make him abort in no way), then why not buy in small small portion now? Sometimes u must treat your stock as your wife, if u believe your wife is good wife and treat u good in long term.

2011-10-19 10:14

carries

i agree with ganasai's analogy however, to be realistic, you have to remember that this takeover is going to have to be financed in some way .....

When a financial institution provides finance they need security and when the risk is heightened or when the value of the underlying security has diminished in some way, they will require a larger spread ......

Do the math and then make your own decision ......

2011-10-19 10:26

ganasai

ya correct, but from my viewpoint not only privatisation. I told early before. Are u afford if privatisation failed? Are u still believe Eng is still a good stock, good futures and undervalued even privatisation failed? If not, please throw now. no point for long term or short term. math is not everything. Stock up or down is depend on you believe or not.

2011-10-19 10:30

ganasai

my theory at this moment just suitable apply for long term. Play at your own risk. As i collect sunway share when price drop below 2 is because it is a good stock. If you believe company value, u wont scare any popup issue. Unless the company value change (then run first). People collect share because for money, i feel that i collect share because i appreciate their value. Buy Gold? i never buy the death thing. I really a ganasai person. that's why i called myself ganasai.

2011-10-19 11:12

ganasai

ya i really a small player and young. But i dont like follow high, what call overvalued stock. This is because i lack of deep technical analysis. I scare "buy high sell on high".

2011-10-19 11:16

ganasai

Another point, now whole market can consider still bear. whether should buy in now for long term especially for those buy in big portion, please justify yourself. But i still will collect every time the stock drop 10%. Not all my bullet lah of course, haha may be just 200 shares only, who know how much i bought? I will kept it secret.

2011-10-19 11:44

stockoperator

Never go for safe haven

2011-10-19 11:52

ganasai

Ok, good, please sell. I will waiting at this price.

2011-10-19 12:00

stockoperator

we will c what happens to those who park money at fd USD treasury
In mkt lets hv abit of conviction.Will u?

2011-10-19 12:14

ganasai

I never said i am a pro. I said "I will" does not means sure i will buy every time 10% drop. Because i will changes based on situation. I think this place is open for anybody to share out the comment no matter right or wrong? So dont treat me comment is right and follow.

2011-10-19 12:20

carries

I am an auntie who is admittedly also a small time investor without experience ....

That said, i agree with richard that it would be prudent to be cautious when playing this counter, especially now ....
(Note : i have not played this counter and never will but this discussion was interesting so i was following it)

I believe richard is an experienced investor and he is just sharing his knowledge with us, which is one of the reasons why alot of us read these blogs ..... we all want to learn .....

In hindsight we will all be able to see who was being brave and who was being foolhardy .... until that time .... it's anyone's guess ......

2011-10-19 13:03

stockoperator

In the recession hit industry it is best to destroy and rebuild.

2011-10-19 13:32

stockoperator

U must hv general/basic conditions right. To invest/to strategie it is all down to money management and conviction.

2011-10-19 13:37

ganasai

Thanks for your comment, Richard. Appreciate it.

2011-10-19 13:48

stockoperator

if everybody keeps thinking the fair value is Rm1.20 U wont buy but sell.

2011-10-19 14:40

stockoperator

my professional job is only buying. Eng is not my usual style. Too speculative and iam Not. Anyway price has been set on Rm1.6 then Rm1.4 and Rm1.2.

2011-10-19 15:06

stockoperator

taliking abt money mgmt. It is not so much of how much u can invest but how much u can stand to lose without quiver. Say a person has Rm100k but cant stand a Rm1k loss. So he can never invest successfully ya. Think of amount u can stand to lose first then strategies ya.

2011-10-19 16:07

carries

Dato Teh disposed of 700,000 shares?

2011-10-19 17:40

stockoperator

People r out there to get yr share ya. After privatised announcement he bought but prices drop. NOW he sells, u can guess what BIG boys is upto. U must wonder from day one price never goes up abv Rm2.3 u must wonder why. Is it episode planned from day one???

2011-10-19 19:03

stockoperator

As Richard says, this is the DARK ART.

2011-10-19 19:04

Tan Chin Kok

This is Dato Teh Eong Liang... Our Dato Teh here is Teh Yong Khoon :D Brothers may be...

2011-10-19 19:12

stockoperator

Anyway when director buy people buy. When director sells people sells also.

2011-10-19 19:51

stockoperator

That is why my first statement yesterday and impressions is systematics selldown.

2011-10-19 19:53

stockoperator

U could count the volumn abit I estimate they would want to accumulate abt lets say 20,000,000 shares. Then selldown should easae.

2011-10-19 19:55

stockoperator

if BIG boys still cant get yr shares They will do one last things. That is move up the price. With price moves up and with so much negative news U WILL SELL.

2011-10-19 20:08

stockoperator

There would be a complete private buy out of minority for price below RM2. How? Remember u sell to them ma.

2011-10-19 20:13

stockoperator

Even i warn u now. U would still sell to them at lets say Rm1.99. They wont let price abv RM2 so easy. So u cant wait.

2011-10-19 20:20

stockoperator

it is the joke of my life that the fund house downgrades a company becoz of natural disaster. U should never do that.Be professional. Period. We know recovery is the fastest once floods subside.

2011-10-20 00:20

Stephenlee

This is a named game. Professional or not is not important, Bottom line is to make money. Hope things work out well for the good.

2011-10-20 02:11

ganasai

ya, sell your share now (crocodile waiting u, sell as low as much u can), put in FD, buy blue chip and keep away.

2011-10-20 09:21

ganasai

yaloh, who want to kena eat again? Please continue sell more and more, may be I am another crocodile when u sell at price <1.2, haha!!!

2011-10-20 09:42

ganasai

Simple concept, everyone also can be crocodile, everyone also can be dimsum. If who one cannot stand due to own ability or scare to current situation, then he will become dimsum. Otherwise, he will become crocodile.

2011-10-20 09:46

ganasai

money really not simply fly from sky. Most of the people can only become dimsum. This is always truth. Even i am young in stock market, but i understood.

2011-10-20 09:47

ganasai

Richard, i understood what u said: "better sell off now because sure u will lose, keep away this stock and looking for other good counter". Thanks. But in this counter, i'm not tolerant. Sorry about that.

2011-10-20 09:59

ganasai

sorry misunderstanding a bit. haha dont worry, i wont boring since stuck in this stock (still got other counter to play). Hmm... but look like sideway now, when it can Start big jump up or big jump down? All people wait for news come out? Dont want become dimsum now?

2011-10-20 10:32

carries

Does the cash and cash equivalents make up part of the NTA or NAV?

If it does then doesn't that mean that where operations are suspended but fixed costs still need to be paid that these balances will be eroded fairly quickly?

Also when i looked at the financials for this company the the Interest Coverage Ratio was in the negative ....
How will this impact the company under the current enviroment?

2011-10-20 10:54

ganasai

Still technical analysis? Good. I think most of people just affected by emotional mood? Forgot NTA or NAV or RSI or MACD? Any pro can explain how good the Stock in term of this all the technical analysis in short and long term?

2011-10-20 11:00

carries

2009 Interest Coverage Ratio was -12.549 In 2010 it was -225.877

From Investopedia
"The ability to stay current with interest payment obligations is absolutely critical for a company as a going concern. While the non-payment of debt principal is a seriously negative condition, a company finding itself in financial/operational difficulties can stay alive for quite some time as long as it is able to service its interest expenses.

In a more positive sense, prudent borrowing makes sense for most companies, but the operative word here is "prudent." Interest expenses affect a company's profitability, so the cost-benefit analysis dictates that borrowing money to fund a company's assets has to have a positive effect. An ample interest coverage ratio would be an indicator of this circumstance, as well as indicating substantial additional debt capacity."

2011-10-20 13:41

carries

Please read the last 3 posts here and comment or advise

Those of us advising caution can find all sorts of reasons for our advice

Those wanting to buy/hold/accumulate can also find equally good reasons for their belief

That said, we are clearly divided and should agree that WE ALL DISAGREE

I don't think that anyone commenting here means anything personal by their remarks .... i do think however, that this discussion is getting abit too heated .....

2011-10-21 12:08