With a scheduled meeting of major oil producers delayed this week, the war for oil market share among those producers continues. At the same time, the global oil market is experiencing a massive demand shock, as transportation slows to a near standstill amid coronavirus mitigation measures. Charter fees for very large crude carrier (VLCC) have surged by 3 times and onshore oil tanker are now charging a higher premium for storage fee.
However, we think the oil market is not about the supply and demand of oil.
It’s about the supply and demand of the capital. There is a sharp reduction of the capital to the sector. Equity investors are now placing a higher premium to energy companies and debt investors are requesting a higher return from the bond issued by energy companies. Another time bomb that we will be seeing will be the downgrade of energy company’s bond to junk bond grade, which will shut the door off for them to raise funds from sovereign wealth funds and pension fund.
With all these ripple effects, we will likely see substantial consolidation and rationalization of the industries and only companies with the strongest balance sheet or the most efficient producers are able to survive this catastrophe. In our view, oil will experience another round of 10 years bull run, just like what we experienced in the starting of millennial after all things had settled down.
Image credits to Goldman Sach Global Investment Research
Get more insights from FB page or you can subscribe the newsletter here.
Created by DonkeyStock | Jun 05, 2024
Created by DonkeyStock | May 28, 2024
Higher offer price for MPHB Capital Bhd ?
Created by DonkeyStock | May 27, 2024
DC Healthcare Bhd has delivered a worsening financial result
Created by DonkeyStock | Jan 04, 2024
Property investing by these visionary Singapore-based companies
Created by DonkeyStock | Jan 03, 2024
Discover the factors behind this surge, the challenges faced by top cocoa producers, and the ripple effect on chocolate manufacturers
Created by DonkeyStock | Aug 15, 2023
Created by DonkeyStock | May 03, 2023
Companies listed on Bursa Malaysia with an outstanding quarter results for the month of Apr 2023.