Admins had better dust off their Windows migration skills if Dell and HP are right that a refresh wave of "aging" commercial PC estates is picking up pace - even though the process is slower to happen than either company seems to have expected.

Talking at the Citi 2024 Global TMT conference this month, Michael Dell, chairman and CEO at Dell Technologies, admitted the long-awaited cycle to swap out current fleets of computers "has been delayed for sure."

Without offering any reasons for postponement - and not being pressed for one by the analyst interviewing him - the billionaire reckoned the size of the refresh is "going to be even bigger" because of it.

"So first of all we have a certain date with Windows 10 end-of-life and we're almost within a one year window of that, and as you get in that one-year window, the enterprise IT people start screwing around and saying, 'Oh, we better do something about this'," said Dell.

Enrique Lores, CEO at rival PC maker HP, who spoke at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology conference this week, agreed enterprises are also about to invest in new lines.

"First of all there is a large and aging installed base on PCs. Many of these PCs were bought during COVID and now we are four [or] five years after they were bought and they will have to be replaced.

"We also see an opportunity driven by the Windows 11 refresh that is only starting now… this is what is behind some of the strength that we see on the commercial side. Microsoft… will start discontinuing their support for the previous versions, and this always ties the replacement and upgrade," he said, adding "this is going to be driving demand in the coming quarters."

The Reg has discussed the many reasons why companies have held off upgrading machines to Windows 11. Mary-Jo Foley at analyst Directions on Microsoft told us via email:

"I feel like we have been hearing the reasons for the slowish uptake for a while - incompatible hardware (older machines with non-supported CPUs, TPMs), no clear reason/features pushing upgrades.

"In businesses, some only recently moved to Win 10 and thus were not too keen on rushing to Win 11. I agree that the next year is make or break time. I'd expect we will see businesses either upgrade hardware / move to 11 or decide to try Windows 365/Azure Virtual Desktop."

The slowing economy has also deterred some businesses from making the move, according to Bryan Ma, VP of Devices Research at IDC.

He told The Register via email: "Macroeconomic uncertainty has made IT decision makers hesitate, but we nonetheless expect replacement demand to drive 6 percent growth in the commercial PC market next year, up from 1 percent this year.

"That will be particularly pronounced in markets like Japan, where IT departments have tended to wait to upgrade (and when they do so, upgrade via new hardware rather than in-place on existing hardware). But many other geographies and organizations have already been progressively upgrading."

According to Statcounter, Windows 11 was running on just 31.64 percent of PCs worldwide in August, compared to 64.14 percent that were running Windows 10.

The thing both Dell and Lores also agreed on at their respective conference appearances was that AI PCs will also be a factor that plumps up their revenues - though this is unlikely to happen in huge volumes this year, at least.

Michael Dell said if a new PC that lands on a user's desk which doesn't have an AI feature, they're "going to really wonder what happened."

"Everybody's going to want that. Every piece of software that you're going to use is going to have an AI assistant. You're already starting to see this. And most of those AI cycles are going to run locally on the PC.

"And this is just another piece of a long cycle that has been going on for a long time where you want your PC to do more than it did before. That's why you replace it… we're definitely confident that the refresh is coming.

"I have not met any customers who have said 'We're planning a refresh but we don't want an AI-enabled PC.' It's sort of a question of what is the cost. What does it come with? Where is the software - but the hardware always comes before the software. And so you see the whole industry gearing up..."

Forrester said earlier this year that use cases for AI PCs remain elusive, and without the killer app, Gartner agreed sales will not accelerate.

HP forecasts that half of all shipments will be AI PCs in three years and Lores expects a 5 to 10 percent increase in average sales prices that will uplift the entire PC category. "AI PCs bring three clear benefits over traditional PCs," he said. Lores said latency, the lower cost of running AI locally instead of in the cloud, and not needing to upload data to the cloud are all strong lures for CIOs.

Marketing bluster is a constant feature of emerging tech in the industry and Lores admitted, "Sometimes hype doesn't help. In this case it's not helping," he said, with reference to investors' expectations. Though it must be said that vendors - including HP - have talked up AI PCs for almost a year. Lores said an obvious limitation to adoption has been "availability of product."

A plethora of AI PCs did hit the market earlier this summer, however, and more are clearly on the way, with Qualcomm shipping the relevant chips in June and AMD in July.

Ma at IDC told us: "AI PCs are a bit hyped up right now in the absence of key use cases, but nonetheless it sweetens the upgrade/replacement decision making process for IT departments with the prospect of more value (and arguably, security and battery life) when they do replace their systems."

Foley was also skeptical about AI PCs being a bigger part of the mix this year. "I don't think Copilot+ PCs will convince any/many to upgrade, as Microsoft and PC makers don't have any must-have experiences with those devices that would entice people to go Windows 11. Maybe they will at some point. But not so far." ®

https://www.theregister.com//2024/09/13/win_11_refreshes_delayed_pc_makers/