Intelligent Investor's Notes

Cold Eye’s 5 yardsticks for investment

Cold Eye listed 5 important criteria on his talk on 16-March-2013.
  1. Return on Equity (ROE)
  2. Cash Flow from Operations (OCF) and Free Cash Flow (FCF)
  3. Price-Earning Ratio (P/E)
  4. Dividend Yield (DY)
  5. Net Tangible Asset (NTA) per share

 

Return on Equity (ROE)

  • Investor want to have a reasonable return from the capital for the equity put in.
  • The return rate depend on the business risk.
  • You would want to have a risk that higher than a risk free rate. Says, bank FD provide interest rate of 4%, you will target for a min return say 10%-15% (6% - 11% above FD rate) for the risk you take.
  • [Note]: There is some issues and pitfall on ROE, do perform DuPont analysis on the ROE, or alternately I prefer to use ROIC


Cash Flow

  • Business owner would expect debtors pay you promptly and you don;t have to stock up a lot of inventories which tied up your capital.
  • Else, you have to put in more capital each year even you make one.
  • Do expect the hard cash received must be about the earnings each year.
  • For each year, the business need capex to keep it going (so the owner can ear more in future) - e.g. buy more/relenish equipment, buy/open more shops.
  • It would be good if the capex can be met with the cash I receveid from operations and owner no need to come up with more money.
  • It will be fantastic if there is still leftover money to draw out (diviend), or the company can have extra money to invest in other lucrative business.
  • Check
    • Average OCF same as reported earnigns over the years?
    • Is FCF in genral positive over the years?
    • Is the average FCF >= 5% of Revenue?
  • [Note]: You may want to read more on Cash Flow Statement Analaysis.


Price-Earning Ratio (P/E)

  • A business might not be a right investment if price is nor right. If you buy a business with good ROE (say 30%)  on P/E of 33 will only give you a earnings yield of only 3%.
  • If the yield is less than FD, you may want to put the money to bank to earn risk free return.
  • The prowess in investing is not knowing how to buying great companies at any price, but good companies at a cheap price.
  • We should look for company < 10 or < 15 (good company with growth prospect)
  •  [Note]: P/E will ignore the debt an cash on the balance sheet. EV and EBIT is a good alternative if an investor want to take care on this item. 

 

Dividend Yield (DY)

  • How nice if my bussiness can have extra cash (FCF) after CAPEX investment and the left over money send back to owner as Dividend. (You may want to read more on Cash Flow Statement Analaysis.)
  • This way, the owner can have additional money to spend while the business is still growing and the dividend is likely ti increase in the future.
  • DY = Dividend per Share for a Year / Stock Price
  • It could be a good investment if DY > FD rate.


Net Tangible Asset (NTA) per share

  • Investor can recoup the initial investment if the NTA worth more than what he put in.
  • If the NTA per share > stock price, you may be in for a bargain.
  • More valuable (e.g. hard cash, property, land) asset is better.
  • Receiveables - debtors might not want to pay me.
  • Inventories - it may be outdated.
  • Some business (e.g. service industry) where the important assets is not tangible e.g. its technology, brand name, people......
  • [Note]: This is align with Benjamin Graham Net Net & Negative Enterprise Value.

More cold eye sharings can be found on below links:-

 

References:-
Discussions
6 people like this. Showing 19 of 19 comments

johnny cash

dear inteligent investor
can you please help and guide us..by using this screener, how should we retail investor go arround in searching for good uptrending stocks?? please help us, what values should we put in,,inorder to screen out some good stocks..please guide us..thanks

http://www.bursamarketplace.com/index.php?ch=ch_themarket&pg=pg_tm_screener

2014-06-13 13:57

Intelligent Investor

In my opinion, that screener not able to key in Cold Eye’s 5 yardsticks criteria.

2014-06-13 14:08

kcchongnz

I will start with the first one, Pelangi Publishing Group

Yardstick 1: ROE
PPG reported net profit of 6.6m last year. With its equity of 90m, ROE is about 7.4%. this is below 10%, not so good. But bear in mind that it has excess cash of 30 sen per share.

Yardstick 2: Cash flow and free cash flow
The average cash flow from operations (CFFO) for the last two years was 13.4m. This is 203% of its earnings of 6.6m. This shows its good quality of the earnings. After spending in capital expenses, there is a free cash flow (FCF) of 7.9m left. This FCF is high at 12% (>>5%) of its revenue.

Yardstick 3: PER
PPG is trading at 58.5 sen now. With EPS of 6.4 sen, the PE ratio is 9.2, or less than 10. Bear in mind again that there is an excess cash of 30 sen per share.

Yardstick 4: Dividend yield
PPG paid a dividend of 2 sen for the last financial year, or a dividend yield of 3.4%, about the same as the FD rate which is good.

Yardstick 5: NTA
The net asset backing per share of PPG is 90 sen compared to its price of 58.5. Price-to-book is at 0.65, much less than 1 which is cheap.

PPG seems to meet all the criteria of Cold Eye as an investment except for a lower ROE.

PPG 0.585 13/06/2014
Revenue 66421
1 ROE 7.4% <10% Good
Net profit 6591
Equity 89672
2 Cash flows
Av CFFO 13386 203% Good
FCF 7894 11.9% Good
3 PE ratio 9.2 <10 Good
Price 0.585
EPS 0.06383 0.1065
4 Dividend yield
Dividend , sen 0.02
Dividend yield 3.4% <3.5% ok
5 Price/NTA 0.65 <1 Good
NTA 0.90

2014-06-13 15:20

Intelligent Investor

Mr Chong, thanks for the input.

2014-06-13 15:59

pinpin1314

something like tambun ..:)

2014-06-13 16:51

regnig

TienWah poised to break bottom line

2014-06-13 17:51

emperor

Mr chong , intelligent investor, what do you think about stock LCTH (5092)?
Cause I found this stock have very good NNCW and graham no. Any comment or advice? Thanks in advance.

2014-06-13 21:24

coolio

Yardstick 1: ROE
KSL reported net profit of 181.5m last year. With its equity of 1,289m, ROE is about 14%. this is above 10%, so it is good.

Yardstick 2: Cash flow and free cash flow
The average cash flow from operations (CFFO) for the last two years was 176.4m. This is about the same of its earnings . After spending in capital expenses, there is a free cash flow (FCF) of 161.6m left. This FCF is high at 10% (>>5%) of its revenue.

Yardstick 3: PER
KSL is trading at 2.17 sen now. With EPS of 47 sen, the PE ratio is only 4.6, or less than 10

Yardstick 4: Dividend yield
KSL did not pay Dividend for the last 3 years, with increase of earning from the recent quarterly result, shareholder can hope for dividend this year?

Yardstick 5: NTA
The net asset backing per share of KSL is 3.30 compared to its price of 2.17. Price-to-book is at 0.66, much less than 1 which is cheap.

KSL seems to meet all the criteria of Cold Eye as an investment except for dividend which was not distributed to shareholders.

KSL 2.17 13/06/2014
Revenue 680004
1 ROE 14.08% >10% Good
Net profit 181530
Equity 1289306
2 Cash flows
Av CFFO 176440 97% Neutral
FCF 69803 10% Good
3 PE ratio 4.6 <10 Good
Price 2.17
EPS 0.47
4 Dividend yield
Dividend , sen 0.00
Dividend yield 0% <3.5%
5 Price/NTA 0.66 <1 Good
NTA 3.3

2014-06-13 23:06

lmenwe

KSL paying dividend? Please check their cash flow statement! They are operating with negative cash flow! How to pay dividedn? Please bear in mind net profit doesn't equivalent to cash received! You might record super high profit but you may fork out a lot of cash! Furthermore they need to replenish their land bank! Hence they are not generating free cash flow. As they do not generating free cash flow how are you going to expect them pay you high dividend?

2014-06-15 16:29

coolio

Did I say KLS paid dividend? please look again, and please look at their cash flow statement again!

2014-06-15 17:00

kcchongnz

coolio, well done.

You are right. KSL is in positive cash flow from operations every year. It spends a lot of money for buying and development of land. Hence its free cash flow over the last few years on average is slightly negative. That could explain why it did not pay dividend for 2-3 years already.

But I think buying and development of land is a good asset allocation for the management to do. After all KSL is a property development company. Do not pay dividend is not such a bad thing as long as the money spend on better thing like buying and development of land, and yield return higher than marginal cost of capital, paying down debt (you can see debt net debt decreasing last three years). It is better than many companies because of following institutional imperatives, borrow and pay dividend, and embark on acquisition outside its business.

2014-06-15 18:10

coolio

Thanks KC.
I think total return is more important rather than paying dividend. I prefer the money to be reinvested into business for growth and earn more return in future which is what they are doing now based on the latest quarterly result.

2014-06-15 19:49

coolio

Yardstick 1: ROE
MFCB reported net profit of 740.5m last year. With its equity of 679571, ROE is about 10.90%. this is above 10%, so it is good.

Yardstick 2: Cash flow and free cash flow
The cash flow from operations (CFFO) for the last year was 122.6m. This is higher than its earnings. After spending in capital expenses, there is a free cash flow (FCF) of 54.3m left. This FCF is good at 8.64% (>>5%) of its revenue.

Yardstick 3: PER
MFCB is trading at 2.32 sen now. With EPS of 33 sen, the PE ratio is only 7.03, or less than 10

Yardstick 4: Dividend yield
MFCB paid a dividend of 7.5 sen for the last financial year, or a dividend yield of 3.2%, about the same as the FD rate which is good.


Yardstick 5: NTA
The net asset backing per share of MFCB is 2.37 compared to its price of 2.32. Price-to-book is at 0.92, less than 1 which is cheap.

MFCB seems to meet all the criteria of Cold Eye as an investment grade stock

MFCB 2.32 19/06/2014
Revenue 628758
1 ROE 10.90% >10% Good
Net profit 107185
Equity 679571
2 Cash flows
CFFO 122604 114% Good
FCF 54323 8.64% Good
3 PE ratio 7.03 <10 Good
Price 2.32
EPS 0.33
4 Dividend yield
Dividend , sen 0.075
Dividend yield 3.2% >3.0%
5 Price/NTA 0.92 <1 Good
NTA 2.37

2014-06-19 23:40

kcchongnz

coolio,
Good on you. You have the spirit of Cold Eye, one of the most successful individual investors in Bursa.

Your yardsticks to me are similar to Emily below, even better with your considerations on cash flow as one of the criteria.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600054641.jsp

2014-06-20 19:13

coolio

Thanks KC, yes I hope one day i will be a successful investor as well.

2014-06-21 12:56

Intelligent Investor

Hi Coolio,

I believe you are. Do share more your study with us. It is good.

2014-06-21 13:40

stockoperator

Good article by II and good effort by Coolio. KC should be very proud.

As usual the amount of Understanding you have on the Business itself is the amount that you shall earn in the future.

2015-02-01 00:01

Bruce88

Good infor...

2015-02-01 10:35

vinext

to: KC & all
1 thing he neglected, gearing ratio
also, EV/ FCF is more accurate than roe,which is smoetimes misleading

2015-11-03 02:13

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