玉楼金阙

如何规划退休投资?‧陈金阙

Tan KW
Publish date: Wed, 25 Feb 2015, 04:23 PM

 

 2015-02-25 11:27 

上周说到一些股市投资者在退休之后成功规划,取得15至18%的回酬,引来一些质疑的眼光,其中不乏一些质问退休之后怎能将钱财放在风险高的股市,难道不怕把钱输光吗?

投资有道早退休

由于我只是把所见所闻忠实的写出来,这个问题虽然有其道理,却没有什么完美的答案。

有些人已七十高龄,仍是公司的总执行长;也有些人年方四十,却因投资有道而早已退休。

我们只想参考别人成功之处,来让自己少走一些冤枉路,如果只是学步邯郸,只怕到最后连如何投资也忘了,反而不妙。

但是,今年阅报,倒有件事让我非常担心。政客胡乱谈论经济,牛头不对马嘴,这乃常见之事;但是执行长讲话有如政客,以非为是,是很少见的。

今一马(1MDB)的总执行长口口声声在限期前还清欠债,可是许多报章又死咬不放,认为早已过了限期,只是银行大开方便之门,他却得了便宜还要卖乖。

这种涉及过亿令吉的重要事项,岂可如同政客般随口胡言,总执行长责任重大,应引以为诫。

钱不够用需提高退休金

上述这段是题外话,我们且回来看退休的投资规划。今年公积金局喜派6.75仙股息,为多年来最高。而去年公积金局修改会员第一户口最低存额,超过若干数目方可提出来作为信托基金或股票投资。我们且以其55岁限额:19万6800令吉,再向上调一点:20万令吉为标准。

如果是以投资在定期存款3.6%;以前盛行一时的国家储蓄债券5%;或者较公积金股息稍低的6%来比较,一名有20万令吉退休金的人士,可取得年回酬7200令吉、1万令吉或1万2000令吉。

瞄准高回酬

换句话说,不用到老本的话,每个月开销花费600至1000令吉。

我们不讨论钱够不够用,因为那牵涉大到个人的生活水准(官方数据说明,如果不够,您就有必要提高你的退休金,这就是私人退休基金(PRS)推出的原因)。

如果年回酬15至18%,那么20万令吉经过20年,可以成长到330至550万令吉。

不过,由于退休人士还是要用到钱,我们以每年消费6%的标准,算出其10年,15年和20年后的本金成长。

年回酬率起伏不定

这是简单化成功投资者的秘诀,在实行起来,当然是复杂很多。

须要补充一点的是,回酬率只能以平均数字来诠释,因为现实中,每年的回酬率是起伏不定的。

看好高周息率

这些实战专家,大多数先寻找能给予每年赚钱兼有高周息率的股票,然后安心等待股市大跌的机会。在股市越被看淡,越多人抛售时,他们出手买入超卖的股票,然后在几年之内赚到几倍的回酬,从中提高了年回酬率。

由于人已退休,抱着不求有功,但求无过的心态,要达到约6%的年回酬率,倒也不太难;之后瞄准机会,在人弃我取的时候,以逆向投资法累积优质股,一步一步迈向15%以上的大成之道。

若干年后,当本金已增值到50万或100万令吉时,当可以享有更松动的固定开销来奖励自己。

陈金阙 专业财务规划师

http://www.nanyang.com/node/683365?tid=743

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 5 of 5 comments

ks55

Under no circumstance one should use OPM to buy share. Invest with your excess/idling money. If you can achieve 26% consistently for 10 years, your portfolio will go up 10 folds; for 20 years, you will achieve 100 folds. Don't be greedy, try out with 100k, in 20 years time you will have 10m.

SO IF YOU ARE 40 NOW AND HAVING 100K, YOU ARE A MILLIONAIRE AT 60 WITH 12.5% RETURN, AND A MULTIMILLIONAIRE IF RETURN IS 26% PER ANNUM CONSISTENTLY.

This is the power of compounding rate. Remember Warren Buffet's first rule : Don't lose. Make less is ok.

2015-02-25 17:23

Wong Heam Kiew

Consistently 15%~18% for 20 years? I think it is very not likely. KLCI's historical return (including dividend) is less than 10%. ICAP's historical return as of today is less than 13%.

2015-02-25 19:58

Wong Heam Kiew

ASB's historical return is less than 11%.

2015-02-25 20:00

Alphabeta

Before we get carry away in counting the chicks before the eggs hatched. Take a hard look at your portfolio – equity and cash holdings, what sort of return are you getting every year. Stop dreaming of the 26% CAGR, give yourself a pat on the back if your annual return fall within the range of 6% to 15%. Make sure your holdings comprised on businesses which are fundamentally sound.

Too much complacency also breeds excessive risk aversion when conditions change. If all you've become accustomed to is the market going up, well when the market falls, many are going to panic hard and panic fast. And you’re likely to sell. Most studies found you’re likely going to sell close to the bottom. Buying low and selling high rarely happens; many people tend to buy high and sell low instead.

Deep down, you know that you should buy and hold and just ride out the volatility wave but emotions and panic will likely override your better judgment. Studies have proven time and time again that bad psychology is one of the worst enemies of successful investing.

Do some what-if exercises. What if your biggest holding drops 10% or more? What if the market drops 20% or 50%? What if your friends or analysts started yelling “sell! sell! and sell!”?

While you are still cool and collected. Write out some plans, how long is your horizon, remind yourself how you can navigate the financial crisis, will buy and hold on diversified assets is a proven method. You really need to put down some logical numbers and rational conditions for what will make you sell a holding.

Not trying to be pessimistic here, sometimes it is better to be prepared for the next down-cycle if you want your nest egg intact.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25?page=1

2015-02-26 15:20

Kevin Wong

Well, the KLCi was around the 1,050 level 20 years ago. So including dividends...shouldn't the returns be around...

2015-02-27 10:53

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