Malaysia's CPO inventory level for Mar-12 was reported at1.96m mt or 2% lower than the consensus estimate of 2.00m mt. It was also 6%below our estimate of 2.08m mt. The key surprise was the better-than-expectedexports growth of 11% MoM to 1.34m mt (5% above the consensus and ourexpectation of 1.28m mt). Judging from the CPO production severe YoY decline of14% to 1.21m mt in Mar-12, we believe that oil palm trees may have just enteredtheir tree stress period. Typically, CPO production will be flat or declineduring its tree stress period. Among the key CPO consumers, the highest exportgrowth was noticed in Pakistan (+125% MoM to 78k mt), Europe (+63% MoM to 174kmt) and India (+11% MoM to 120k mt). The latest USDA WASDE report was bullishto CPO prices as it reaffirmed the global soybean oil shortage for the 2011/12season. The global soybean oil inventory was cut by 0.17m mt or 6.2% from itsprevious forecast to only 2.56m mt. All the bullish fundamental  factors mentioned continue to support ourOVERWEIGHT call on the plantation sector. We maintain our CY12 average CPO priceof RM3,200 per mt but may increase it further if soybean oil production continuesto deteriorate in South America.  We  have OUTPERFORM  calls  on SIME (TP: RM11.60) and IJM Plantation (TP: RM4.25) on valuation grounds.To leverage on  their  double digit  FFB  growth, we  also  have OUTPERFORM  calls  on Ta  Ann (RM7.75) and UnitedMalacca (TP: RM8.00). Meanwhile, we maintain MARKET PERFORM calls on KLK (TP:RM23.60), IOI (TP: RM5.60) and GENP (TP: RM9.90).

Mar-12 stocks levelbelow expectation.  The  CPO inventory level of 1.96m mt was 2% lowerthan the consensus estimate of 2.00m mt. It is also 6% below our estimate of 2.08m mt. The key surprise was thebetter-than-expected exports growth of 11% MoM to 1.34m mt (5% above theconsensus and our expectation of 1.28m mt). As the exports growth of 11% MoMsurpassed the production increase of 2% MoM, the stocks-to-usage ratio declined to 11.3% in Mar-12 (from 13.5%in Feb-12). On the overall, the meaningful drop in the stocks level to below2.00 mt is positive for CPO prices.

Tree stress effecthas just started. CPO production slumped 14% YoY to 1.21m mt in Mar-12.  The decline  was  more severe  than  market expectations  of  a 7%  to  9% drop  and  our expectation of a 2% drop. As highlightedearlier  in our sector update report on27 Mar, we believe that the tree stress effect on oil palm trees has started.Hence, the CPO production upcycle, which has lasted for 12 months (from Mar-11to Feb-12) should have ended. In Apr-12, CPO production is likely to register aYoY production decline of about 4% to about 1.47m mt. However, our estimate mayappear too optimistic at the current juncture as the severity of tree stresseffect is still unclear. CPO prices are nonetheless likely to appreciatefurther as CPO production will be limited as tree stress effects usually lastfor 2 years.

Strong CPO exports inMar-12 likely to continue. Exports surged by 11% MoM or 132k mt in Mar-12to 1.34m mt. Among the key CPO consumers, the highest growth was seen in Pakistan(+125% MoM to 78k mt), Europe (+63% MoM to 174k mt) and India (+11% MoM to 120kmt). The strengthening CPO exports to Pakistan were probably caused by a normalisationprocess as the Feb-12 number was extremely low (due to transporters' strike in thecountry causing closure of the factories). The strong CPO export trend islikely to continue in  April,  judging from  the  cargo surveyor's  estimate  of an  8%  CPO export  growth  to 479k  mt in the first 10 days ofApril. The resilient CPO demand should support CPO prices in 2Q12.

USDA WASDE reportbullish for CPO prices.  In thelatest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report released on 10 Apr,USDA has reduced its 2011/12 season global soybean oil inventory by 0.17m mt or6.2% from its previous forecast to only 2.56m mt. As a result, the 2011/12season global soybean oil stock-to-usage ratio declined by 41pp to 6.08% fromlast month's estimate of 6.49%. Soybean oil production from South America has meanwhilebeen severely affected by bad weathers. Argentina soybean oil productionforecast has been reduced by 0.13m mt or 1.7% to 7.30m mt while Brazil soybeanoil production has been  cut  by 0.11m  mt  or 1.6%  to  6.81m mt.  CPO  prices will  benefit  from this  as  it is  usually used as a substitutefor soybean oil.  


Source: Kenanga