Bursa Hunter-net-Hunter
Padini为什么是烂股，一个大鱼吃小鱼的故事
什么是潮流
现在的潮流是拖鞋要穿Birkenstock，T恤要穿Superdry，外衣要穿H&M毛衣。
你不要问我为什么300块一双的人字拖都有人要穿，“极度干燥”这么白痴的名字都有那么多人喜欢。这，就是潮流。
QE的威力
在近几年来，为什么有那么多外国牌子大举进攻我国？
现在的日本、欧洲QE，货币变得有竞争力（就是贬值），使得当地的企业进军海外更加的有利可图。
这就是宏观经济对各行各业所造成的影响，威力之大不是你所能忽略的。
品牌全球化创造经济效益
再加上全球化的时代，那些粗工可以交给劳资低廉的国家制造，成本大大降低。
然后品牌全球统一化，你在世界各地看到Uniqlo品牌，店面，衣服都是一样的。
这样就可以大量生产，提高经济效益，同样的广告，哪里都可以通用。
品牌，唯有够国际化，才能吃香。
两极化的看法
一谈到Padini，股票圈子的人就会有两极化的反应，either是讲到它很好，不然就是讲到它很坏。我是后者。
从季报便可以看出倪端
看店面人流是多余的，看财报最靠谱。
由于衣服销量是跟节庆跑的，按年相比较为恰当。
最新截止去年12月的季报，营业额仅微升5%，每股净利却大大下跌了43%。
根据管理层的解释，公司要赶在GST前清仓，不然旧的存货必须缴服务税。
所以该公司搞清仓大促销，毛利率因此下跌6%，但是Padini仍未能以量取胜，净利下挫43%。
这意味着什么？
尽管Padini的衣服买二送一，消费者都不是很on的意思。
Padini令人觉得很cheap
Mid Valley谷中城是全马最大型的商场，这里找不到你要的品牌，别的地方你也不用找了。
但是Padini这个品牌，你不用问人，你不用看Directory，因为你闭着眼睛都会碰到一间。
你去Jusco，你看到Padini；你去Metrojaya，你看到Padini；你去Isetan，你看到Padini；你去Robinson，你看到Padini。
品牌就像女人，太available就会看起来很Cheap。
Padini的估值合理吗？
Padini值12倍的本益比吗？
让我们理解一下12倍的本益比是一个怎样的概念？
8倍本益比及以下：业务不稳定，负债高，时赚是亏。
12倍本益比左右：有至少平均5年的盈利记录，生意一定要够稳定，增长可以缓慢，但是不能下跌。
15倍本益比以上：有经济护城河，抗跌。
服装零售是一门轻资产的行业，公司不是靠机器厂房赚钱，而是靠脑力、品牌、设计和创意等无形资产。
服装的潮流不断在变，而且不是必需品，入行门槛低，也就是说今年你赚钱，不代表你年年也赚钱。
我用Screener找到本益比同样是12倍的Bjtoto。
同样是12倍本益比，同样是轻资产，你会选Padini还是多多博彩？（难怪陈老板一直进货）
石油收入减半引起骨牌效应
况且马来西亚现在的经济确实出了问题，消费税只是小咖，重点是我国的石油收入占政府营收的三分之一，去年原油的价位是在100美元以上，现在是50美元的价位徘徊，而现在已经是五月，也就是说2015上半年，我们的石油收入是少了一半。
而我们的经济是有骨牌效应的，石油跌，棕油也跟着跌，政府收入少了，就要砍基建预算，然后跟着就是房产，跟着就是金融，消费。只有制造业的出口有免死金牌。
收股息是买股票最烂的一个理由
可能有人会讲：“但是Padini每年都派息窝，我是买来收息的，就算股价跌，我不是把它当定存咯。”
I cannot stress this anymore，收股息是买股票最烂的一个理由！
如果你是打工仔，公司亏钱，公司还会出粮给你，因为公司用的是股东的钱或者是跟银行借回来的钱。
你买股票，你就是公司的股东，公司要把钱先付给员工、业主、原料商、债主，最后有剩的才会给你。公司没有钱，怎样派息给你？
最好的例子就是Zhulian了，你有没有发现Zhulian派的息越来越少了?
不进则退
每年，我们都会听到马大的大学排名又退步了，被挤出大学排名200名以外。马大校长的解释是“不是我们退步，而是人家进步。”
我信，确实是人家进步了。
我认为Padini是间有实力的公司，能够做到酱大的规模确实不简单。我现在他们现在也是很努力的创造股东价值。
Padini比马大好很多，Padini还是在进步，可惜的是人家比你进步很多倍。
面对外国牌子大举进攻，加上国内经济不景的双重夹击之下，我给予Padini的合理本益比是8倍，8倍以上算贵，10倍以上算是拿不到回酬的烂股了。
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 47 of 47 comments
If I am not mistaken, according to Magic Formula (Thanks for kcchongnz posting, or else I wouldn't know this formula), PE 8 is a reasonable PE for a company that grow at 0% annually.
2015-05-06 21:41
8倍本益比及以下：业务不稳定，负债高，时赚是亏???????
I don't understand!
or you PE is not normally used PE.
PE below 8 is definitely good for a net cash company like padini
at the current price of 1.38, the pe is 12 and DY =7.25%
if PE = 8 , then the price is just around 80sen , DY is then 12.5, with the
cash holding of about 2M , I do not see padini has any problem to pay 10sen dividend as promised.
please sell to me now at 80 sen, I am most willing to buy. 1 M shares I still can afford, if you got 10M , I can easily gather a few friends to buy from you. my contact number is 0123435681
2015-05-06 22:26
CFTrader,
please do not quote Kccchong , I know he does not like to use PE to evaluate a company.
in which article he had said " PE 8 is a reasonable PE for a company that grow at 0% annually" ?
2015-05-06 22:32
apini: very great analytical comment. It had shown that you really understand Padini in depth. I like it.
2015-05-06 22:39
I don't have padini shares, but 80sen or below with the dividend of 2.5 sen every quarter is definitely a good good buy
2015-05-06 22:39
lol, I thank Kcchongnz to introduce Magic Formula in the forum. Or else I won't know it.
I don't say that kcchongnz use PE to value a share.
2015-05-06 22:44
Oh sorry, it's not Magic Formula. It's Absolute PE Ratio Valuation.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/46422.jsp
Gotta read here.
I won't spit out something that doesn't exist... hihi.
2015-05-06 22:48
The most important is the notion you form about its business. PE is an indicator (not exclusive) of the worthiness of money swapped with the piece of business sold to you. In the future if the business is good then its dividend is gonna to be good also. Afterall valuation is an art than science: intrinsic value vs market price should be the most important aspect considered.
2015-05-06 22:49
The investment is most intelligent when it is most business like. Ben Graham
2015-05-06 22:50
I won't talk much about FA or TA in this forum.
There are a lot of pro sifu here. 在下不敢班门弄斧。
But I had to reject your term "The investment is most intelligent when it is most business like. Ben Graham"
To me, nothing beats money/portfolio management - one of the "cold" subject in investing
2015-05-06 22:55
These two gentlemen have formed their notion about Padini. What about you? Have you look into the cash flow of this company? what is its gross profit margin, net profit margin, ROE, Current ratio, financial stability, owner earning, microeconomics, DCF value, reverse DCF value, integrity of management?
2015-05-06 22:55
Well you don't reject my term "The investment is most intelligent when it is most business like" they are Benjamin Graham's. Chills
2015-05-06 22:57
Will be willing to hear and learn if you share how to money/portfolio management - one of the "cold" subject in investing.
2015-05-06 22:59
Problem is , I myself aren't excel in that subject too... I'm still learning and probing the subject by trial and error method.
I would appreciate someone whom excel in this "portfolio management" to share some tips with the public.
______________________________________________________________
The reason I say money management is important because some investor enlightens me.
You could score a 150% gain in one counter (5% allocation) but your total portfolio might be in losing position because of the losing-performance of your largest holding.
2015-05-06 23:04
yes, Money management is the No.1 most important element in trading.
there are books teaching on this subject on how one can manage their exposure tru beta reading and proportion of funds invested. pretty complicated. but one can form their own simple rules to protect the unexpected.
2015-05-06 23:07
To find a good soldier is one thing , to control and allocate the position of the soldier is another thing.
Cheers =P
2015-05-06 23:09
The difference between a successful trader and a losing trader has a lot less to do with the successful trader’s ability to pick winners than you might think. All traders are going to experience losers and lots of them. It’s a fact of the business.
A winner, however, embraces the understanding that a large element of any one trade is randomness — in effect, any given trade is, on some level, a gamble. Losing trades are inevitable, and the winner takes that inevitability into account. Many longtime successful managers have done it with a winning percentage just above 50% and even the best traders are right only about 60% of the time.
It isn’t necessary to achieve that success rate to profit in the long-term, though. It isn’t even necessary to be 50% right (see "Win some, lose some," below). The depicted scenario assumes a 40% win rate — in other words, eight winning trades out of 20. The key to making a 40% win rate profitable is to structure your trades so that your winners profit at least twice as much as your losers lose — and that your initial stake can withstand the inevitable string of losses.
2015-05-06 23:10
Yes ! Optimusprime, you are good.
These is the "cold" material I'm talking about.
Could you share more about position thingy ?
I'm eager to learn more.
2015-05-06 23:14
Posted by CFTrader > May 6, 2015 11:14 PM | Report Abuse
Yes ! Optimusprime, you are good.
These is the "cold" material I'm talking about.
Could you share more about position thingy ?
I'm eager to learn more.
CFtrader.
u saw the slide i just posted?
i deleted, bcos the less ppls know the better for us.
2015-05-06 23:15
oh ... money/portfolio management ......
very simple one. why make it difficult?
why use some technical terms the you yourself also don't know?
if you really interested ,
ask my good friend tkp1
he is the expert
he used this method to turn around from losing money to gaining big.
2015-05-06 23:16
optimusprime,
why 3 years? one year can not ke?
3 years ..... want to play safe?
what can not happen in 3 years?
people call you sifu you know, they are waiting for you to tell them what to do know, not 3 years later
why not you tell them
2016 padini hit 2.80
2017 padini start to drop from the height of 5.00, limit down all the
way
2018 enter PN17+1 ( a newly created PN)
2015-05-06 23:27
hahaha......
I see, I see.....
how come you don't know 3 years later , you don't want but the bangali like very much.
hahaha.....
Posted by optimusprime > May 6, 2015 11:32 PM | Report Abuse
3 yrs for a reason.
padini is now like a 50yr old woman. many young chics is now fighting with her. and they have 36d 24 36
now padini is 38ff 34 46 (too bloated and sagging)
next 3 yrs padini go into manopause. no man wants it anymore.
2015-05-06 23:38
bonia is more superior than padini and in different sub sector of fashion. it has no direct competitor.
2015-05-06 23:47
bonia superior??...even pasar malam ah sum also carry coach or fake LV la hahaha
2015-05-06 23:49
no. bonia= leather story, padini= middle class clothing.
bonia has no direct competition in its class.
2015-05-06 23:58
sembonia own by bonia la.
braun buffel no money to do advertisement in msia also. very few outlet.
no critical mass in this part of the world. uncle auntie cannot pronounce braun buffel la.
2015-05-07 00:04
If not mistaken, Bonia owned the distribution right of Braun Buffel for few Asia country.
2015-05-07 01:17
read that many years ago. but no sure if they still hold the license to sell braun buffel? anyway braun product is not popular in malaysia.
2015-05-07 02:23
many yrs ago esprit was a hot cakes, a must have by all fund mgr globally. due to trend change and their inflexible response, it bcame a brand nobody want to associate, as they cheapen the product thru heavy discount in tier 2 shopping area. (sell to the poor) its reputation is further tarnish and began the downfall of its share price. it drop nearly 90% of its value from peak.
padini is walking the same path as esprit, just more pariah.
2015-05-07 02:28
a good company pays good dividend and continues to grow; a bad company does not pay dividend and cannot grow
2015-09-03 23:17
"收股息是买股票最烂的一个理由!!"
这是在股市多年來所听到最莫名其妙的的一句话。前人成立股票市场的主因是集资，发展生意，分享盈利(股息为其一)。曾几何时，新生代竟然把最初的理由当着是最烂的理由。唉!难怪我在Padini 会亏钱，大概是我一直以来都是以最烂的理由來买股票。该输。
2015-09-04 06:55
Hi Mr bsngpg, long time didn't hear from you, I also chose to invest in stock which gives reasonable DY. Mr Market will decide on the price of the stock, irrespective of fundamental, eventually, I think, an equilibrium will strike. Hope so. Hope to get in contact with you.
2015-09-04 07:15
Mr nokenzo: very nice to hear from you too. You are one of the people with good manner in public forum. Please keep up. We need to contribute our best to create atmosphere of positive energy. Thks
2015-09-04 07:55
Padini and Parkson are 2 counters I never touch, simply because every time I pass by their outlet, can hardly see any customer . Just wonder how they survived ?
2015-09-04 09:24
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ahahahaha, one support padini, one anti-padini .
It will be fun looking at the comment section.
*grabs popcorn.
2015-05-06 21:39