Bursa Hunter-net-Hunter
房地产的纸牌屋
Kesas，全马其中一条最繁忙的高速大道，由巴生港口直通到云顶。
到了Awan Besar收费站，也就是Bukit Jalil，Old Klang那一带，你会看到很多刚起好的公寓，都是中高端的，很美一下。（以上图片是谷歌街景，取景于一年前。）
由于我经常有经过那个toll，每次我都会很好奇的望着那些公寓s。
早上经过，我看不到阳台有人晒衣服；晚上经过，没有多少间的灯是亮着的，停车场更是寥寥几辆车而已。
这些楼盘都已交钥匙入伙半年有多了，然而四周还有很多楼盘还在起着。
报纸不是整天讲房产供不应求的吗，为什么有那么多的空房子？
马来西亚的房子都是先售后建的，所以是先有需求而后有供应。
这些空置单位都是有屋主的，没有人住，就代表这些屋子是拿来投资的。
这里是吉隆坡的缩影，而吉隆坡是整个马来西亚的缩影。
投资和“炒“只是一线之差
投资房产只有两种赚钱方式，一是收租，二是增值。
或者是一边收租一边等房产增值。
房子空着就代表几种可能性。
一，租不出
二，卖不出
三，租不出，也卖不出
四，不租，等增值
这些屋子每个月都是要还供期的，所以第四个可能性很低。
怎样知道房产已经被高估了？
其实房产也可以用本益比来看是否被高估了
假如你的单位要价500k，而月租是2k，年租就是24k，
这500k就是你的price，24k就是你的earning
所以你的房产投资的PE是21倍，用冷眼的说法，就是你要用21年的时间来回本。
PE调转来看就是Earning yield，屈指一算才5%罢了。
酱高的本益比必须要用高盈利成长来justified，那么earning也就是租金会起吗？
现在的情况是新的楼盘都还没有住满人，而后面还有很多楼盘排队竣工。
经济学最基本的概念，供给多于需求，租金有能力起吗？
要知道房市是否被高估只需看租金和房价是否脱节。
既然租金不能增长来justify房价，那么房价就要倒过来下跌来justify租金。
让我告诉你一个媒体不敢告诉你的秘密，嘘…
记者的任务不是要把真相告诉读者吗，为什么我们每天驾车经过那么多的空城都完全没有记者报导？
有，不过只有非营利机构肯报导--Journeyman picture
每天我们一翻开报纸，隔几页就是一则整页的产业广告，你可以看到该Semi-D四处鸟语花香，有比基尼女郎在泳池游泳，然后车房停放的都是宝马奥迪。
这些广告放在全国版，每天至少都要五位数的广告费。现在的地产商就是报社的米饭班主。
最敢讲真话的锋芒报就算敢得罪1mdb、JhoLow，都不敢得罪地产商。
发展商希望看到他们的产业广告隔壁的新闻报导写着《建竣公寓八成单位未入伙，恐现房产泡沫》吗？
偶尔，报社也会找一些专家来谈谈房地产的状况，好让你“掌握”，“理解”现在的房市。
他们找的是什么样的专家？
地产公司的老板，房地产专家，都是靠房地产找吃的人。
当然这也解释了为什么2008年次贷危机，公众完全被蒙在鼓励，因为少了主流媒体的真相报导，多了很多的“专家”误导。
政府更加不希望房产跌价，因为地都是政府的，对于政府，地的成本就是零。
什么都不用做，单单是卖地，就有税收了。这就是为什么国阵千方百计都要重夺雪州。
然后政府又可以假假起可负担房屋，你看我有为人民做事呢。
其实政府从头到尾就只是把地从政府转移给私人，根本就不用出一条毛。
巴菲特曾说过：“Don’t ask a barber if u need a haircut”
So what’s the lesson？
Don’t ask a 地产佬if u need a property
如今我就要替天行道，做大马房地产的末日博士，告诉你这个真相，好让你醒一醒。
我们的思想已经被主流媒体洗脑，而媒体又受控于广告商，整个产业链环环相扣，所以也难怪我们会产生羊群效应。
这是一个没有人想要推到的纸牌屋，然而它又是那么的脆弱…
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Discussions
10 people like this. Showing 13 of 13 comments
Good. But all consumers are price takers. They are not price makers. Even currency crisis Government set up Danaharta to prevent price of properties from dropping. So dont expect a fire sale.
2015-05-14 13:41
Good article. I stay at Batu Caves, there was 2 condo handover key early this year : 1)Amara Residence & 2) Urban 360. Both developer unit still available for sale. I just wonder when will be property bubble?
2015-05-14 14:29
confirmed bubble but questions are, when will it burst and how serious when it burst?
2015-05-14 15:29
Agreed, especially for high rise apartment selling at premium price (ie above RM700 psf) but not at prime location...
2015-05-14 15:39
Penang property price is more expensive than Klang valley but their salaries (in general) are amongst the lowest in Malaysia....
2015-05-14 15:43
Good sharing, in fact there are many speculators around to make quick profit.
2015-05-14 16:48
巴菲特曾说过：“Don’t ask a barber if u need a haircut”
haha..the implication is you just have to judge it yourself whether you need a hair cut or not BEFORE going to ask further detail to the expert.
2015-05-14 17:04
Huh, Penang ‘lang’ salary is among the lowest in Malaysia in general??? Not really agree to this statement. Look at Taiwan, Japan and China, I think their property price also as high as sky, maybe need few generation to pay off the loan. As long as the people who buy the apartment has cash, then the price may not go down a lot. Too many foreigner buying property in Malaysia now. For them, everything is cheap in Malaysia. Somehow, I also wish the property price to come down.
2015-05-15 22:17
sometimes if u need to be alone, u shall go to this kind of phantom condos.
Mr. Jian, fyi, foreigners own not more than 5% of Malaysia's property, in Johor, their price floor is at 1 mil ringgit.
2015-05-15 23:14
I also reckon properties prices will correct, this has happened to commodities, stocks and bonds, but not significant on Malaysia properties yet. However my concern is the correction on properties prices will causes jitter to many industries in Malaysia.
2015-05-16 11:26
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Good comment, totally agreed
2015-05-14 13:25