Hi, every i3 kaki, this is my first English post (actually i hv written it long time ago), put up this talk i attented one yr ago for ur reference.

Based of my two yrs stock investing experience, buying stocks what u nid is all about past information, yes, looking at past occurred event, company track records are more than enough to help u win big money.

Yes, u dun nid edging information, insider tips, in another word, what u nid is OLDS， not NEWS!

Old newspaper, surat khabar lama.........

One and a half yr now, actually u can see how good are the speakers views and judgement. What I can say is theEdge is a legit financial newspaper, they nvr blow water

Local Economy

Foreign fund are outflowing from the stock market, local big chunks like EPF, PNB are absorbing the selling pressure, that’s why KLCI still remain at 1,800.

Foreign fund owns 50% of MGS and 20% of stocks equity. If US economy is recovering and QE is slowing down, foreign fund will outflow heavily. This might give a great impact to KLCI because local big chunks can no longer absorb the selling pressure.

There is big possibility for government to raise interest rate to curb high inflation and weak Ringgit if foreign fund outflow are getting heavy. This chain of reaction will greatly slow down the property market growth because the cost of borrowing is higher plus the RPGT as stated in budget 2014.

Please notice that Malaysia household debt to GDP is more than 80%, basically this mean that 80% of our salary goes to house and car installment, the remaining 20% goes to food, shopping, yumcha. I don’t there is much left for saving. This is a very dangerous level.

Currently, KLCI is considered highly valued compare to the region market. So,KLCI is driven by price rather than earnings.  

The back bone of Malaysia economy crude oil and palm oil also not looking good

With the new technology on oil drilling, the supply of crude oily will be greatly increased and thus lower down the price.

Where crude oil price is low, there is no commercial value to produce biodiesel and thus lower down the demand for palm oil.

Meanwhile, the substitution commodity of palm oil like soy bean will be greatly supply in 2014, and thus drive the demand for palm oil further down.

This will give a one-two punch to palm oil.

Some more the recent continuous dry weather in peninsular will make oil palm less production. As you know, oil palm need to drink lots of water to grow juicy fruit.

Global economy

US is on recovery, QE stimulus works, employment rate is climbing up, which is good sign to lead up Malaysia’s export.

US would not step in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, because they don’t want to spoil the recovery effort.

Minor-indicator: Bacon sales in US is increasing for the last 4 years.

Malaysia so far is supported by domestic growth, we need US to lead us in order to grow further.

Due to shrinking current account surplus, Malaysia is in rating agents like Moody, S&P watchlist, might face downgrading risk.

CPI remains high in the coming months. The price hike in goods and services is due to cost pull inflation, we are having a negative real interest rate. People will investment in anything in order to seek higher return.

Tapering effect is not strong in Malaysia, we have gov fund act as cushion.

PE of equity market is 16x, slightly higher than historical mean

In a nutshell, US, Japan, Germany and UK will lead the global economy on recovery path.

China is worrying, because analyst has no accurate data to evaluate its economy. Its shadow banking problem might pop out soon, there are many bonds are soon to mature and might face credit defaults.

Property

Using 20 years period to measure, property is still solid, house price hasn’t outpaced purchasing power.But in recent 5 years, it is a bit overvalued.

Iskandar obviously is a bubble, there is too much land available for development. Singaporean will never stay in Iskandar, cause old man need medical support and Singapore has the best doctors in the world. And then the prosperous of an area must be supported by job creation. U dun wn to live in a place where u can’t find a job.

In a nutshell, high rise property will have a short term correction.

Investment opportunity on industry perspective

No good: banking,

Good: utility, oil and gas (shale gas and fracking tech breakthrough) and construction

Gold and silver

All the speakers are not in favour of gold and silver. There is no reason to buy yellow metal because there is no inflation in US and it has very limited industrial use.

Datuk Tong Kooi Ong’s investment

Mainly in oversea, positive on USD, got investment in US housing, in favour of countries that gov will appreaciate its currency.