Talk & Talk

PRLEXUS (8966):Bad economy, high inflation, high inventory - winter in garment factories

Publish date: Fri, 16 Sep 2022, 05:48 PM

Although Prolexus has been eliminated by NIKE, we can analyze the entire market trend based on the world economic and the operation of these brands such as NIKE and UA.

In the near term, active wear retails dealing with unprecedented macro headwinds: inventory levels, FX movements, European consumer that's now under incredible pressure.


In late June, Nike stock slumped further after issuing single-digit revenue growth expectations for the full-year 2023. Expected Nike to lower growth estimates, citing the company still battling a strengthening US dollar and inventories remaining high across North America.

Nike's overall inventory dollars in North America were up 44% in its most recent quarter. I think inventory levels will remain high, seen that in the channel play itself out in very heavy apparel promotions throughout the sector. And whether it's Nike, Adidas, Under Armour — everyone's been a bit more promotional recently. With inflation remaining near 40-year highs, the lower- and middle-income consumer is under a lot of inflationary pressure.

All of this means that sales are sluggish, and brand owners are digesting inventory, and will naturally stop placing orders, which in turn may cause garment factories to shrink orders by as much as 50% to 70%.

The recovery of the entire market is not optimistic and may not show light until the second half of 2023. So, it is expected that the performance of the next two quarters will not be satisfactory, and it is believed that the stock price will fall further.

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