kcchongnz blog
Musing on “Open Letters” on hot stock Lion Industry kcchongnz
Besides serious investing, I also try to have some fun to read i3investor which gives us a lot of entertainment recently. I just read a “Open Letter” by a new kid in town, Jerry Koh, on this hot topic on hot stock Lion Industry in the link dated 1 September 2018 below,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/JonnyKoh/172152.jsp
Kudos to Jerry, please continue writing. It helps us in our thinking process and hopefully improve our investment process. That is why I have been in here for more than 7 years already. After sowing some goodwill in i3investor in the initial years, I have to admit, I also benefit from many forms.
Hence, I would like to continue to contribute to i3investor, as long as I am welcomed. I always like to have feedback from my posts, whether it is positive or negative. That is how we share and learn in return. So, please welcome any comments, whether it is good or bad comments. This is in the internet space, and we can’t and shouldn’t discourage comments. Otherwise it doesn’t sound good, or even doggy; why do you write this particular post in the first place? Only I talk and you no talk?
With that, here are my sincere comments on your open letter to your highly respected person.
Jerry started with this statement,
“I am currently having 23% temporary loss in LionInd but I never blame Mr. Koon.”
Well done Jerry. That is the right attitude. If you lose money following anybody, you are the one who should take responsibility. It is your own fault to blindly follow anyone. For this, I would like to read the post below so that you can learn from your mistake of blindly following recommendation of buying any stock, “Never buy any stock touted by anyone”,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/157367.jsp
If you don’t learn from your mistake, and blinded somehow, you may continue doing the same thing, and losing money over and over again. It won’t be good for your financial wellbeing.
Jerry shared “several calls” made by someone famous "which are still correct until now". They were mostly made 3 to 4 years ago, the usual “pieces of old shits” in V.S., Latitude Tree and Lii Hen, which I believe those old timers here would have gotten too used to. But I particular like his most recent “sell call” on Masteel at RM1.14 which was made exactly half a year ago in the link shared by Jerry in his post here, “Why Malaysia Steel Share Price is Plunging?”
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/149250.jsp
Masteel post on 2nd March 2018
The reason for the sell call was stated as,
“As everyone can see there is an oversupply of buildings in every town and city in Malaysia, investors should know how this situation will affect all the steel manufacturers.
Malaysia Steel makes steel bars for the concrete construction. If developers and contractors cannot sell their properties, they will not buy steel bars. That is why Masteel’s 4th quarter EPS was only 4 sen, very much lower than all the other 3 quarters of the year 2017. Masteel’s future profit will continue to reduce.”
From the above post, I was greatly surprised by how the poor guy who recommended Masteel then got whacked by the author like nobody’s business! Furthermore, this person is closed to him and as far as I can see, has been saying all the good words about him. In fact, I was shocked, to say the least.
Was the earnings of Masteel continue to reduce after the post? Not really. In the following quarter, Masteel made RM17.7m as opposed to RM12.1m previously. So, was the "prediction" correct?
But true to the prediction, but only later when the lastest quarterly results was announced that its profit dropped again to RM8.0m. Masteel share price continues to drop and has dropped by closed to 50% to just 60 sen now in just half a year.
But the pertinent question is, what was the difference between Masteel and Lion Steel that the former got whacked so badly by the author, whereas the latter got praised to sky high as both companies’ main business is to provide long steel bars for buildings and houses, and infra-structure works. The question is even more relevant with the recent cancellation of some major infra-structure works.
Lion Industry Post on 17th August 2018
In Jerry’s post, and with the link provided below, “Why Lion Industry Share Price is Continuously Going Higher?” which the post was posted in i3investor on 17 August 2018,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/169974.jsp
Jerry mentioned in his open letter dated 1st September 2018 that, “The research of LionInd is comprehensive and correct:”
This was what was written in the above original blog, “Why Lion Industry Share Price is Continuously Going Higher?”
[“That is why Lion Industry has been making increasing profit in last few quarters. Its 1st Q EPS 4.08 sen, 2nd Q EPS 8.20 sen and 3rd Q ending March 2018 EPS 8.91 sen. The total EPS for 3 quarters is 21.19 sen. Assuming its 4h Q is the same as its 3rd Q, its total EPS for the full year will be about 30 sen.
Based on the last traded share price of Rm 1.25, its P/E ratio is about 4. It should be considered very cheap especially it has very good profit growth prospect which is following my share selection golden rule. I expect its 4th Q will be better than its 3rd Q.”
The expectation for the 4th quarter result was as good as the third quarter, i.e. 8.91 sen (with two decimals places some more), and that the total full year EPS would be 30 sen.
In view of its good increasing profit growth, if you have sold, you should buy back.]
Was that prediction correct? How was that correct?
Was the “advice” on “if you have sold, you should buy back”, at RM1.26 then, a great advice?
Lion Industry announced its 4th quarter result on 30th August 2018, two days before Jerry’s open letter as shown in the link below,
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5902149
Net profit for the quarter was RM27.65m, or an EPS of 4.17 sen. How is this compared with the prediction of 8.91 sen? Was the “Research” on Lion Industry "comprehensive" and “correct”?
Actually, if you look into more details of the results, RM16.7m was tax credit, something a company can claim for tax deduction only in the future if there is profit. You should look at its profit before tax, which is only RM10.95m.
If you know about how to read financial statement well, you will notice that there is an “exceptional item” on “Gain on disposal of an associate company” of RM10.3m. This item is an “exception” for this quarter and it is meaningless, unless of course Lion industry can have associate company to dispose off with a gain every quarter.
So, what does it leave us with the core profit of Lion Industry in this quarter? Almost zero for this quarter? So, was the prediction correct?
Lion Industry’s share price has retreated from RM1.26 from 2 weeks ago when the rosy earnings was made, and when the "You should buy back" advice was given to RM1.00 now. Was the advice to buy back (after it has gone up from 60 sen to RM1.26), a great advice?
In less than 2 weeks from the above post, another post on Lion Industry surfaced on 29th August 2018 as shown in the link below, “How Human Behaviour Affects Investment Decisions”,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/171781.jsp
This post was not mentioned in Jerry’s open letter.
Lion Industry post on 29th August 2018
There was a paragraph on “why I am selling Lion Industries when I know that it has a very good profit growth prospect?”
“Within a few weeks, we have bought about 30 million Lion Industries shares. When I know that it will announce a reduced profit for the next quarter which will be announced before then end of the month, we sold some shares to raise funds so that we can buy it back at cheaper prices. Currently, it looks like the worst is over and the price is going higher.”
Two weeks ago, the prediction was profit for the 4th quarter would be as good as the third. Now, also before the result was announced, he knew that there would be “reduced profit”, and he had sold shares in Lion Industry, and is waiting to buy back latter, knowing that “it looks like the worst is over and the price is going higher.”
What? Some kind of so-called Business Sense? Pivotal Moment? Dynamite investing?
But I have to admit that the part on "reduced profit" prediction was "brialliant" and it turned out true. And I love the prediction on,
“it looks like the worst is over and the price is going higher.”
Is that how you teach people how to become super investor?
Food for thought.
I think that is why people like Jerry who has lost 23%. But good boy, you don’t blame anyone, and you shouldn’t. In fact the great thing is that you praised him instead of just be silent. Hard to find good people like Jerry. Well done.
Wow, how I love to read articles in i3investor. It keeps our mind working, wondering and pondering all the time. Good to prevent azeilmer!
Appendix: Share price movement of Lion Industry
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Discussions
13 people like this. Showing 50 of 77 comments
Yang berhormat,
We come here to read what you said about lionind earning potential. The just released result good or bad, KC said no good because minus exceptional item it become zero. Future eye, probability and otb said can be good later because of HBI. Ks55 caution something about the impairment, Stockraider said about uncle koon, halite said uncle's intention is good but too honest. Nowadays it is not easy to cheat lah, if not the kampung malay would not had voted UMNO out in the election.
Ok?
No gaduh, no personal attack, stick strickly to the topic of discussion. If not I will do my job to invite you sit outside.
2018-09-02 13:49
Kc is 1 fake accountant.
Posted by ks55 > Sep 2, 2018 01:10 PM | Report Abuse
No.
I am referring to fake accountant.
2018-09-02 13:57
Posted by qqq3 > Sep 2, 2018 01:24 PM | Report Abuse
I attack otb and kc for good reasons one....
this is the best way to illustrate my points.
Bring your horse over. We need some entertainment in i3investor. Without you, there is less fun here.
Bring it on.
2018-09-02 14:13
Tun Dr. Mahathir's Forest City Mistake - Koon Yew Yin
Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Sun, 2 Sep 2018, 01:27 PM
Most readers are aware that I have been a strong supporter of Tun Dr. Mahathir when he decided to join Pakatan Harapan in getting rid of Prime Minister Najib Razak and Barisan rule. I am proud to say that I joined Tun Dr. Mahathir and Perak Pakatan leaders during their election rounds in the state and campaigned vigorously for them in my election speeches and I also provided financial support to all the 4 component parties.
It is truly gratifying to see that there is now a new state and federal government in place and to know that a new Malaysia is being born in which I played a small role in assisting in this rebirth.
Since then I have been appointed as a member of an Economic Advisory Committee to advise the new Perak state government on how to revive the state's economy which has stagnated after over 50 years of Barisan rule.
As an independent adviser, I feel it is important for me not only to monitor developments at the state level but also at the national one. It is also necessary that I frankly assess these developments and communicate my concerns should there be any.
One issue has been in the public eye recently which warrants my speaking out.
This is the Forest City project taking place in Johor which has become the target of considerable press coverage – nationally and internationally - as a result of a statement made by Tun Dr. Mahathir. According to news reports, Tun Dr. Mahathir told a business conference that overseas buyers will no longer be allowed to purchase homes in the US$100 billion Forest City development.
"One thing is certain, the city that is going to be built cannot be sold to foreigners".
Further he added “we are not going to give visas for people to come and live here. Our objection (towards this project) is because it was built for foreigners, not built for Malaysians.
Concerns over Tun Dr. Mahathir's Stand
Much as I respect the Prime Minister, I feel that he has not only spoken out of turn but also wrongly on this matter.
2018-09-02 14:15
Posted by qqq3 > Sep 2, 2018 12:56 PM | Report Abuse
this kc what is he good at?
whatever he is good at, making money is not one of them.
This article discuss about issues, prediction of quarterly results, steel industry etc. It has nothing to do with personality.
Why do you want to bring in kc?
Why do you care if he makes money?
2018-09-02 14:16
This time raider have to agree with kyy loh....!!
Very stupid loh....!!
Forest city has to go on mah, do not destroy the golden goose mah...!!
Why leh ?? What msian get ??
1. sell properties govt get stamp duties, quit rent and assessment, land development levies, management fees, broker fees etc.
2. They may use local construction material, some local staffs and rent local house & hotel mah...!!
3. The shops got more visits from the chinese owners and tourist loh....!!
4. The may take the malay taxis, grabs, durian etc loh....!!
If they stay they buy car, buy groceries, visit doctors....did give economic activities loh....!!
Raider ask what is the hard leh ???
Very very very stupid....this kind of nationalistic thinking loh...!!
2018-09-02 14:25
Posted by qqq3 > Sep 2, 2018 12:56 PM | Report Abuse
this kc what is he good at?
whatever he is good at, making money is not one of them.
Well, I have no comment on this comment as I do not like to boast around in the internet space. But just something to ponder about; are you good at making money in the stock market?
This may provide the answer.
quote "I believe if there is a survey done on qqq3 and me,
I am very sure I beat qqq3 flat.
qqq3 lost to me in a gentleman competition.
He is a forever loser if compared against me.
In term of knowledge and wealth, I am very sure I beat him flat.
qqq3 jumps 10 times still lose to me.
I told Mr Koon not to depend on me on stock recommendation, qqq3 can help him.
You guess what is the answer ?
If he is so good, he would have made million in KLSE.
RM 100k also cannot take out to invest in KLSE, how to make million ?
I am so sorry to say it out in this manner, I have no choice because he misbehave himself.
I do not wish to attack any person in I3 unless he bad mouth me all the times.
I stop here.
Thank you.
Ooi" Unquote
2018-09-02 14:26
Posted by Halite > Sep 2, 2018 02:28 PM | Report Abuse
Both KC and qqq3 share the same view lionind earning potential is not as promising as future eye, otb and probability said.
Since same view, the there is no horse to come over
Talk about otb is out of the topic, discussion not alliwed.
Please respect the ruling
Ah Seng, when you read something, you have to understand it before you make statement.
When and where did I make my view on the future earnings potential of Lionind?
When and where I share a similar view with this triple q? I don't want to touch him even if a ten-foot pole!
2018-09-02 14:32
KC,
1. You are right. I check back the record, you indeed did not say anything about the future, you said about the current QR.
2. I will never put you name together with QQQ3 again
Please forgive my negligence
Thank you for the correction
2018-09-02 14:46
This Lion thing , $ 900 million revenue last quarter......makes hardly any thing at operating level., and this while we have tarifs.
now, tell me...
why should Pakatan protect this WC and make our houses more expensive?
HBI? HBI was invented only after future eyes wrote his fake stuffs in i3?
any company with such high revenue can not make money....u want to touch?
now....look at this kc......
big picture la, business sense la....talk business sense la, big picture la......no need look with microscope to see.....accountant or not makes no difference in this case.....
in the case of Hibiscus....the sophisticated Accountant Profession has colluded with the corporations to produce their Accounting Standards for Mergers that produces accounts like Hibiscus that nobody understands unless one is an accountant.
2018-09-02 16:06
Good news.
In view of the good conduct of all participants
Warning point issued earlier is hereby cancelled
The demerit system is now ended.
Thank you.
2018-09-02 19:23
Get ready for more open letters when markets plunge this month.
Talking about sore losers putting the blame on someone else.
2018-09-02 20:08
Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2018 07:58 AM | Report Abuse
Dear KCChong,
I look into quarter report of HRC and Lionind. I think at most we can try to calculate/predict the operation profit. What is very difficult to predict is others losses sometime I suspect the management is playing with the account.
I really sympathy with OTB despite his hard working and doing a lot of research the quarter result remain unpredictable.
Thank you
All profits, whether operating or net profits are difficult to predict. It is difficult for retail investors, it is also difficult for professional analysts who have all the data, talk to management etc. Even it is difficult for management to predict.
Management can and often manage profit, but normally to make it good, rather than the other way around.
That is the theme of this article.
2018-09-02 21:12
qqq3 this kc want to focus on KYY because it is popular to do so.
I want to focus on his good pal, OTB because it is not popular to do so.
If you have just a little intelligent, you would know that this article is about issues; issues on difficulty in earnings predictions, the steel industry, and the twist-and-turn, and misleading contents about issues etc. It has nothing to do with any personality.
It has nothing to do with anybody whether how rich he is, how he has amassed his wealth, how well-known he is in the society, what he has been appointed to do in what committee etc.
I have no interest, absolutely none about the personality mentioned.
2018-09-02 22:28
Posted by CharlesT > Aug 28, 2018 09:19 AM | Report Abuse
Posted by qqq3 > Aug 28, 2018 09:16 AM | Report Abuse
I got no idea what good u see in OTB...ability to fool people?
If u can prove yr 3 years' good record here (not 5 years as OTB did) i will show u show respect too....lol
Ans :
I do not mind lose to anyone, definitely not this faked accountant qqq3.
He does not have RM 100k to invest in KLSE.
qqq3 jumps 100 times also cannot beat me.
He competed with me gentlemanly, he lost to me.
Forever, he is a loser to me.
The record is printed in I3.
FYI, he cannot even recommend a stock in I3.
Did you see anyone ?
Thank you.
Ooi
2018-09-02 22:40
I did not attack any person in I3 unless he bad mouth me.
I cannot post my article in I3 because it is not fair to my subscribers.
I do not see any reason how qqq3 keep on attacking me day and night.
The reason is very simple, he is jealous of my achievement.
Mr Koon trusted me more than him, he get jealous.
I told Mr Koon not to depend on me on stock recommendation, qqq3 can help him.
You guess what is the answer ?
If he is so good, he would have made million in KLSE.
RM 100k also cannot take out to invest in KLSE, how to make million ?
I am so sorry to say it out in this manner, I have no choice because he misbehave himself.
I do not wish to attack any person in I3 unless he bad mouth me all the times.
Thank you.
Ooi
2018-09-02 22:43
Why you never mentioned about all your lousy buy calls which cause your subscribers lost a lot of money.....lol
No....don't tell me why....I already have the answer....lol
Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Sep 2, 2018 10:56 PM | Report Abuse
Many of my good friends who had followed my recommendation since 2013, they invested RM 100,000 in 2013, the new capital at the end of 2017 was 1.2 Million RM. I certified my statement in my presentation in KL on 1/9/2018.
2018-09-02 23:04
Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 2, 2018 09:12 PM | Report Abuse
Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2018 07:58 AM | Report Abuse
Dear KCChong,
I look into quarter report of HRC and Lionind. I think at most we can try to calculate/predict the operation profit. What is very difficult to predict is others losses sometime I suspect the management is playing with the account.
I really sympathy with OTB despite his hard working and doing a lot of research the quarter result remain unpredictable.
Thank you
All profits, whether operating or net profits are difficult to predict. It is difficult for retail investors, it is also difficult for professional analysts who have all the data, talk to management etc. Even it is difficult for management to predict.
Management can and often manage profit, but normally to make it good, rather than the other way around.
That is the theme of this article.
Ans :
I do not really care people attack me because my prediction is wrong.
If they are so good, they should try to do it themselves and see what is the degree of accuracy.
As long I do my research, I try my very best, the prediction is still wrong. That is nothing much I can do since I had tried my very best.
I sleep well and I do not fell bad as long as I do not cheat anyone.
In this world, no 100% sure win in stock market.
Likewise on net profit prediction.
Thank you.
Ooi
2018-09-02 23:34
Dear KCChong and OTB,
Missing one or two prediction of quarterly result did not alter the big picture as long as the Fundamental analysis on the rolling few quarters and a keen eye on the world market, supply and demand, words price trend and etc remain positive.
Dear qqq3,
qqq3: posman dare not....get scolding.
01/09/2018 18:41
So got scolding from Mr. Koon or Not?
Thank you
2018-09-03 08:59
Sslee,
What is sifu?
Sifu is the one busy proving you are wrong I am right
What is sifu?
You want to fight me? Come! Come¡
Where is sifu enthusiasm to share their valuable knowledge?
Why should i? I don't owe you anything.
2018-09-03 09:18
Poking old man too hard, already merajuk. This is the end result. Blood flow like Yangtse river. No body gain...
2018-09-03 09:48
Posted by yewyin33 > Sep 3, 2018 06:17 AM | Report Abuse
I often see qqq3 attacking Ooi Teik Bee. I am sure OTB also hates qqq3 as much.
Unless qqq3 changes his attitude, he will remain poor.
I strongly recommend them to read "How to win friends and influence people" by Dale Carnegie. Besides the Holy Bible, it has printed and re-printed the most copies in the world. Many years ago, when I was managing Mudajaya and IJM Corporation I always give out this book to all my staff. Koon Yew Yin
2018-09-03 10:08
Dear qqq3,
you will be more successful if you follow what uncle said
I respect uncle because he his willing to share ,
right or wrong never mind .
there is always something to learn.
2018-09-03 10:17
who flagged me ?
am I not telling the true .
OTB , you are a good man
I support you.
2018-09-03 10:24
Get to know OTB for about a year. Yes he is good man and responsible person... however due to his 'coverage', he might have hurt many new comer and/or small fishes ..
2018-09-03 10:37
ken,
he can be better if he talk less about his past glory
he is not aware, emphasis on past glory invite jealousy and people set high expectation on you , when you can not meet their expectation , they will start to prove you wrong , not as great as you have claaim
2018-09-03 10:46
Ahseng,
Yes, stock market bull since april 2009.. anyone buy some stock in 2009 and hold could have earn some money... for example most blue counter Maybank... I estimate appreciated more than 300% (include div) since April 2009... mean earn abt 30% each year.
2018-09-03 10:56
if you have a slightest understanding of psychology
when someone willing to say " I am willing to compensate your loss, if it isme who have cheated you "
then you will most probably agree with me than uncle's intention is genuine. not to cheat you or mislead you
2018-09-03 10:57
But he can't compensate everyone being misleaded..
My conclusion is if you are 'public figure' you need to speak with care.. can easily mislead someone due to the coverage is too wide. The level of understanding is very uneven between big fish, shark and small fish and bilis..
2018-09-03 11:03
yes, I agree he is a public figure
but he is also an old man with big ego
he is not a politician, he doesn't know how to protect himself
he is too honest
he still have a lot to learn from many great sifu in the market
who eat you up quietly , yet you still respect him like God
2018-09-03 11:09
I see your point and fully understand..
I active in i3 for about 18 months only. I learn a lot, NOT FA, TA, buy good shares etc.. but human behavior..
2018-09-03 11:16
it is ok to prove him inconsistent or wrong in his recommendation like what many sifu have already done . but it is definitely unbecoming to label him con-koon.
Moreover his recommendation is actually the hard work of his advisor whom he has paid a few thousand ringgit for the work
2018-09-03 11:18
do you find any great sifu willing to share with you sincerely in i3 nowadays?
practically none. they are more interested in their subscription business.
anything wrong ?
nothing wrong .
in fact very good .
because money can buy their sincerity
2018-09-03 11:23
I agree, one may criticize him and point out his mistake, but labeling him Conman is very unreasonable..
2018-09-03 11:24
what is the difference in i3 now and 3 or 4 years ago?
a lot of good writing sharing of good knowledge
now?
more self promotion than sincere sharing
2018-09-03 11:30
More than half of the i3 postings are scolding each other, labeling each other, create fake info/news..etc .... but not too bad there are still a little knowledge sharing and construction discussion..
2018-09-03 12:08
To kcchongnz - thanks for a good write-up on Jerry's "Open Letters". Please keep on sharing.
2018-09-07 16:43
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