kcchongnz blog
Where have all the value investors gone? kcchongnz
I just read a very good article by Ian Tai, a value investor and an investor coach, I think, posted by Tan KW in i3investor here,
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600183119.jsp?fp=2
Reading the article, a value investor like me will straightaway knows that the writer knows his stuff well, and I strongly believe he is a great investor too.
Then as usual, I saw this comment from the most active with the loudest noise in i3investor,
Posted by qqq3 > Nov 21, 2018 11:00 AM | Report Abuse 
turns me off whenever all these cari makan people have to start with...in Buffet case....
can't they be a bit more inventive?
In my school days, I respected our teachers, who have taught as selflessly. Many of them “cari makan” earning a few hundred Ringgit a month to put food on table. Many of us become good citizens and some became successful professionals and businessmen. I myself feel very grateful to all my teachers who had taught me and enable me to be a useful citizen with a satisfying career as a civil engineer.
So, what is wrong with value investor coaches, who sweat it out with long hour of time and hard work, probably is earning a living teaching all the good stuff in value investing?
I opine that teaching the right way of investing, such as value investing, enables participants to avoid the pitfalls investing in the stock market and build long-term wealth is an extremely useful for anybody. Don’t you think so?
Is teaching and earn some income a form of stealing, cheating, robbing or some shameful behaviour?
How can teaching “turn off” someone, and deserves his continuous contempt compared with people who deceive and manipulate the stock market, such as shouting and asking everyone to sailing and margin on some stocks with doubtful management when they were selling high, and now lost half their values, and at the back they made huge amount of profit?
Sharing articles in i3investor doesn’t seem to have much fun nowadays. Almost all writers were ridiculed and scorned with. Many of them just forget about sharing anymore. In fact, I though of stop wasting my time any more. Here is another comment just yesterday.
Posted by qqq3 > Nov 20, 2018 08:39 PM | Report Abuse
ckeoky...this forum too many people look down on Tarc, look down on people who says he says he has $ 100 k portfolio....where are there today? the OTB, the KC and the Icons of this world? where are all the Buffalo worshippers?
dead or alive also don't know....
Warren Buffett is the richest investor in the world. He is what he is nowadays because of his skill in value investing, few can get close to. Even very successful fund managers all over the world cite him and treat him as a role model in investing. So, before you scorn him, look at the mirror first.
Yes, where do you stand just having RM100k to invest when compared to Warren Buffett. Nobody despises you for not having much money to invest, but should you despise Warren Buffett by keep on calling him “Buffalo”?
TARC produces some of the best professionals, entrepreneurs and great ordinary citizens in Malaysia and abroad. Who despises TARC? Of course, they surely be some not-so-great, or even black sheep. If one being treated as one, maybe it is good he should have a deep thought on what he has done, look at the mirror and does some reflection.
About on your concern about KC, thank you very much. He, as a true value investor, is alive and kicking.
I know you must be thinking with this lousy stock market, a value investor like KC would have “dieded”, and licking his wound with his value stocks.
To the contrary. KC has written a recent article on his stock pick service during this difficult time, titled, “No Eye See Value Investing” here,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/179523.jsp
The article mentioned for his stocks picked this year, that, “The portfolio of 5 value stocks return an average of 2.3% this year as shown in Table 1 in the Appendix. It is nothing great at all, but aren’t they better than the loss of 23% of the mid and small cap stocks”
That was a month ago on 24th October 2018. Today on 21th November 2018, I would like to amend the paragraph to,
“The portfolio of 5 value stocks return an average of +8.0% this year as shown in Table 1 in the Appendix. It is nothing great at all, but aren’t they much better than the loss of 5.7% of the FBMKLSE and the 23.6% loss of the mid and small cap stocks”
There will always be comments like below,
Posted by kcchongnz > Oct 24, 2018 09:07 PM | Report Abuse X
Posted by PotentialGhost > Oct 24, 2018 08:44 PM | Report Abuse
I believe you I cut my bird ,if you dare show your real statement la o0o
Is this a deal?
But I have not got a commitment from him whether it is a deal yet.
That was the return during the bad time. I have shared in i3investors numerous articles on my records of extra-ordinary returns of my portfolios during the good times too when my portfolios return a few times more than the broad index, all of them.
So, don’t worry about us value investor. We are okay even during the bad time. Some of us value investors may have their portfolio value reduced, some may be quite substantially. But value investors are prudent people. They buy good companies at cheap prices. Few of them sailing or margin following rumours and tips. They never get caught in margin calls, and the value of their portfolio will eventually recover, and even makes more money.
What is wrong with value investing which has been proven successful strategy from numerous academic researches and the experience and outcome of many super investors in the world.
Why is it “sinful” to teach some good stuff to help investors to build long-term wealth steadily, safely and surely, and propagate value investing to benefit the public?
KC Chong
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Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 50 of 84 comments
Posted by arv18 > Nov 22, 2018 05:14 PM | Report Abuse
Anyone knows which "value investors" participated in d Jaks Private Placement @ 1.38?
===========
i got no idea....I can only assume a lot of it is taken by the directors and their nominees......
2018-11-22 17:18
Posted by qqq3 > Nov 22, 2018 05:03 PM | Report Abuse
trick? what trick?
do u not know stock market is a battle field.?....u can do whatever u want as long as it is not illegal....I cannot claim I have a monopoly on the future.....
The comment below explains your tricks very well. I know you are damn proud of it.
Posted by qqq3 > Nov 2, 2018 01:43 AM | Report Abuse
kc u fail to understand, Jaks and Sendai are the 2 counters I made the most money...and why not? when I know the chong ker.....and I have the killer instinct..........
When shares were promoted with "sailang" and margin financing calls with prominent "chong ker" and its accomplice, and as a result, naive newbies chased the shares to RM1.80+ and RM1.20+ and lost a fortune, but he himself made a "killing", again and again, I don't think it is a great thing to boast about.
It is really a very sad state that our society has gone through such a terrible state of morality.
2018-11-22 17:19
kc....I like every one else....I buy and sell at my own risk....I lose money, no one will pity me.......
2018-11-22 17:21
raja...it is not really a zero sum game...bull market, everybody party.......bear market, everybody is supposed to lose.....but I don't know why I make money.....lol.....
2018-11-22 17:31
raja...it is not really a zero sum game....but I guess, a share up and then down to starting point....it really is a zero sum game......
2018-11-22 17:33
Just need to calculate intrinsic value.
Share price oscillates along that line.
Above is over price.
Below is under price.
KC suggested 30% below the line represents margin of safety
What I can see is some are 50% below
Some are even with safety margin up to 80%
Up to you to argue your point
Make right choice and you will be rewarded
Always remember "BUY GOOD SHARE CHEAP"
2018-11-22 17:47
ks...what happens when the calculate intrinsic value
is the source of all pains?
maybe even the source of all mistakes?
the thing that becomes got eyes no see........
2018-11-22 17:56
almost by definition....all so called value investors only see one version of the truth.....it is almost by definition......
http://blairbellecurve.com/we-only-see-a-version-of-the-truth/
2018-11-22 18:02
it is believers like this kc who is getting so many people blind sided....not me........
http://blairbellecurve.com/we-only-see-a-version-of-the-truth/
2018-11-22 18:04
me? I try to scan every thing, accept every trend, I make no opinion that is inflexible....I know there are limits to multi tasking, limits to know every thing. ..I know there is no such thing as intrinsic values unless u want to take over the company, control the company.
2018-11-22 18:14
I remember somebody asked to sailang and sialang Jaks and Sendai based on cow sense.
Jaks and Sendai have not much fundamentals, all above their intrinsic values.
Some more with OPM !
Are you the one?
Still kicking?
2018-11-22 18:20
To me Jaks worth only 40 sen
Sendai even worse, can consider only below 30 sen
2018-11-22 18:22
Stock: [SENDAI]: EVERSENDAI CORPORATION BERHAD
Nov 12, 2018 03:31 PM | Report Abuse
Sendai supporters all bankrupt already?
Still believe super speculator to help you grow rich?
What I can remember is Sendai is 'expert' in steel fabrication.
What I can remember is Sendai having multi billion contract in hand.
All these remind me Linear went burst after it reported to Bursa it had received offer worth 1 billion ringgit in Dinding Cooling Tower project which never materialize, and many still believe what has been announced to Bursa is gospel truth.
Auditors report may not be credible just like Xingquan.
Auditors report may close one eye to creative accounting like in LICB.
Auditors report may raise red flags to the accounts but still not prepare to give qualified accounting report like Parkson.
What else I can say?
Don't trust any advice from half past six IB recommendation.
Don't believe in super investor's word.
Don't take in total so-called professionals in the field they claim they know the best.
Many only see tree instead of forest.
Many only see assets not liabilities.
Many only see big building without knowing things are already rotten inside.
Many only see company's turnover getting bigger and bigger but never realize profit become smaller and smaller.
What you need to do?
1. Know fundamentals of your company
2. Know your Directors
3. Know company's prospect and vision
4. Know quality of company's management, it reflects company's work ethics
2018-11-22 18:26
ks55 Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD
Nov 12, 2018 03:35 PM | Report Abuse
Jaks supporters all bankrupt already?
Still believe super speculator to help you grow rich?
What I can remember is Jaks is 'expert' in power generation.
What I can remember is Jaks having multi billion building contract in hand that failed to deliver.
All these remind me Linear went burst after it reported to Bursa it had received offer worth 1 billion ringgit in Dinding Cooling Tower project which never materialize, and many still believe what has been announced to Bursa is gospel truth.
Auditors report may not be credible just like Xingquan.
Auditors report may close one eye to creative accounting like in LICB.
Auditors report may raise red flags to the accounts but still not prepare to give qualified accounting report like Parkson.
What else I can say?
Don't trust any advice from half past six IB recommendation.
Don't believe in super investor's word.
Don't take in total so-called professionals in the field they claim they know the best.
Many only see tree instead of forest.
Many only see assets not liabilities.
Many only see big building without knowing things are already rotten inside.
Many only see company's turnover getting bigger and bigger but never realize profit become smaller and smaller.
What you need to do?
1. Know fundamentals of your company
2. Know your Directors
3. Know company's prospect and vision
4. Know quality of company's management, it reflects company's work ethics
2018-11-22 18:26
ks
told u many times already...Don't trust your intrinsic values...trust your observations better.....
2018-11-22 18:32
You trust Fred Tham's TAVA?
You trust Japanese Candle Sticks?
You trust KYY?
OR you trust your cow sense?
2018-11-22 18:32
Yes.
I did not make from Sendai
Yes. I did not make from Jaks
What does it means?
Many dead heroes lined the highway in Desert Storm, NOT ME.......
2018-11-22 18:34
ks....u asking me?
I trust my observations.....that is the only thing I have .....its my business sense vs the rest of the world.....
2018-11-22 18:35
to all value investors.....
http://blairbellecurve.com/we-only-see-a-version-of-the-truth/
2018-11-22 18:37
I don't know how good are you actually.
But I know for your age, you still have to depend on OPM to trade in the market.
You should have been enjoying your golden years by now, and not to worry whether Down Jones down by 1000 points or not.
買股是為了增加生活情趣, 不是終日提心吊胆
2018-11-22 18:42
ks...don't worry....I would not be begging or borrowing from anyone here.....
In fact it just suits me if people don't rely on me too much...I don't like the pressure that comes with it.....
2018-11-22 18:44
ks...I prefer people who can think....use their brain, u know....not just quote here quote there......
2018-11-22 19:18
ks55,
Could you please email me at meatboneteafriend@gmail.com?
I've always liked how you consider and process things and would like to learn from you and your experience.
Allow me to buy you a quick cup of coffee.
2018-11-22 20:15
kc
quote here quote there cannot make money one.
to make money u actually got to buy a share......
2018-11-22 23:44
Correction: "When I quote here quote there, cannot make money one".
Note the "I". KC have proven over so many years that he makes money. But you choose to ignore it.
You on the other hand.
Have something like a turkey before Christmas syndrome.
=====
Posted by qqq3 > Nov 22, 2018 11:44 PM | Report Abuse
kc
quote here quote there cannot make money one.
to make money u actually got to buy a share......
2018-11-22 23:49
choivo....KC has run away from mentioning a single share for years already......don't believe me? go ask him.....
2018-11-23 00:03
Dear qqq3,
I refer to your old blog:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stockman/128357.jsp
3 ingredients to be hugely successful
- able to sailang and go for the kill (in the words of Value Cap)
- can keep the winners
- a blessed life
May I ask?
1. Cheoky comment: My guess is you never got balls to sailang in stock market before OR your sailang with mistake is due soon. By age 84, with above as your guiding principles, I can guarantee you are the at Jalan Padu wearing tore shirt shouting sailang Sendai, sailang jaks, sailing Manny to nothing.
2. Have you able to keep any of your winners? My advice do not forget to sell at the peak. qqq3 > Oct 29, 2018 10:08 PM | Report Abuse i still have my $12 kesm.......still waiting for the bounce....
3. A blessed life??? Aside from talk 3, talk 4, talk east, talk west and talk cock in i3 do you really have a life outside the i3?
Thank you
PS: Stanleyong comment:
This is a very dangerous and irresponsible piece of 'sailang' writing. It will get more investors in trouble and benefit a few manipulators. My advise to newbies and serious investors, always remember the stock market is a jungle where nobody pities you if you are greedy , naive and stupid to follow the wrong so called 'conman gurus' and lose your pants.
23/07/2017 21:00
Cheoky comment: Firstly, we are human, not machine. Making mistake n having blind spot is inherently humane. My guess is you never got balls to sailang in stock market before OR your sailang with mistake is due soon. By age 84, with above as your guiding principles, I can guarantee you are the at Jalan Padu wearing tore shirt shouting sailang Sendai, sailang jaks, sailing Manny to nothing. I guarantee. Don't contrarian for the sake of just contrarian. Use margin of safety as guiding principle old man.
Apolloang comment: remember using bank margins, when the weather is good the bank will lend u an umbrella,when it is raining the bank will ask for the umbrella back.if banks can lend me unlimited funds without recalling me to top up when market is bad, I also can sailing whatever I can buy,just like many big shots in 1997. contra win is personal pocket,contra loss let bank force sell and owe bank and no need to pay
23/07/2017 21:48
Kcchongnz comment: Power up your knowledge
Take calculated risk
Dare to take decision
SAILANG stock with real power up
Manny,
What knowledge do you have? Panic moment? seX factor? Dynamite investing? Sialang? Can elaborate ah?
How you "Power up" these Panic moment, seX factor, Dynamite, Sialnag? Can elaborate ah?
Calculated risk? What risks you are referring to?How you calculate your risk?
Dare to take decision? How you arrive at a 'decision"?
Sailang? You know those following you sailang in Jaks at RM1.70+ and Sendai at RM1.30+ have already got margin calls and lost their pants because of your hype?
You call that "Real power up" ah?
rchi comment: Me sailang regularly,but i hv more than 25 yrs experience in bursa. my return to date for 2017 is in the hundreds of %. but i never once encourage any newbies aka young ppl to sailang, instead i encourage them to learn n learn to gather experience.
Me think this article by manmy is highly inappropriate for newbies. DO NOT follow manmy,you will be ruined.
2018-11-23 08:50
ss
thanks...very important, still relevant....
3 ingredients to be hugely successful
- able to sailang and go for the kill (in the words of Value Cap)
- can keep the winners
- a blessed life
2018-11-23 08:54
y ks55 > Nov 22, 2018 05:47 PM | Report Abuse
Just need to calculate intrinsic value.
Share price oscillates along that line.
Above is over price.
Below is under price.
==============
only in your dream world....first, the world is not static, never static.
and when it oscillates to the bottom, u will be faced with fear of the unknowns...and when it oscillates to the top, u will be faced with fear of missing out......
intrinsic value? what has intrinsic value got to do with minority shareholders? what is it anyway?
2018-11-23 09:11
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/perak-dap-adviser-ngeh-most-151440939.html
speakup regret donated a lot to PH in last GE. Didn't know all PH leaders soooo filthy rich! Why they ask rakyat for money when their leaders already sooooo filthy rich?
2018-11-23 09:13
value investment ( long time ) investing has change over years. market has changed. buy and hold no longer applies. you can hold the stock for 5 -6 years ( but the price may never move or worst slide ) just my personal view
2018-11-23 09:27
y Jonathan Keung > Nov 23, 2018 09:27 AM | Report Abuse
value investment ( long time ) investing has change over years. market has changed. buy and hold no longer applies. you can hold the stock for 5 -6 years ( but the price may never move or worst slide ) just my personal view
==============
this is more matured......but too many nuances will not be popular with cari makam quotes.
2018-11-23 09:29
no such thing as intrinsic value for minority shareholders....
sure, at any time, there is such a thing as relative valuations......
that is why nothing beats a broad scan, the big picture, relative trends and group dynamics.......
2018-11-23 10:25
ss
so what is your problem?
don't want to pay the price in risk, want to make money?
where got like that one?
2018-11-23 10:45
I think the hurdle that many value investor faced is the psychological factor that caught most offguard. But once you have established that the company you haven chosen has very good prospects and selling at a very attractive price, you just have to wait. I think most people here in BURSA expect to make money instantly, but it does not work that way. Buffett bought The Washington Post in 1970s for what he thinks is a 400M company at 100M, after 1.5 years, the stock continue to drop another 50%. I think at this point most people would comment that he got trapped and value investing don't work. I mean 1.5 years is not a short period to wait and to see a 50% drop in value of your portfolio will make you even more impatient. But shortly after that drop of 50%, the stock went up more than 10x the value he bought. Buffett once said in his annual meeting that the valuation method is not that important as the attitude you have towards the stock market. I still think it is relevant today.
2018-11-23 11:04
d by GrahamNewman > Nov 23, 2018 11:04 AM | Report Abuse
after 1.5 years
========
lol.....
2018-11-23 11:29
graham...go tell kc...after 1.5 weeks his students throw rock at him already.....better stop teaching....
2018-11-23 11:30
by qqq3 > Nov 23, 2018 11:29 AM | Report Abuse X
d by GrahamNewman > Nov 23, 2018 11:04 AM | Report Abuse
after 1.5 years
=======
no different that a fengshui master.....
2018-11-23 11:32
GrahamNewman > Nov 23, 2018 11:04 AM | Report Abuse
t The Washington Post in 1970s
========
people using typewriters then....
2018-11-23 11:46
Kesm:
A Net profit margin of 3.2% is not worth business because you can get a higher interest rate when you deposit money in a Malaysian bank in a fixed duration. 3.2% is a multi-year low. Don't expect its net profit margin will stay so low. It will double or triple easily. If a net profit margin stays so low, the management should get replaced
2018-11-23 21:14
Analysts'TPs are based on the unrealistic net profit margin. But it will go up easily. I don't believe any analysts. They told us that in the beginning of 2018, Kesm was a good buy and now lowered its TPs beased on the unrealistic net profit margin. They are jokes!
I believe a net profit margin of 7-9% will be realistic in the near future. Then, its TP will be much higher.
2018-11-23 21:18
target prices, intrinsic values same same....they serve to mislead u......better is look at the business and have the business sense....to buy or sell.
2018-11-23 21:51
I have seen some net profit jumps in Kesm.
FY2009: 448K-> 5,756K
FY2013: 47K-> 4,128K
FY2014: 1,360K->6.679K
FY2015: 1,732K->10,451K
Usually a very low net profit margin was followed by a very high profit margin.
You should expect a much higher net profit margin and net profit after a very low net profit margin was observed.
2018-11-23 23:49
tec..fair points....well, I sold at $ 12.40....I will choose my entry for another round......
2018-11-24 00:57
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arv18
Anyone knows which "value investors" participated in d Jaks Private Placement @ 1.38?
2018-11-22 17:14