Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 19 Aug 2014

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Publish date: Tue, 19 Aug 2014, 09:43 AM

Malaysia

July Vehicle Sales Hit 60,267 Units. Vehicle sales rose 2.9% to 60,267 units in July from June, boosted by aggressive sales campaigns by industry players. However, sales of passenger and commercial vehicles in July dropped almost 12% from the 68,431 units recorded in the same period of last year. In a statement yesterday, the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) said of the vehicles sold last month, 53,578 were passenger vehicles, while the balance 6,689 units were commercial vehicles. On the outlook for this month, MAA expects sales to be maintained at the July level due to a longer working month and the continuation of the aggressive promotional campaign by car companies. (NST)

Asia

Thailand's Economy Avoids Technical Recession. Thailand's economy avoided a technical recession in the second quarter, suggesting the country may be back on the path to growth following a military coup in May. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.9% in the three months to June, compared with the previous quarter. On an annual basis, the Thai economy grew by 0.4% from a year earlier. Months of political turmoil before the coup caused a drop in exports, foreign investment and tourism. The revised figures show the economy contracted by 1.9% rather than the 2.1% decline initially reported for the period from January to March. A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. (BBC)

Thai Junta Boosts Spending On Defense, Education In Draft Budget. Thai junta leader General Prayuth Chan-ocha, stressing that the military had a "limited time" in power before a return to civilian rule, submitted a draft fiscal 2015 budget on Monday, with defense and education receiving hefty increases. The Ministry of Education was allocated 498.16bil baht ($15.66bil), a 3.2% increase from last year's budget and 19.5% of the total budget allocations. Prayuth has called for education reforms as part of his plans to reshape the country and restore political stability. Defense spending, which typically increases in Thailand after a coup, grew 5% from last year's allocation to 193.07bil baht ($6.07bil). The 2.58 trillion baht ($81.08bil) draft budget, up around 2% from 2014, was submitted to the military-dominated National Legislative Assembly and will be considered by ad-hoc committees and adopted in the coming weeks. (Reuters)

Singapore July Exports Down, Sales To Us, China Pick Up. Singapore's exports in July fell less than expected as shipments to major economies picked up, suggesting the manufacturing sector may have bottomed out on the back of an improving economic outlook in the United States and signs of resilience in China. Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) eased 3.3% in July from a year earlier, trade agency International Enterprise Singapore said on Monday in a statement, beating a forecast of a 3.9% slide in a Reuters poll. On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, NODX grew 2.5%, above a forecast of a 1.0% rise prediction. (Reuters)

China January - July FDI Falls For First Time In 17 Months. China's foreign direct investment inflows in January-July fell for the first time in 17 months compared with the same period a year earlier, as firms from Japan, Europe and the United States cut spending in the manufacturing sector. China attracted $71.1bil in foreign direct investment (FDI) between January and July, down 0.4% from a year ago and its first decline since February 2013, the commerce ministry said. For July alone, the world's second-biggest economy drew $7.8bil worth of FDI, the least in two years. (Reuters)

China Home Prices Fall In Most Cities On Weak Demand. China’s new-home prices fell in July in almost all cities that the government tracks as tight mortgage lending deterred buyers even as local governments eased property curbs. Prices fell in 64 of the 70 cities last month from June, the National Bureau of Statistics said today, the most since January 2011 when the government changed the way it compiles the data. Beijing prices fell 1% from June, posting the first monthly decline since April 2012. (Bloomberg)

USA

Homebuilder Confidence In U.S. Increases To Seven-Month High. Confidence among U.S. homebuilders rose in August to the highest level in seven months, showing the industry is making more headway after weakness earlier this year. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment measure climbed to 55 from 53 in July, the Washingtonbased group reported today. Readings above 50 mean more respondents said conditions were good. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists projected it would hold at 53. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Bundesbank Casts Doubt On German Economic Rebound In Second Half. The Bundesbank said geopolitical tensions may impede a rebound of the German economy, Europe’s largest, after it contracted in the second quarter. “The economic outlook for the German economy has clouded over in the middle of the year in response to unfavorable international news,” the Frankfurt-based central bank said in its monthly report for August published today. “Expectations for a strengthening of economic momentum in the second half of 2014 underlying the spring projections are called into question by current data.” The Bundesbank predicted in June that the German economy will expand 1.9% this year and 2% in 2015. That compares with ECB forecast of euro-area growth of 1% and 1.7%, respectively. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

British Pound Climbs As Carney Plays Down Wages. The British pound rose against the U.S. dollar on Monday after the Bank of England chief signaled that the central bank could raise interest rates before wage growth accelerates. The pound bought $1.6730 on Monday morning in New York, up from $1.6696 late Friday. The dollar rose to ¥102.56 on Monday in New York from ¥102.36 late Friday. The euro was at $1.3362, down from $1.3400. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a group of rivals, was at 81.572, up from 81.436 on Friday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Crude Hits New 14-Month Low As Supply Risks Ease. Brent crude oil shed nearly $2 a barrel to reach its lowest price in over a year on Monday as investor concerns over conflict in Ukraine and Iraq eased, and as higher Libyan oil output added to already ample supplies. Brent crude fell $1.93 to settle at $101.60 a barrel, after notching a session low of $101.11, the lowest since June 2013. U.S. crude for September fell by 94 cents to settle at $96.41, after paring losses from an earlier low of $95.81. (Reuters)

Gold Falls As Ukraine Tensions Ease. Gold fell on Monday as the threat of an escalation of tensions in Ukraine appeared to wane for now, and a rally in global equity markets and strength in the dollar sent bullion prices below $1,300 an ounce. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,299.34 by 2:17 p.m. EDT (1817 GMT), while U.S. COMEX gold futures for December delivery settled down $6.90 an ounce at $1,299.30. Among other precious metals, silver edged up 0.3% to $19.64 an ounce and platinum fell 0.9% to $1,439.50 an ounce. Palladium rose to a fresh 13-year high of $900.00 an ounce earlier on fears over supply from top producer Russia and strong demand prospects. The autocatalyst metal later inched down 6 cents to $890.44 as investors took profits. (Reuters)

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