Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 22 Aug 2014

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Publish date: Fri, 22 Aug 2014, 09:45 AM

Asia

Japan Aug Flash PMI Shows Manufacturing Accelerated. Japanese manufacturing activity accelerated in August as export and domestic demand increased, a preliminary survey showed on Thursday, offering hope that economic growth is getting back on track after slumping in the wake of a sales tax increase in April. The Markit/JMMA flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 52.4 in August, up from a final reading of 50.5 in July. The index remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction for the third straight month and showed the fastest expansion since March. The output component of the flash PMI index rose to 53.2 from a final 49.8 in July. The new orders index surged to 54.4 from 51.2, indicating domestic demand is picking up momentum. (Reuters)

Japan Manufacturers’ Confidence Improves. Confidence at Japanese manufacturers inched up in August to mark the first improvement since April, but the service sector’s mood soured for the second straight month, a Reuters poll showed, reflecting a tame economic recovery from April’s sales tax rise. The Reuters Tankan poll of 400 big firms taken Aug. 418, of which 281 replied, followed data last week that showed the economy had suffered its worst slump in April-June since the March 2011 disaster. Although policy-makers and private sector economists expect a rebound in the current quarter, the poll indicated that any recovery is likely to be modest. In the Reuters Tankan, the sentiment index at manufacturers stood at plus 20, up 1 point from July. The services sector gauge was at plus 19 in August, down 4 points from the prior month and marking a second straight month of declines. Indexes are calculated by subtracting the percentage of pessimistic responses from optimistic ones. (Reuters)

China August HSBC Flash PMI Slips To 3-Month Low. Growth in China's vast factory sector slowed to a three-month low in August as output and new orders moderated, a preliminary private survey showed on Thursday, reinforcing concerns about increasing softness in the economy. The HSBC/Markit Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.3 from July's 18-month high of 51.7, missing a Reuters forecast of 51.5. It was the lowest reading since May, though the PMI stayed above the 50-point level that separates growth in activity from contraction for a third consecutive month. (Reuters)

USA

U.S. Factory Activity Expands At Fastest Pace In Over Four Years In Aug. The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in August, with the rate of growth exceeding expectations and moving at the fastest pace in more than four years, an industry report showed on Thursday. Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary or "flash" U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 58 in August, which was its highest since April 2010, from 55.8 in July. Economists polled by Reuters expected a reading of 55.7. A reading above 50 signals expansion in economic activity. The output sub index jumped to 60.2 from last month's 59.7. (Reuters)

Home Sales Show U.S. Pickup As Factories Expand. The economy in the U.S. took a step forward as home sales unexpectedly climbed, manufacturing accelerated and the outlook for the second half of 2014 brightened. Purchases of previously owned homes rose in July to a 5.15 million annualized pace, a 10-month high, according to data from the National Association of Realtors in Washington. A factory gauge climbed in August to the loftiest level in more than four years, the index of leading indicators jumped last month and fewer Americans than projected filed claims for jobless benefits last week, other reports showed. (Bloomberg)

Jobless Claims In U.S. Declined More Than Forecast Last Week. Fewer Americans than forecast applied for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the U.S. job market is making progress as the world’s largest economy grows. Jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 298,000 in the week ended Aug. 16, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 46 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 303,000. Continuing claims fell to the lowest level in more than seven years. (Bloomberg)

Leading Economic Indicators In U.S. Rise By Most In Four Months. An index of U.S. leading indicators rose in July by the most in four months, as stronger job growth helps power the world’s largest economy. The Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading indicators, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, climbed 0.9% after a 0.6% gain in June, the New York-based group said today. The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.6% advance. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Eurozone Business Growth Slows In August, PMI Data Shows. Eurozone business growth slowed in August, weighed down by sluggish French and German economies. The latest Markit Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 52.8 from July's 53.8. A reading above 50 indicates growth. In France, the service sector expanded faster, but manufacturing shrank, to give a reading of 50, slightly up from 49.4 in July. In Germany, the composite index fell to 54.9, from 55.7 in July. The eurozone's timid performance may fuel calls for the European Central Bank to act to inject more life into the euro bloc. (BBC)

Euro-Area Consumer Sentiment Drops As Ukraine Threatens Recovery. Euro-area consumer confidence declined in August as escalating political tensions in eastern Europe threaten the region’s already faltering economic recovery. An index of household sentiment in the euro zone decreased to minus 10 from minus 8.4 in July, the European Commission in Brussels said in a preliminary report today. That is below the median forecast of minus 9.1 in a Bloomberg News survey of 22 economists. (Bloomberg)

UK Retail Sales Rise Less Than Expected In July. Retail sales rose by 2.6% in July, up just 0.1% from June, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show. The growth was weaker than many analysts' estimates that the month-onmonth increase would be about 0.4%. The ONS said that downward pressure on retail sales came from non-store retailing and fuel. Prices in stores fell 0.9%, after being flat in June, underlining a continuing price war on the high street. The 1.3% fall in spending in food stores in July was the first year-on-year decline since 1989 when the series began. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Rally Pauses As Investors Turn To Jackson Hole. The U.S. dollar paused its forceful push higher on Thursday as investors bet that global central bankers will stick to their easy-money policies when they meet in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The U.S. dollar inched up to 103.81 Japanese yen on Thursday morning, from ¥103.76 late Wednesday. The euro bought $1.3281, up from $1.3264 in the previous session. The British pound was down slightly at $1.6585 from $1.6598. The dollar index which measures the greenback against a group of its rival currencies, slipped to 82.146, from 82.222. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Crude Oil Recovers On U.S. Economic Data After Early Slide. U.S. and Brent crude futures rose on Thursday, lifted by supportive economic data from the United States after a plentiful supply picture and Chinese economic data had earlier pressured prices. U.S. October crude futures rose 51 cents to settle at $93.96 a barrel, reversing earlier losses that sent prices to $92.50, the lowest since Jan. 15. The U.S. September contract expired on Wednesday at $96.07, up $1.59 on the day and with the premium of the front-month over the nearby contract CLc1-CLc2 reaching $3.12 intraday. Brent October crude on Thursday rose 35 cents to settle at $102.63, up from its session low of $101.21. Brent fell to $101.07 on Tuesday, its lowest since June 26, 2013, the same month it was last traded under $100 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Hits 2-Month Low On Technical Sales, Fed Hike Fears. Gold slid 1.4% to its lowest in two months on Thursday, extending losses to a fifth session, as fears about an early interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve sparked a technical sell-off after prices broke below a key support level. Spot gold was down 1.4% at $1,274.26 by 1:19 p.m., having earlier traded as low $1,273.06 an ounce, its weakest since June 18. Among other precious metals, silver fell 0.2% to $19.42 an ounce, having earlier touched a two-month low of $19.25. Spot platinum fell to its lowest level in more than three months at $1,407.30. Spot palladium, which hit a 13-1/2 year high of $900 earlier this week before falling back, was up 1.4% at $875.25 an ounce. (Reuters)

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