Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 22 Sep 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 22 Sep 2014, 09:55 AM

Global

G20 Vows To Boost Global GDP. G20 nations, including the United States and China, said yesterday they can overcome geo-political tensions and financial risks to achieve extra combined growth of 1.8%, adding trillions of dollars to the world economy. In a communique, they said the 1,000 measures agreed so far ― including to accelerate infrastructure investment, financial reform and encourage free trade ― could add 1.8% to GDP and create millions of new jobs. But more reforms were needed to meet the two% goal, agreed in Sydney earlier this year. “Preliminary analysis by IMF-OECD indicates these measures will lift our collective GDP by an additional 1.8% through to 2018,” they said. (AFP)

Malaysia

Higher Growth Forecast. Malaysia has revised upwards its forecast for this year’s growth to between 5.5 and 6.0%, following impressive growth in the first half of the year. Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah said the earlier gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for this year was between 5.0 and 5.5%. “Taking into account the growth figures for the first half of this year, which was 6.3% on average, the government believes that we will be able to achieve higher growth for the whole of 2014. We, therefore, have revised this year’s rate to between 5.5 and 6.0%,” he said after opening the Pasir Salak Umno delegates’ meeting in Kampung Gajah, near here, yesterday. (NST)

Asia Pacific

Japan, China, South Korea Agree To Ensure Geopolitical Risks Don't Threaten Recovery. Financial policymakers of Japan, China and South Korea agreed to work together to ensure that geopolitical tensions will not threaten the region's economic recovery. "We recognize that the global recovery continues, while it is uneven and downside risks remain," the finance ministers and central bank governors said in a statement issued after their first trilateral meeting in more than two years. "We shared the view that we should strengthen our regional capabilities to manage financial and economic risks and respond to possible crisis" through policy dialogue, they said after the meeting, held on the sidelines of the Group of 20 finance leaders' gathering in the Australian city of Cairns. The policymakers agreed to hold the next trilateral meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan, in May 2015. (Reuters)

Japan Government Cuts Economic View, Warns Of Stalling Consumption. Japan's government cut its overall economic assessment for the first time in five months as private consumption is struggling to recover from the slump caused by April's sales tax hike, clouding the outlook for a sustained recovery. The government on Friday cut its view on private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of the economy, saying that consumer spending is seen pausing although a pick-up trend remains intact. (Reuters)

China To Stick To Targeted Easing In Monetary Policy: Premier. China will continue leading a prudent monetary policy with focus on targeted easing measures, Premier Li Keqiang said, according to a statement published on a central government website. Addressing the State Council, China's cabinet, Li said China over the past year had avoided stimulating its economy through quantitative easing. "In the current complex economic situation and the downward pressure, we still have to maintain concentration and adhere to a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy to stabilize market expectations," Li said. (Reuters)

USA

U.S. Leading Indicator Rises Less Than Expected In August. Economic activity in the United States rose less than expected in August, but was still consistent with the economy expanding at a moderate pace for the rest of this year, The Conference Board said on Friday. The research organization's monthly Leading Economic Index inched up 0.2%, after an upwardly revised 1.1% increase in July. Economists polled by Reuters predicted that the index would rise 0.4% after July's earlier reported 0.9% increase. (Reuters)

Europe

Europe Must 'Boost Demand' To Revive Economy, US Warns. The US Treasury Secretary has urged Eurozone countries to "boost demand" in order to reduce unemployment and avoid deflation. Jack Lew was speaking at a meeting of the G20 group, which includes several of the world's largest economies. "Europe is going to need to solve its problems and resolve differences it has internally," Mr Lew told reporters at the meeting in Australia, "but what's clear from the US experience is that the combination of taking action to boost demand in the short run and make structural changes for the long run is an important combination, and it shouldn't become a choice between the two. "You really need to pursue both." (BBC)

German Industry Lobby Cuts Growth Forecast On Crises. Germany's main industry lobby has cut its 2014 growth forecasts for Europe's largest economy, saying the crises in Ukraine, Iraq and the Middle East were creating uncertainty for companies, a newspaper reported on Saturday. Sueddeutsche Zeitung said in its online edition the BDI industry association had reduced its 2014 growth forecast to about 1.5% from a previous 2%. "Companies are feeling the headwinds. Uncertainty is increasing," the paper quoted BDI president Ulrich Grillo as saying. Grillo said sanctions against Russia -although needed - were "really hurting" German companies active there. (Reuters)

France Dodges Rating Downgrade - For Now. Moody's spared France a fresh downgrade of its debt rating on Friday even though Paris has overrun its deficit targets, warning the outlook was negative in light of difficulties pushing through reforms. Moody's kept its rating on French bonds at Aa1, the second-highest level in its scale, saying the size and wealth of the euro zone's second-biggest economy, coupled with its currently ultra-low borrowing costs, justified keeping the rating for now. "Moody's would likely downgrade France's government debt rating if the rating agency's confidence in the government's ability to undertake the necessary fiscal consolidation measures and structural economic reforms were to decline further," it said in a statement. (Reuters)

Currencies

Dollar Posts 10th Straight Week Of Gains On U.S. Rate Outlook. The dollar gained against a basket of major currencies on Friday, posting its 10th consecutive week of gains, as investors bet U.S. interest rates would rise more quickly than had been expected. The dollar index was last at 84.753, up 0.5%, its best daily gain in nearly two weeks. The greenback was up 0.2% at 108.95 yen after scaling a six-year high at 109.45 yen. The dollar has posted gains for three straight weeks. Earlier, sterling jumped to $1.6525, its highest since Sept. 2. It was last down 0.6% at $1.6307. Sterling eased from a twoyear high of 78.10 pence per euro to trade at 78.67. It had also hit a six-year high against the yen before slipping back. (Reuters)

Commodities

U.S. Crude Falls On Worries About Glut, Brent Gains. U.S. crude oil and Brent traded in opposite directions on Friday as a sell-off ahead of Monday's expiration kept U.S. prices down, while discussions of OPEC cutting output put strength into the market overseas. U.S. crude fell 66 cents to settle at $92.41 a barrel while Brent rose 69 cents to settle at $98.39 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Down, Silver At 4-Year Low On Strong Dollar, Equities. Gold fell 0.8% on Friday to its lowest price since January, and silver slumped 3% to a four-year low as the dollar surged on bets that U.S. interest rates could rise sooner than expected. Spot gold was down 0.8% at $1,215.50 an ounce by 2:50 p.m. EDT (1850 GMT). The session low of $1,213.61 was the lowest since Jan. 2. Among other precious metals, silver was down 3.4% to $17.84 an ounce. It touched $17.76, its lowest since August 2010. Platinum dropped 0.9% to $1,331 an ounce and palladium fell 2.1% to $809.46 an ounce. (Reuters)

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