Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 14 Oct 2014

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Publish date: Tue, 14 Oct 2014, 09:27 AM

Malaysia

Government Unveils Full List Of GST-Exempt Items. The Government has unveiled the list of items that are zero-rated and exempted from the Goods and Services Tax (GST), that will come into effect on Apr 1, 2015. There were more than 900 goods and services in the zero-rated list. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak announced the categories of items that would be GST-exempt during his Budget 2015 speech last Friday. In his speech, he said GST would not be imposed on essential services, such as transport, education, healthcare and finance. (The Star)

Asia

China’s Exports Buoy Growth As iPhone Inflates Imports. China’s slowing economy received a shot in the arm from faster export growth in September, with external demand spilling over to boost imports for processing and re-shipment of goods such as the iPhone 6. Exports increased 15.3% from a year earlier, the biggest increase since February 2013 and beating the 12% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Imports rose 7%, against projections for a 2% decline, leaving a trade surplus of about $31b, data from the Beijing-based customs administration today showed. (Bloomberg)

China Sept Vehicle Sales Growth Slowest In 19 Months. China's September auto sales rose 2.5% from a year earlier, its slowest pace in 19 months, dragged down by sluggish sales of commercial vehicles such as trucks, an industry association said on Monday. Vehicles sales totalled 1.98 million units last month, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) told a press conference in Beijing. Passenger vehicle sales rose 6.4% while commercial vehicle sales slumped 16%. During the first nine months of 2014, China's vehicle sales rose 7% from a year earlier. CAAM has forecast that the market will expand 8.3% this year, slowing from last year's 13.9% pace. (Reuters)

China To Scrap Mortgage Fees For Some Home Loans. China will scrap some charges for homebuyers who borrow from a government housing fund, state media said on Monday, as Beijing makes another move to boost the weak property market by reducing costs. The government will exempt notarial, guarantee and mortgage insurance fees as well as valuation charges for new and existing homes that are financed by the government housing provident fund, the state owned Xinhua news agency said on its official Weibo microblog. (Reuters)

India’s CPI Slows More Than Estimated In Boost For Rajan. India’s retail inflation slowed more than economists had estimated after central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan held one of Asia’s highest interest rates for a fourth straight meeting. Consumer prices rose 6.46% in September from a year earlier, the slowest pace since the index was created in January 2012 and compared with 7.73% in August, the Statistics Ministry said in New Delhi yesterday. The median of 42 estimates in a Bloomberg survey had been for a 7.11% gain. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Italy To Cut Taxes By 18b Euros In 2015 Budget: PM Renzi. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said on Monday he would seek tax cuts worth 18b euros ($22.8b) in next year's budget in a bid to stimulate economic growth. About 10b euros would go toward extending a tax cut for low earners that was introduced earlier this year, while 6.5b euros would be set aside to reduce a regional labor tax (IRAP), Renzi said at a meeting of employers' lobby Confindustria in northern Italy that was broadcast on television. The government will also set aside about 1b euros to offer incentives to companies that hire new, full-time employees, and 500 million euros in tax breaks for families, Renzi said. (Reuters)

Italy's Statistics Office Sees Third Quarter Growth Down 0.1%. Italy's economy, the euro zone's third biggest, is likely to shrink by 0.1% in the third quarter, prolonging recession, national statistics office ISTAT said on Monday. For the whole of 2014, the economy will contract 0.3%, in line with the government's forecast, ISTAT's President Giorgio Alleva said during testimony in parliament. (Reuters)

Economic Hardship Worsens For Greeks Despite Easing Recession. More than 20% of Greeks could not afford basic comforts last year, nearly double the number in 2010 when the country's debt crisis exploded, data showed on Monday. In its study of Greek living standards for 2013, statistics agency ELSTAT said it was not just poor people who could no longer afford basic necessities, such as being able to keep their homes warm or pay basic expenses. The study showed that 20.3% of Greeks could not afford at least four out of nine conditions that define economic hardship, including a one-week vacation or eating chicken or meat every other day. (Reuters)

Russia Signs Deals With China To Help Weather Sanctions. Russia and China signed energy, trade and finance agreements on Monday proclaimed by Moscow as proof that a policy turn to Asia is bearing fruit and will help it to weather Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis. The 38 deals, signed on a visit to Moscow by Premier Li Keqiang, allow for deeper cooperation on energy and a currency swap worth 150b yuan ($25b) intended partly to reduce the sway of the U.S. dollar. (Reuters)

Currencies

China, Russia Sign $25b Local Currency Swap. China and Russia have signed a local currency swap worth 150b yuan ($25b) or 815b roubles, the Chinese central bank said in a statement on Monday. The swap is set to last three years and can be extended upon expiry, the central bank said. The announcement came during a three-day visit to Russia by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. (Reuters)

Dollar Weakens. The dollar continued to weaken against its rivals Monday afternoon on a day devoid of major data releases out of Europe and the U.S. The dollar continued to fall against the yen during the North American trading day, trading at 107.12 yen Monday afternoon, compared to ¥107.65 late Friday. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, traded at 85.5150, compared to 85.9120 late Thursday. The pound traded flat against the dollar at $1.6076, compared to $1.6073 late Friday. The euro continued to rise Monday, building on a rally that began last week. It traded at $1.2691, compared to $1.2626 late Friday. Elsewhere, the ruble hit another record low against the dollar, trading at 2.47 cents Monday, compared to 2.48 cents late Friday, as continuing capital outflows and plummeting oil prices continued to plague the Russian economy. (Reuters)

Commodities

Brent Crude Slides To Lowest Since 2010 On Saudi Output Signal. Brent oil prices fell on Monday, tumbling more than $2 a barrel intraday to their lowest since 2010, after key Middle East producers signaled they would keep output high even if that meant lower prices. Brent November crude fell $1.32 to settle at $88.89 a barrel, having slumped to $87.74, the lowest front-month price since December 2010. The intraday low was a contract low ahead of its expiration on Thursday. U.S. crude fell 8 cents to settle at $85.74 a barrel, having recovered from an intraday low of $84.07. (Reuters)

Gold Rises As Dollar Drops; Chinese Data Provides Boost. Gold rose on Monday as the dollar fell on uncertainty about global economic growth, while the prospect of more economic stimulus from China increased bullion's investment appeal. Spot gold rose 0.7% to $1,231.50 an ounce by 2:58 p.m. EDT (1858 GMT) after hitting $1,237.30, its highest in nearly four weeks. Among other precious metals, silver inched up 1 cent to $17.35 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.9% to $1,261.74 an ounce, and palladium gained 0.5% to $783 an ounce. (Reuters)

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