Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 27 Jul 2015

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Publish date: Mon, 27 Jul 2015, 09:26 AM

Global

WTO Members Seal Trillion-Dollar IT Trade Deal. World Trade Organization (WTO) members finalized a deal on Friday to cut tariffs on $1 trillion worth of information technology products in a boost for producers of goods ranging from video games to medical equipment. The agreement adds more than 200 products to the list of goods covered by zero-tariff and duty-free trade. The U.S. Trade Representative said more than $100 billion of U.S. exports would be covered by the updated agreement and estimates showed the removal of tariffs could support up to 60,000 additional jobs. (Reuters)

IMF: U.S. Dollar Rise, Interest Rate Gap Pose Spillover Risks. A further rise in the U.S. dollar as the monetary policy gap between the United States and other major economies widens could have a significant negative impact on other countries, the International Monetary Fund warned on Thursday. Emerging markets' vulnerability was more acute in cases of high gross debt with a high share of foreign currency obligations. The IMF said lower oil prices, more monetary stimulus in the euro zone and Japan and expectations for interest rate rises in the United States and Britain created a "spillover-rich" environment. (Reuters)

 

Malaysia

Leading Index Down 1.2% in May. The Leading Index (LI) showed a decrease of 1.2% in May to 117.2 points from 118.6 points in the previous month. The decline was led by two main components of the index: real imports of other basic precious and other non-ferrous metal (-0.7 %) and a number of new companies registered (-0.6 %). The annual change of the index dropped to -0.2% as against 0.9% in the previous month, said the Statistics Department. The Coincident Index (CI), which measures the current economic activity, also declined by 0.4% in the reference month. (Bernama)

Retrenchment of 10,000 Workers ‘Normal’. The retrenchment of about 10,000 workers in Malaysia in the first six months of this year is a normal situation in a stable and dynamic labour market. Human Resources Minister Datuk Seri Richard Riot said 9,465 people had been terminated from their jobs, including 820 foreign workers, from January to June this year. He said that based on projected GDP growth of 5.8 % during 11MP, it is estimated that the average manpower growth rate is 2.1 % a year which will create about 1.5 million new employment opportunities by 2020. (Bernama)

 

Asia

China PMI Results Dents Hopes of Early Economic Recovery. China's factory sector contracted by the most in 15 months in July as shrinking orders depressed output, a worse-than-expected result. The flash Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 48.2, the lowest reading since April last year and a fifth straight month below 50, the level which separates contraction from expansion. Economists had forecast a reading of 49.7. Output in July was 47.3, its lowest since March 2014. (Reuters)

China to Widen Two-Way Fluctuation in Yuan Exchange Rate. China will widen two-way fluctuation in the yuan exchange rate to support its trade sector, the cabinet said on Friday, the latest efforts by the government to shore up the struggling economy. China will also study the introduction of products to help firms mitigate exchange rate risks. The cabinet also said it would cut import taxes on some daily necessities. (Reuters)

Drought, Poor Policy Could Cost Thailand Top Rice Exporter Title. Thailand is on the verge of losing its crown as the world's largest rice exporter amid a severe drought and in the wake of failed policies, with farmers facing mounting debt. Thailand's rice exports for 2015 are estimated to fall 13% to 9.5 million tons, the nation's Rice Exporters Association said Tuesday, a revision downward from initial predictions. The growth rate for the Thai agricultural sector fell to negative 4.2% in the first half of this year. (Nikkei)

Iran Offers State Assets to Foreigners in Investment Drive. Iran offered to sell state assets to foreigners, said it would cut the government's role in the economy and pledged a tight monetary policy as it sought to attract billions of dollars of investment from abroad after over a decade of isolation. Top Iranian officials outlined an economic policy package designed to win foreign investment. If implemented, they could move Iran's economy well beyond the tight restrictions and heavy state involvement. (Reuters)

 

Americas

U.S. New-Home Sales Hit June Slump. Fewer Americans bought new homes in June, a possible sign that the real estate market might not be as hot as it appeared at the start of summer. The Commerce Department said Friday that new-home sales slumped 6.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 482,000. The report also revised May sales down to a rate of 517,000 from 546,000. The June slowdown indicates the potential limits of the earlier momentum. (AP)

U.S. Factory Activity Inches up in July. Growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector edged up in July after slowing for three months in a row. Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 53.8 in July from a final June reading of 53.6, which was the slowest pace since October 2013. Economists had forecast the July figure would be 53.6. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. (Reuters)

 

Europe

Eurozone PMI Wanes at Start of Second Half. Eurozone business activity started the second half on a less secure footing than expected. Markit's Composite Flash Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 53.7 this month from June's four-year high of 54.2. The headline index has nevertheless now been above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction since mid-2013. The manufacturing export orders index fell to a five-month low of 51.8 in July from 52.7. The business expectations index was at its lowest point this year, plummeting to 61.5 from 63.0. (Reuters)

Greece Loosens Capital Restrictions on Businesses. Greece started loosening restrictions on foreign transfers by businesses on Friday, unblocking imports held up after the country introduced capital controls last month. Businesses have been hit by limits on transferring money abroad to pay for imports of raw material and other items. Central bank governor Yannis Stournaras said the daily limit on money transfers has been raised to 100,000 euros from 50,000 euros. Stournaras said conditions for businesses were improving and authorities aimed to resolve pending issues in the next 10 days. (Reuters)

Greece Prepares to Reopen Stock Market After One-Month Shutdown. Greece is preparing to reopen its stock exchange and allow international investors to take their money out of the country's listed companies after a one-month shutdown. The Greek economy is slowly regaining some semblance of normality after the government secured a 7.2 billion euro bridging loan to pay its debt obligations last week. (Reuters)

 

Currencies

Dollar Edges Up Supported by Weak Overseas Economic Outlook. The U.S. dollar edged up against most other major currencies Friday on data pointing to sluggish overseas economic growth. Recent U.S. economic figures have supported the notion that the Federal Reserve sees the economy as strong enough for it to end its near-zero interest rate policy as early as September, an action that dollar bulls have betting on since last year. In late U.S. trading, the dollar index was up 0.2% at 97.274, reducing its weekly decline to 0.6%. The euro dipped 0.05% to $1.0977, while the dollar dipped 0.1% to 123.71 yen. (Reuters)

Australian Dollar Hits 6-year Low. The Australian dollar sank to a six-year low and other currencies linked to global commodities prices were under pressure on Friday after the weakest reading on sentiment in Chinese manufacturing in more than a year. The Aussie, often used as a liquid proxy for China trades, fell more than 1% to $0.7278 in Europe, after the July survey of purchasing managers (PMI) deepened worries over the world's second-largest economy. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Falls to Lowest Close Since March. Brent and U.S. crude futures settled on Friday at their lowest since March and posted their fourth straight weekly decline as weak economic data from China and a rise in U.S. oil drilling rigs applied pressure. Brent crude fell 65 cents to settle at $54.62 a barrel, the lowest close since March 19 and off 4.3% for the week. U.S. crude fell 31 cents to end at $48.14, its lowest settlement since March 31 and down 5.5% for the week. (Reuters)

Gold Climbs from 5-1/2-year Low as U.S. Stocks Extend Losses. Gold turned higher after sliding more than 1% to its lowest since early 2010 on Friday, as the dollar fell from its highs and U.S. stocks extended losses, but the precious metal was on track to see the biggest weekly decline since March. Spot gold hit the lowest since February 2010 at $1,077.00 an ounce but was up 0.5% at $1,096.29 at 1847 GMT. Silver was down 0.2% at $14.62 an ounce, while palladium was up 1.1% at $621.5o an ounce and platinum up 0.6% at $981.74. (Reuters)

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