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[转帖] 预算案打房 產业股输家

Tan KW
Publish date: Sun, 27 Oct 2013, 09:51 AM
Tan KW
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財经

2013年10月26日

 
 
 
caiyelingyu(吉隆坡26日讯)2014年预算案推出一系列的打房措施,分析员普遍认为,產业领域是这一次预算案主要的输家,专注高档市场的產业股,將面对最大的衝击。

预算案中宣布,將3年內脱售房產的盈利税调涨至30%,同时,也禁止发展商为客户承担利息的计划(DIBS),及將外国人可购买房產的价格底限,从50万提高至100万令吉。

拉昔胡申研究指出,產业领域受预算案的影响最严重,虽然產业领域原本已经预期將会出现一些打房措施。而这些措施,预料也將对依斯甘达特区的產业市场造成衝击。

分析员指出,这些措施可能带来比预期更严重的影响,甚至將拖累银行领域的贷款成长。

MIDF研究分析员则认为,在2014年预算案的措施实施之后,產业价格及销售成长將缓慢下来。不过,购屋自住的需求预料將继续支撑產业领域的成长。

安联研究分析员也相信,產业领域的需求將会受到影响,而近期价格已经大幅走高的依斯甘达特区高楼產业,也將面对风险。

投资者情绪转弱

分析员指出,非住宅產业交易在2015年4月开始將被徵收6%的消费税,也如同在伤口上撒盐,进一步影响商业產业的需求,並可能造成供应过剩的局面。

唯一值得欣慰的是,原本市场预期可能提高印花税的措施,没有实现。

MIDF分析员也指出,在外资购屋热点有高档发展项目的发展商,相信会面对衝击。投资者对產业股的投资情绪也將转弱。

MIDF研究维持对產业领域的中和看法。首选股是IJM置地(IJMLand,5215,主板產业股)及高美达(Glomac,5020,主板產业股),因为,有地產业及可负担產业仍会获得良好的需求。分析员也打算將专注高档產业的依恩奥(E&O,3417,主板產业股)及UEM阳光(UEMS,5148,主板產业股)的评级调降至中和。

安联研究则指出,虽然2014財政预算案对產业领域负面,不过,由於目前產业股的估值偏低,因此,分析员仍维持中和的评级。
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=81428:&Itemid=198

 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 27 of 27 comments

ganasai

other sector also affected not only property. But i still agree policy. So that people buy house is for own living, not for earn money.

2013-10-27 11:27

ganasai

who buy the house and plan for goreng, then congratulation to them.

2013-10-27 11:39

Fortunebull

There are many who already bought several high end condos thinking can sell for profit! Now with much higher RPGT for sure waiting and panicky with huge losses!

2013-10-27 11:41

ganasai

haha, luckily i dont have money goreng property. I just got small money goreng hibiscus only.

2013-10-27 11:43

ganasai

seems like hong kong 90 situation, a lot of people loss everything because goreng property. They hope they can become superman.

2013-10-27 11:50

Fortunebull

Ganasai! Most of these speculators not rich! I think most will bankrupt!

2013-10-27 11:57

ganasai

force to sell, haha. most speculators just borrow money to goreng only. some more borrow from friend or relations to pay the first deposit. Now just bear lah. rent is not simple now. We can foresee the rent market will increase competition. Some more, you may force to simply rent to some bird people, that dont want to pay the rental fee one... really congratulation.

2013-10-27 12:01

Fortunebull

Ya! Most borrow money! Want instant fat profit but get nightmare!

2013-10-27 12:04

bsngpg

Sorry, I have an opposite opinion that the increase on price will albeit slow a bit but it is still on uptrend and those who cannot afford now will still cannot afford to buy the same house then. Why ?

A new condo/apartment takes 3 years to be delivered to buyer. After down payment and progressive interest, the unit is obtained and really for sale with 20% gain tax in year 4 upon Vacant Possession. The increased RPGT from 10%(2013) to 20% in year 4 is not significant to traders. It means only 10% less in profit for seller in 2014 as compared to 2013. Do you think this 10% less in earning is significant to deter the hot trend in property market ? I do not think so. Just like if you have high chance to earn 30% in a counter last year but now it is only 20%, will that stop you to trade that counter ? A trader will not so.

2013-10-27 12:37

KelvinT

Hopeless

2013-10-27 12:38

KelvinT

God bless them

2013-10-27 12:38

bsngpg

Singapore succeeds in pressing down the hot trend of property market by far more and vigorous measures. I bet that the 15-30% on RPGT will not do the job if we get a clue from China and Singapore.

2013-10-27 12:43

ganasai

so optimistic? good! But I' not the one buy the house now, if price still high like that. if still high like that in next year, that more straight policy should be apply right? haha... price stabilising is unavoidable. This is to make sure everyone can afford buy the house.

2013-10-27 12:44

inwest88

bsnpng, it's timely that measures are being implemented to curb speculation in property as house prices are just too high which is beyond the reach of young people. Just imagine even people though earning RM 5,000 a month finds it difficult to own a house costing say about RM 400,000 which is considered the lower-end price in the Klang Valley nowadays.

2013-10-27 12:44

ganasai

developer wont down the price, because they know got goreng kaki sampu the house when launching. So we will force to buy second hand new house. We need to pay for developer earn and also this goreng kaki earn.

2013-10-27 12:48

bsngpg

Hi : I am very confident that the increased RPGT cannot do the job effectively. But please do not get me wrong. In fact I am on your side to curse the too high price on housing.

If I were the government,
i) 70% maximum loan for the 2nd house.
ii) 50% maximum loan for the 3rd house.
iii) 30% maximum loan for 4th house. If you can buy many houses, pay more by yourself lol.
iv) 50% RPGT if your profit is >7% per year within the first 5 years.

I am a bit socialist, ha! ha!

2013-10-27 12:53

inwest88

bsnpng, I would go for

i) 70% maximum loan for the 2nd house.
ii) 40% maximum loan for the 3rd house.
iii) 25% maximum loan for 4th house. If you can buy many houses, pay more by yourself lol.
iv) 50% RPGT if your profit is >7% per year within the first 5 years
v) 60% RPGT if profits exceed 10% per year within the first 5 years

2013-10-27 13:13

bsngpg

Inwest88 : I heard somewhere that in Germany you will be jailed if you make more than 50% profit in trading real estate. To them, house is for your family but not for making profit.

2013-10-27 13:17

inwest88

bsnpng, I am not sure about that but to me I am against excessive speculation. To me stock and property are tow separate issues altogether in that :-
1) when you play stocks with others, both parties know of their stand - either make or lose and play according to theri means
2) in property, those with say 50 K can afford to buy properties costing 500 K. Just by paying 50 K, profits can be as high as 100 K to 200 K before or upon completion (of course depending on location). The prices keep going up until it reaches a stage where, like I say, beyond the reach of a large segment of people. Thus I feel it is not right to deprive these people a roof over their heads.

This is just my opinion. Of course this is a free market and everyone is entitled to make his money as long as it is legal.

2013-10-27 13:25

ganasai

everyone also want the money. But because you want rich, you willing see other people bear huge loan in whole life?

2013-10-27 13:27

KC Loh

bsngpg, your % numbers are a bit excessive. have you not consider some may need to sell their properties, not for speculation basis, but that of emergency and contingency? you have to draw a balance! Its easier said than done with our skewered political views, but do consider the unheard voices also sometimes! :)

2013-10-27 15:02

bsngpg

KC Loh : in this context, I admit that I am a bit unbalance that is why at the end I said I am a bit socialist.

2013-10-27 15:47

bsngpg

KC Loh : The second house means the 2nd unit on hand. The sold unit is not counted anymore.

2013-10-27 15:55

bsngpg

There are many poor families surrounding me including my direct relatives. To them, the only house is for their whole life, some even facing big challenge to pay that only house. If someone is capable for the 2nd house, I believe 30% down payment is not too difficult albeit it may create some financial pressure.

2013-10-27 15:57

kytan

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/my.html visit "People and Society" see the data and forecast what will happen at future house price with
1. http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Malaysia/Price-History HousingAapprovals and Over Supply
2. http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/78471 家債佔系統呆賬率更是在過去數年顯著下跌,從2006年的7.5%大跌至現有的1.4%。
3. http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=81167:170&Itemid=113 with 2% Birth Rate and younger genertion..

I will said another 10 years the price will rocket high again.

2013-10-27 16:27

kytan

price going up is
1. demand and supply issue. 600K single vs average 200K housing. future more single guy and girl not prefer married
2. 72% people move to city to find job
3. land in city less and price is high

2013-10-27 16:38

bsngpg

kytan : Put social moral aside and back to investment case. Wow! If housing prospect is so good for the next 10 years, my heaviest invested Mahsing will be RM6 in few years later. Wa “Jia Bei Liau” loh.

2013-10-27 16:40

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