Good Articles to Share
[转贴] 恒源 HENGYUAN - 个人观点 - RH Research
恒源 HENGYUAN - 个人观点
Q3业绩重点
> Q3销售量额外提升0.6m桶油
> Q3平均销售价USD63.5/桶，高于去年USD48.8
> Q3库存收益USD2.64/桶，高于去年USD0.76，以及Q2的USD1.71亏损
> 累积9个月平均炼油赚幅大约USD8/桶
> 受惠于墨西哥湾飓风以及欧洲大型炼油厂的火灾事故
> 展望 - 根据市场的期货价格和炼油赚幅，炼油赚幅在短期内预计走低
> 外汇收益 – RM49.5m，期货收益 – RM3.2m
> 每股净资产 从Q2的RM4.41提升至目前的RM5.53 (+RM1.12)
> FY17至今创造RM737m营运现金，目前还有RM1.3b债务，手持RM898m现金
> 由于构建主要设备的时间长于预期， Euro4M Mogas项目的完工日期将被延迟 (原本日期 – 1H18)
> 继续为明年Q3进行的重大维修工程做准备，预计耗时2.5个月的时间。因此，FY18的生产活动及销售将下滑
> 依然还没支付任何税务，相信在明年Q1就必须开始缴付
目前，Brent原油价格企稳在每桶USD60以上，而Mogas 92炼油赚幅也徘徊于每桶USD10左右。如无意外，HY的Q4盈利可至少介于RM200-300m之间。
保守估计，假设HY可在全年交出RM800m税前盈利，在缴付24%税务之后，其税后盈利将会是RM608m，相等于每股RM2.03盈利。再以8倍PE推算，HY的每股潜在价值是RM16.21。
随着美国参议院税改投票通过，以及OPEC同意延长原油减产协议至2018年底，之前保持谨慎而不敢轻举妄动的投资者有望重新进入市场。本专页预计HY可至少在周一攀升至RM11水平。
#HENGYUAN
纯属分享！
https://www.facebook.com/rhresearch/posts/1754635044548107
Related Stocks
| Chart | Stock Name | Last | Change | Volume |
|---|
More articles on Good Articles to Share
Canada is looking at EV tariff policy after Biden’s move against China
Created by Tan KW | May 18, 2024
Fifty dead in heavy rain, floods in central Afghanistan, official says
Created by Tan KW | May 18, 2024
Crypto lender Genesis to return US$3b to customers in bankruptcy wind-down
Created by Tan KW | May 18, 2024
Peru protesters slam new insurance law that deems transgender people mentally ill
Created by Tan KW | May 18, 2024
Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 11 of 11 comments
no need to be so bullish,
Lets say EPS Q4 is just 0.80, Full yr EPS will be 3.20
P/E apply only 7, TP-22.40
EPS Q4=0.60, EPS full yr 3.02, P/E 7=21.14
EPS Q4=0.50, EPS full yr 2.92, P/E 7=20.44
any low only EPS, and P/E, still the price target is near RM20,
Thts 78.5%!!!!!
2017-12-07 14:06
27%-28% tax rate will be more safer, they will be a lot unallowable expenses.
PBT RM 800mil
PAT RM 576mil
EPS RM 1.92
P/E 8 (Petronm)
TP RM 15 (in 3 months maybe, but not now)
Uncertainty,
1.Brent oil price 61.39
2.Crack spread movement
2017-12-07 14:12
OTB sir, yes, should apply 8x to HENGYUAN. Market will give 8x p/e ratio to HENGYUAN gradually in next year, I think.
2017-12-07 14:19
All syiok sendiri. China discovered the largest oil reserve recently. China is not going to import anymore. Instead, China will export.
2017-12-07 14:26
Further more, Hengyuan has been delaying to upgrade it's refinery as lack of capital. The deadline given by our Gov is riped within 9 months time. Wait and see!
2017-12-07 14:28
Post a Comment
Featured Posts
Apps
Top Articles
1
AnimatedMotion
2
The Alpha Trader
3
5
THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
6
THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
7
BFM Podcast
8
AmInvest Research Reports
#
Stock
Score
Daily Stocks
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Featured Advertisers / Partners
Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Ooi Teik Bee
Please note that there is an unabsorbed tax credit of RM 1.1 billion, hence FY 2017, there is no such tax of 24%.
FY 2017 EPS cannot be 2.03. Presently for 3 quarters, EPS is already 2.41. I expect Q4 2017 EPS to be 1.00. Full year EPS for 2017 is 3.41.
PER = 8, target price is 27.28.
Please check again your calculation.
Thank you.
Ooi
2017-12-07 13:31