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[转贴] 人民币变致命核弹? 他惊爆3大危险

Tan KW
Publish date: Sun, 01 Sep 2019, 10:50 PM
Tan KW
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尽管人民币近期跌跌不休,但瑞银认为,中国不会将人民币武器化。(网络图)

在中美贸易战急巷遽升温之际,人民币贬势不断扩大,似乎成为报复美国关税的工具之一。但外资认为,美国对中国商品加征关税,恐对中国经济前景造成冲击,因此,北京政府应会确保人民币跌幅受控制,而不会直接把人民币当作武器,以免弄巧成拙。

人民币近期跌跌不休,让市场忧心贸易战恐演变成货币战,27日在岸人民币一度贬至 7.173元,连续 9 个交易日走贬,创下2008年以来新低汇价,而人行周二设定人民币中间价也比预期强劲,所幸,之后两个交易日跌幅稍收敛,引发外界联想人行可能试图稳住汇价的臆测。

瑞银分析师发布最新报告指出,美国大打关税战恐进一步扼杀中国经济,甚至促贬人民币,但北京仍会确保人民币跌幅有限、并受控制,避免沦为贸易战武器之一,其背后有三大理由:

一、人民币大幅走贬可能激怒白宫。

8 月初,人民币兑美元贬破7.0大关时,美国财政部立即将中国贴上“汇率操纵国”标签。中国在近期贸易升级后呼吁进行“平静谈判”,因此,不大可能采取货币币政使人民币武器化。

二、货币贬值可能对中国带来负面影响。

过去人民币走贬都造成资本外流,陆方为防范2015、2016资金外逃事件重演,不会大动作压低人民币汇价。周二人民币中间价超出市场预期,看来人行似乎试图放慢贬值步伐。

三、美元兑人民币交易属于双边事务。

中美贸易紧张情势升温,美联储可能会以更宽松的货币政策以减缓美元兑人民币的上涨空间;而美国若继续提高关税,中方恐会发现人民币设定具体目标将适得其反。

瑞银表示,人民币的走势将持续下探,除非中美贸易关系有大幅改善。分析师预期,未来6个月美元兑人民币汇率将跌至7.4,未来12个月将贬至7.3。

新闻来源:中时电子报

 

https://www.enanyang.my/news/20190901/人民币变致命核弹?-br他惊爆3大危险/
Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 3 of 3 comments

ks55

US dollar too strong, that make many countries currency appear to be undervalue.
US dollar index rises from 72.5 in 2011 to 98.8 is 36.3% increase, whereas RMB to USD came down from 6.2 in 2011 to 7.16, only depreciated 15.5%.

Look at US Dollar Index chart, I believe RMB is best value at 8.2 to a dollar.

https://finance.yahoo.com/currency-converter

2019-09-02 14:40

ks55

If Donald Dick thinks it is not fair for so many countries to have their currencies 'manipulated' and 'taking advantage' on US, hence 'robbed' US 500 to 600 billion dollars every year, he should initiate Operation Overlord to overload world economy with more trillions of US fiat dollar.

If he can press down 1 USD to 1 RMB, he would have saved not only US economy, but poorest countries Like Zimbabwe or Somalia....

Pray hard one day 1 ringgit can exchange for 2 US dollar.
Then our GDP will appreciate 8 times overnight...........

2019-09-02 14:53

ks55

It was because Donald Dick and his lieutenants press down Malaysian Ringgit from 2.30 to 4.10, effectively they have robbed you and me 78% of our wealth, I will forever not forgive these robbers who portray themselves as Santa Claus to the Third World like Malaysia.........

2019-09-02 14:59

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