kiasutrader1
Is investing all about Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis alone?
kiasutrader1
Publish date: Tue, 16 Jun 2015, 06:42 PM
kiasutrader1
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A forum to encourage intelligent discussion using Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis and Entrepreneurial skills.
Participants must "Agree to Disagree" and any sharing here should not be treated as a "life or death" issue. Those with big egos who cannot be wrong please do not post here.
We provide Metastock Software at discounted prices for those who register at www.kiasutrader.com and our email is kiasutrader@gmail.com
Participants must "Agree to Disagree" and any sharing here should not be treated as a "life or death" issue. Those with big egos who cannot be wrong please do not post here.
We provide Metastock Software at discounted prices for those who register at www.kiasutrader.com and our email is kiasutrader@gmail.com
Recently we at Kiasutrader (www.kiasutrader.com) have been thinking about what investing is all about. There is so much talk about using Fundamental Analysis (FA), Technical Analysis (TA) and of course the use of reliable tips to invest one's hard earned money in the markets. We will not discuss the use of "tips" here as that alone can be a very big topic which we have much to speak about.
Given this scenario, we felt compelled to write this article on the use of FA, TA and we add here, what we call, "The Entrepreneurial Way of Investing".
Fundamental Analysis
Is it just a matter of being very intelligent about how to use Fundamental Analysis (FA), ie using the well used financial ratios ROE, ROA, EV, EBITDA, Interest Cover,Discounted Cashflow Models (DCF), and other stuff taught to me by my University Professors who have long since brought their knowledge to their graves and a new breed of Professors are now fine tuning their work?. For myself, as I look at my old text books with all the Greek notations, I just wonder how I managed to understand all that and even applied it in my thesis during my younger days. Having obtained 3 degrees, 2 in Economcis ( BA (Hons) and Masters) and MBA, I believe I am qualified to speak about what I have learnt.
Stuff like the Efficient Market Hypothesis (see http://www.investopedia.
The concept of Perfect Competition is still taught at Economics 101, where prices can never rise beyond what is the "known" level seems to be closer to being achieved these days as a result of the vast information available in the internet and one have to work very hard indeed to sell a similar product more expensive than its competitor. Yet there are pockets of opportunities afforded to the shrewd Investor who know what is going on with all the "noise" around.
Today, the "noise" is how bad the Greece situation is and when the FED is going to a raise interest rates. The smart Analysts in town are all thinking that we are heading for "doom and gloom" (Group Think, see below), and the market seems to agree with it wholesale without question.
This is akin to the well known phenomena called "Group Think" (picture above and refer to https://en.wikipedia.org/?title=Groupthink). This is the main reason why the 35th President of the United States, John F Kennedy failed in the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba, 17 April 1961.
This is where FA about the whole market will lead us. It is telling you the obvious and it is also very convincing as well because it appeals to our sense of safety as there seems to be "proof" and very "scientific" in its conclusions. The sense of security in some intellectual process leads one to think that non conformity is a "sin" and makes one look like an idiot. Dissenting voices are "shouted" down while the consensus seems the most intelligent way to go ahead.
There is nothing wrong with using FA together with tools from corporate finance in determining the "value" of a stock. But many may have been misled to think that this is the only way to go in valuing a stock and numbers spewed out by the methods are God given and accurate.
Realise that past track record that most FA base themselves on, is only a guide to the future of what the management of a company can or cannot do. There are loads of "turn-around" cases in the technology sector of Bursa Malaysia for us to know that based on past track record, these companies should have been de-listed. Bankers are well known practioners of this arcane art of lending money to their Clients.
Such skills are best used in an environment where it is a steady state, where change is not dynamic or no change at all will happen. Of course that will mean that society is living in a box with no outside influences allowed like China after the glorious years of adventure in the Ming Dynasty where the voyages of Cheng Ho (Zheng He) were curtailed and China retreated into a shell. In today's world, one should be aware that it is not like what it was before, we are all living in a global village. Competition can arise thru the use of new tools like APPS in the Smart Phones. To survive in the "new world" do not be bound by old world thinking.
FA can also lead us to not think outside the box. See my comment below :
""It seems to me that when things are bad, people will continually speak "intelligently" and say it will be worse. That is why people cannot make money because they follow the crowd. Think out of the Box! If property is down, then squeeze the best deal! If the stock market is down, seek out the best stocks! Why follow the crowd and get depressed? That goes the same when everyone is bullish! Be a critical thinker, not a follower"
We first wrote the above quote in our email to our Kiasutrader Members on Jan 21, 2015 (those who want the email can request by writing to us at kiasutrader@gmail.com) and it had been proven right everytime the market falls.
This does not mean that FA should be "debunked", far from it. One must realise that behind all the "smart" talk there are limitations and a realisation of the limitations will make one humble and accept that it is not a fool-proof way to invest.
Conclusion : FA is important but be intelligent in how you use it.
Technical Analysis (TA)
I bought my first technical analysis book in 1988 and being "lazy" I did not bother to get the daily data from the newspapers or get the data from sources to draw my own charts using pen and paper. That is certainly a lost opportunity that I regret.
Some of the brightest minds in the investment business like Peter Lynch, John Neff, Benjamin Graham, Philip Fisher and Warren Buffet do not "time" the market which is the strength of TA. One must realise that these "gurus" are medium to long term Investors who believe that their evaluation of a stock is fundamentally sound and value not appreciated by the market, allowing them to buy when everyone is selling. Their calculation of "value" allows them to buy even when the stock is rapidly heading south with no end in sight.
It is opined that in today's environment, a sound understanding of TA is extremely important especially when one want to trade. This is especially important with regards to the speculative stocks. Suffice to say that in the 1997/98 crisis, many Retailers were "burnt" beyond recognition as they traded on news and hot tips ( many a time when the Operator is selling and passing news around ) from the "horse's mouth" on speculative counters. If one is old enough, one will remember that prices of stocks and shares can easily go up 20% in a day with Punters in the Galleries packed to the brim and clapping, cheering and laughing loudly as their favourite stocks go up and up with no gravity holding them back. One can say that it is as though they are in a stadium urging their favourite team on.
There is the view that only TA matters and FA is not important anymore. While there is always some proof to this, one must realise that like FA, TA have its own limitations. The main weakness is interpretation. There are various chart patterns that are supposed to mean that one should Buy and/or one should Sell. Some practioners see "Cup and Handle patterns", "Flags", "Pennants", "Ascending and Descending Triangles", while some do not. Similarly an overbought or oversold situation can remain so for weeks on end. Volume which is a very important element in any chart reading is often ignored in Candlestick analysis while the use of popular Bollinger Bands which so beautifully chart the upper and lower limits as a stock move in an upward or downward pattern has also been proved to be unreliable especially when one want to use it for forecasting where the price is heading.
The fault lies with Retail Investors who, having just scant knowledge of TA, picked up from the internet and only going for free investment talks, apply techniques that they are least able to fathom and then blame the Speaker who told them to "Buy High to go Higher" or buy at "Support" and sell at "Resistance" without really understanding what these terms mean in totality.
The best TA practioner in the world does not make money all the time. Yet it is often presented at Investment Talks that a certain software or method will gurantee success 100% of the time. Realise that success in TA is all based on probability of whether "Event A" or "Event B" will happen. Many fail to understand that and think that TA will give them a"leg up" on the markets regardless. As mentioned above, the market is dynamic, not static and past results are best used as a guide to what the future will bring. It is no guarantee that just because a stock is "Overbought", it is due to fall and vice versa for "Oversold" counters. Also realise that some software are best used for trending stocks (those that rise and fall dramatically) while some are more for trading stocks (those that operate in a trading band). All these are not appreciated by Retailers who are newbies in TA and like what is often said, "like lambs led to the slaughter" they lose what money they have.
We at Kiasutrader (www.kiasutrader.com, email : kiasutrader@gmail.com) are a licenced reseller of Metastock, the trading software that had been around since 1985 and won PC Magazine's Editors' Choice Award and the Readers' Choice Award from Stocks & Commodities Magazine for over 20 consecutive years.. The software is being improved almost every year to help Traders and Investors to trade better. We do not make claims that you will make money all the time, but we do help you to understand the markets better and guide you on how to use some of the in-built software that gives buy and sell signals optimally.
Conclusion : TA is important but only those who are well versed in its applications should rely on it to trade successfully especially with regards to speculative counters. Note that no software can cover all market situations and relying totally on someone else's interpretation (eg those with built in buy and sell signals) of what is happening using TA tools is not wise as interpretations abound.
Are you an entrepreneur inside?
If you are investing your money in some company or thinking of starting a business, are you not risking your funds? If you are an entrepreneur, you will have, in order to be successful, checked the market, its players, ie the Buyers, Sellers, competion within the market, the size of the market, costs of production, profit margins and potential growth rates of the business you want to put your money into. If you are partnering with others who may need your funds, you will also do a background check of the people who will be your partners to make sure that they are not unscrupulous business people who will not think twice to cheat you, rather they have solid reputations and can be trusted to run the business properly.
Remember when you buy stocks and shares in a public listed company you are indirectly "partnering" with the major shareholders in the business, make no mistake about that. The stock market is only a means of allowing you to enter and exit easily unlike a private business, that is all.
This entrepreneurial approach to investing is often missed by the investing community because it takes a lot of hard work to check out the business of a company before investing in its stocks and shares. The mere reading of its financial statements is not enough and just because it is in the high growth technology sector does not mean that it is a guaranteed success (re : dot com boom in 2000).
On the other hand, going behind the financial statements and asking the right questions can lead one to a better understanding of what is going on in the industry. Some of the questions you may want to ask may be, is the company showing great results this year because of certain accounting entries that cannot be repeated next year which is quite common. There is also the aspect of whether the company that is doing well now may be in a sunset industry and management appears oblivious to the declining trends in the industry. Other questions like, "is their patent (if any) expiring soon?" also comes to the fore. These are but a multitute if questions that you can ask. Know that the Analysts employed by the broking houses can also be led to write great things about the company and one with industrial experience will know more than the highly qualified Analyst who come with a string of degrees.
Currently there is a lot of talk that semiconductor companies involved in the export led industries are bound to do well but did you check out which area of the semiconductor industry that they are in? Is the news about their business prospects already "factored" in? Is the company a pure semiconductor player in a high growth area (like those involved in mobile devices that is growing by leaps and bounds) or just a manufacturer or mundane chips?
The person who can separate the "wheat from the chaff" will certainly be able to find Value companies whose shares are not appreciated by the market and getting dumped together with the rest in a panic striken market like what is happening now.
Also do we use our experiences to invest? For example, is it easy to get a bank loan to buy a property now? Are the Banks "turning over" their funds" fast enough to generate profits or are they always stuck in red tape, taking longer and longer to approve loans or are they rumoured to be involved in a mega loan that cannot be recovered? Bank profits will be affected by all these things.
Are the malls all doing well? Are you getting unsolicited SMS and messages offering you discounts to buy properties? Do we see retailers closing their shops at the shopping malls? When we go to the well known restuarants or for example, your favourite Starbucks store, do we see huge crowds like before after the imposition of GST?
Do you yourself now adjust your spending habits and more choosy where you eat (eg choosing a restaurant where there is no GST and Service charge)? Who own these outlets that are doing badly now? These are practical ways that you live your life and hence when you invest in a company in a given sector, you should use these experiences and observations to know whether they will do better this year than next year.
Conclusion : Use your God given 5 senses to Invest your hard earned money and have a logical process in coming to a conclusion
What we need to do is to combine our understanding of the 3 areas mentioned herein if one want to be a successful investor. This of course is a guide and one should not use this as a God given menu list. There are lots more that can be added to what is said here and we welcome well thought out comments and remarks here as well as individual emails to us at kiasutrader@gmail.com or you can visit our website at www.kiasutrader.com to contact us.
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Discussions
6 people like this. Showing 50 of 54 comments
That is another big area where emotional trading has caused many to fail. May write about it another time, including why TIPS may or may not make you rich...
2015-06-17 10:49
Dear Respected kiasutrader1,
Thanks for your kind sharing! What an amazing article! SALUTE and RESPECT!
This afternoon I already bookmarked this article and set it as my No.1 must-do task before I end my day. While having my dinner I read through your article. Slowly go through your article, word by word, sentence by sentence for three round just to make sure I don't miss out any important notes.
"while most of the forum users busy with the discussion of should TA or FA comes first, which is the best analysis tool, how to earn big from TA, FA or FTA etc you presented to us the crucial part of the [FA & TA application skills]. Personally, I like very much your article because you tell us how practical and impractical the tools are. Somehow, I do not get much of the Entrepreneurship part(hope you can explain more in future).
Good that you share with us about the psychological responses of share "players" from your observation.
I am sure I will closely waiting for your next article. Sorry if I could request to publish
1) What should we do when TA contradict with the FA findings for short term analysis since more n more CLOUD BUSINESS or E-Comm counters to be listed in stock exchange (problem here is TA ask to attack while FA ask to wait)
2) What is the ROBUST way to read our market when KLCI(30 components) is not usable to reflect the entire market movement
3) The missing part of the linkage of FINANCIAL FIGURES and ECONOMICAL CHANGE because it would be great to learn from you how to integrate these two scopes since Economy will influential the Finance figures after certain period. Hope your experience and MBA thoughts can enlighten us
4) If given a chance to raise my request, I will continue to write:::
Indeed this is the best "Agree to disagree" article from i3 till present(at least it sounds for me).
No other word but it serves the mind-opener for newbie like me.
Again, thanks for your wonderful time to give us a free public lecture.
Warmest regards,
your follower duit
2015-06-17 20:26
Dear duitKWSPkita
Let me go thru your comments one by one :
1) What should we do when TA contradict with the FA findings for short term analysis since more n more CLOUD BUSINESS or E-Comm counters to be listed in stock exchange (problem here is TA ask to attack while FA ask to wait)
COMMENT
This is common - it depends on what stocks you are looking at and what is your investment time frame. I personally have invested in penny stocks when my interpretation of TA on the charts show that entry is possible as the probability of the share going up is higher than the share coming down. Note that this is mainly for short term profits. In this respect, there is hardly any FA involved - eg of shares I have personally invested in are Pasukhas, Asia Bio & KTB where the FA or business process of the companies will not have qualified as an investment. Of course, I may get it wrong and that is when I have to quickly get out admitting I am wrong.
2) What is the ROBUST way to read our market when KLCI(30 components) is not usable to reflect the entire market movement.
COMMENT
The KLCI is just a guide to the health of the market . What is missing which is much spoken about is the Breadth of the market – ie how many stocks up, down and sideways and volume. That is more crucial. The KLCI does in a way influence the sentiment but if you know the companies that you have invested in after applying the 3 techniques mentioned, will you be worried? You will look at it as an opportunity to BUY not SELL the stocks you have in your hand.
But if you are only having speculative counters, then you will be extremely worried indeed. You just have to be careful of your own stocks. I have said this before to my Kiasutrader community (www.kiasutrader.com), not to be worried about the market, but be worried about the shares you own - are they solid, can they withstand the sudden loss of confidence in the market? Can they bounce back? Normally those stocks with good fundamentals can bounce back, not the speculative ones.
2015-06-18 00:00
Continuation
3) The missing part of the linkage of FINANCIAL FIGURES and ECONOMICAL CHANGE because it would be great to learn from you how to integrate these two scopes since Economy will influential the Finance figures after certain period. Hope your experience and MBA thoughts can enlighten us
COMMENT
The Economy is the overall picture. If the economy is bad, how can companies that are affected by the consumers’ change of spending habits do well? Obviously their financials will be affected. If they were doing well over the last 5 years, it does not mean that such stocks will do well in future. Hence it is time to look into selling these stocks.
Oil & Gas counters are being affected by the turmoil in the global markets but their 5 year EPS and 5 year revenue growth rates may show scintillating results. Will you go and blindly buy them, thinking that the norm will continue forever?
Just some thoughts here :
Consumers who are wage earners will not be able to spend luxuriously. Hence one must ask, what kind of goods will they buy? Will they buy more gold ornaments, will they go for expensive holidays? What counters will be able to withstand the economic downturn?
With these questions in mind, we go and look at the market. I will say that most likely those that have business that are, recession proof will continue to do well. They are not exciting businesses but ones that will not do badly even if the Ringgit go to RM6 to USD1. Example : One of the most recession proof business is the bereavement business (Funeral). Unfortunately, if I am not wrong that company had been delisted as the founders found that the local market did not appreciate the company’s value.
Also companies that sell basic food products that are needed like Nestle. in Indonesia Nestle sell coffee saches and food packages like maggie mee individually so that the poor folks there buy just for the day's meal, not like here where we buy enough to stock up for 1 month! The profit of each packet is so high that it is a sin!
Medical service providers is another good example. As the Government hospitals get more and more crowded and people in general have health or medical insurance, they will go to the private hospitals. So I believe that private hospital business will continue to grow.
Motor vehicles - in Malaysia, without a car, you are in trouble. Most of the population will be able to afford a Myvi which is perceived to be better than a Proton. So that is another area to look at. Of course there are also challenges in this industry that one must be aware of.
These are just some areas. Note that we are not living in a coconut shell, business is global and also there are loads of foreign investors in our market. If they leave, what counters will be affected? Air Asia is a good example. If you do some homework, you will know which companies have a lot of foreign shareholding and you will want to avoid those companies.
2015-06-18 00:02
Aiyo tired of guessing ...got answer or not?
Use SA better....Sunkist analysis
2015-06-18 00:14
The two FA & TA have go hand in hand. See Airasia if based on FA alone? TA already shows danger sell sign when it dropped below 50MA and series of negative candles. Same as IFCA.
2015-06-18 00:23
Kiasutrader1: Thank you very much for reply. Noted n agreed with your remarks...
Sunkist118: GA is Gut Analysis mean how big it gut to bet like no tomorrow.
Ops ti Mia bro: I prefer Psychology Analysis, love 股市厚黑学。。。you eat me, I eat you. I believe that market is a place for smart person to con fool money. We can't deny it only thing is we open mouth and eat. Those talk very big one TALK ONLY MA. How many in this forum got chance to handle billion project or fund or business. Mostly 骗神骗鬼吗。。。。
2015-06-18 00:27
See Icon bro. Lu Kasi cucuk Ops undertaker.
Later he can't sleep n dig out all old 往事 then how? Cham Liao lo... No need sleep Liao lo.....
He has great memory to link up everything. Envy his memory lo. Almost time, people and location all ingat lo. Really a genius.
2015-06-18 11:23
Oh my god optimouse is correct, Duit lets throw a big party for your 10,000 posts !!!!
2015-06-18 11:24
fortunebullz, Duit is going to hit 10,000th posts soon !!! Oh my god, Duit don't move !!! You must say something meaningful that commensurate with your 10,000th posts !!!
2015-06-18 00:29
Get mad Liao... My IT guy resigned and join IFCACCC for GST project. So no one resolve my server... Stuck there like proton saga car metre.
But sometimes when KLCI drop my total posts also drop n when KLCI up it reacts àccordingly. Really dunno how to fix this problem... I am sad when everyone laugh at me on my overdue problem.
Sadddd
2015-06-09 11:32
Icon, fortune n ops...
I hav tried my best. But IT really not my department I dunno how to fix the IT algorithm problem.
Hope I can get nice IT gal to help me. I also wanna hit 10k ma when possible.... 10k club got privilege, can open another 5 new accounts... Good also...
Hei opssss. Lu Ada excel control all macam macm account ka? Kalau no excel I BET RM5 satu hari Lu sendiri lupa user n password.
4 days ago
See ? Fortunebullz I always say you should stop attaching "my bro" to his name
He is not your "bro"
2015-06-18 00:59
Mine one only rm1k kancil hor compared to lambogini hor. Kancil slow so I folloo lambo better, I use care plus help because hor my kancil like Mickey mouse hor on steroid, body big big engine small small. Now hor after using care plus my kancil hor cannot move d body big big only. So learn hor care plus help not for all car.
Posted by Optimusprimier > Jun 18, 2015 01:01 AM | Report Abuse
gua pakai supercomputer la, not your ordinary type of laptop.
gua punya computer harga serupa lambogini la.
2015-06-18 08:35
We all here for money
Optimouse is here to fish for fame and respect
Stupid
2015-06-18 08:54
Good or no good, I think OTB's bank balance has increased by many millions RM these 3 years...could be more than what he earned in the past many years...
2015-06-18 08:56
right mr OTB. lets share knowledge, compassion and love.. I believe articles like this really help me and my fellow newbie. thank you for the hard work.
2015-06-18 09:07
Agreed with Mr OTB that a person who is good will not tell lies and attack people to say he is very good. That is a universal principle that I subscribe to.
But just wondering the relevance of this statement to what I posted here. Kindly explain.
After all, I did say that I created this forum for intelligent discussion and any disagreement to what I proffer here is most welcomed as no one stops learning and I have said that I agree to disagree.
2015-06-18 09:57
macam betul tapi tak berapa faham, talk like expert but nothing new to learn
why nowadays, people like to beat around the bush, why they just can not put the fact across directly, yet there are still many say good writing
please lah...
please speak like LKY, do not make simple fact difficult, what you want is everybody can understand what you want to say
OTB is good, at least we understand what he says , what he wants
KC also good , we understand his theory
kiasutrader, please improve your presentation.
sorry to have been spoken that frankly here
2015-06-18 11:43
pisanggoreng,Thank you for your frank comments. I have no problem with your comments. If you have nothing new to learn, it is ok with me.
2015-06-18 11:51
I am doing a test, how it is true , when one said he can accept the difference.
I am glad to hear you are ok.
2015-06-18 13:22
Life is short, do not be uptight when someone disagree with you. They have reasons best known to them and if anyone disagree with others, that person should be prepared to give good logical reasons for the view. That shows you are a matured, thinking person who can give good logical reasons behind your views.
We all learn together and get better, that should be the aim of life but if you get emotional over what others say about your views, then you should go and learn to Agree to Disagree.
2015-06-18 14:04
kiasutrader,
1. Using TA to buy speculative stocks.... how successful is this approach. Can you show consistent above average performance every year for stocks in this bucket ? I am curious.
2. Why not write up about some stocks that meet your criteria in terms of TA,FA and Entrepreneurial to share in i3. At least we can see some examples of your criteria put in practice and how they perform over time.
Thanks for the article.
2015-06-18 14:26
kiasutrader1 -- a very good write up and and a even better comments from a humble, learned investor.
I am fully agree with what you have put up. Good work.
Really appreaciate your effort and a big TQ.
I seldom praise people, only you and kcchongnz earn my respect.........
2015-06-18 14:50
NOBY,
Thank you for your comment no. 2
I said above : "Also do we use our experiences to invest?"
Last year I was admitted into a KPJ hospital on 25 March 2014, discharged on 26 Mar 2015 as I was quite sick on 25 March 2014. I had to wait 3 hours or more in the emergency room before I was allocated a room because they told me the hospital is full and I have to wait as someone was checking out later that day. As I waited in the Emergency room, I saw that it was full and people did not even have a place to sit.
This shows that it is a very good business that is "printing" money for its Investors. A good businessman will want to get into such a business.
I have never invested in KPJ shares before and later after I was discharged, I had a look at the KPJ chart and was amazed that it was falling like a "Waterfall". I was wondering why, is it because they have some very bad results because of bad management or did something crazy?
On checking, I found out that Analysts were writing bad things about them because they took a lot of loans to build new hospitals in Rawang, etc, causing the usual financial guidelines to appear to be bad. This I cannot understand why a company that is taking loans to grow its business is treated as a bad thing. If it took loans to buy luxurious cars and villas, I can understand. If the financials are bad, then it should only be temporary.
If one check the charts, one can see that a base was formed at the RM2.99/3.00 level between 26/3 to 8/4 and volume increased from 01 April 2014 with the share price, not able to fall further. This gave a good signal that strong support is present and the share "should" rise from there. From 9/4 onwards the share rose and never looked back, reaching RM4.42 on 8 June 15.
That is using your 5 senses to invest together with understanding TA. FA is important but at that stage I felt that the growth prospects of the company is far more evident than short term financial numbers.
2015-06-18 15:56
Thanks. Looks like you are more of a scuttle butt type of investor like Phil Fisher. Yes, sometimes the best time to buy is when the company is undergoing a rough patch or investors sell down due to some one-off negative event.
2015-06-18 17:42
NOBY,
Sometimes, there are opportunities I buy when I see the stock cannot go down anymore. I am more of a range trader between support and resistance as I am "kiasu". Currently the market is sideways and I am looking for opportunities like that but now because of the headwinds of our economy and USD interest rate normalisation, I got to be more careful as support may not hold
2015-06-18 17:51
Apologies, my KPJ check out date was 26 Mar 2015 not 2015..1 day stay not 1 year!
2015-06-18 18:20
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2015-06-17 10:44