Koon Yew Yin's Blog
3 ways to evaluate Plantation Stocks - Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Mon, 25 Apr 2022, 12:58 PM
Koon Yew Yin
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An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
The best way to compare plantation stocks is to total up the FFB production for the last 3 months for each company and divided by its Market capitalisation. The reason is that all the plantation companies will have to report their profit for the quarter ending March before the end of May. Due the record high CPO price all the planation companies will report increased profit. Which will report the best profit in comparison with its market capitalisation?
|
Name |
FFB in last 3 months Tons |
Total 3 months |
Market Cap Rm million |
3 months FFB ÷ Market Cap |
|
Subur Tiasa |
18,295 |
|
|
|
|
|
22,857 |
70,132 |
483 |
145.2 |
|
|
28,980 |
|
|
|
|
Jaya Tiasa |
55,365 |
|
|
|
|
|
43,722 |
151,243 |
1,091 |
138.6 |
|
|
52,158 |
|
|
|
|
MHC |
10,035 |
|
|
|
|
|
9,005 |
29,138 |
259 |
114.4 |
|
|
10,599 |
|
|
|
|
SOP |
76,725 |
|
|
|
|
|
88,787 |
267,790 |
3,695 |
72.5 |
|
|
102,278 |
|
|
|
|
Sarawak Plant |
19,126 |
|
|
|
|
|
20,038 |
64,382 |
823 |
78.2 |
|
|
25,218 |
|
|
|
|
Cepatwawasa |
6,982 |
|
|
|
|
|
6,717 |
23,074 |
375 |
64.6 |
|
|
9,375 |
|
|
|
|
Hap Seng |
43,563 |
|
|
|
|
|
40,628 |
136,378 |
2,560 |
53.3 |
|
|
52,187 |
|
|
|
|
Ta Ann |
45,505 |
|
|
|
|
|
39,498 |
123,367 |
2,740 |
48.3 |
|
|
47,364 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subur Tiasa , Jaya Tiasa and Ta Ann also produce sawn timber, ply wood and wood chip boards.
Comparison based on historical PE
|
Name |
Price Rm |
Latest EPS |
Latest EPS X4 |
Price ÷EPS X4 |
|
Subur |
2.20 |
16.15 |
64.6 |
3.4 |
|
Cepat |
1.14 |
7.74 |
31.0 |
3.4 |
|
SOP |
6.32 |
36.44 |
Rm1.56 |
4.1 |
|
Jaya Tiasa |
1.09 |
5.28 |
21.12 |
5.2 |
|
Sarawak Pl |
2.90 |
11.66 |
46.6 |
6.2 |
|
Hap Seng |
2.49 |
11.79 |
47.2 |
6.3 |
|
Ta Ann |
5.59 |
21.8 |
82.2 |
6.4 |
Comparison based on Market cap ÷ planted Hectare
|
Name |
Price Rm |
Market Cap Million |
Hectare |
MC÷Ha |
|
Subur |
2.20 |
460 |
44,000 |
10.5 |
|
Jaya Tiasa |
1.09 |
1,062 |
70,000 |
15.2 |
|
SarawakPl |
2.90 |
812 |
35,000 |
23.0 |
|
Cepat |
1.14 |
360 |
10,000 |
36.0 |
|
SOP |
6.20 |
3,580 |
88,000 |
40.6 |
|
Ta Ann |
5.94 |
2,642 |
50,000 |
52.8 |
|
Hap Seng |
3.05 |
2,392 |
35,000 |
67.0 |
Indonesia Government bans palm oil export.
The Indonesian Government just announced the ban of palm oil export to help the local consumers because the palm oil price has been going up higher and higher. As a result, CPO price has not retreated from its historical high. As shown on the CPO price chart below the current price is Rm 6,869.00 per ton.
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 27 of 27 comments
T thought this week superbull ......only say May ? please early say loooorrrrr ....why still not direct to the point
2022-04-25 16:32
I already sell ...wait until May ..buy back .....its not good buying now ...the trend dropping ...
2022-04-25 16:34
JAKARTA/KUALA LUMPUR (April 25): Indonesian government officials told palm oil companies on Monday that an export ban announced late last week would cover shipments of refined, bleached, deodorized (RBD) palm olein but not crude palm oil, two industry sources told Reuters.
Though an exemption of crude palm oil from the export curbs will be positive for global markets, the majority of Indonesia's palm exports are in the form of processed oils and remain affected by the ban.
There were still concerns that crude palm oil would also be added to the list of banned products, as it is raw material for RBD palm olein.
According to data from Indonesia's palm oil association (GAPKI) exports of processed CPO in 2021 stood at 25.7 million tonnes, or 75% of total exports of palm products. CPO exports were 2.74 million tonnes in 2021, or 7.98% of the shipments.
------------------------------------------------------------------
The news is too sketchy. No official details from government yet. Stay calm for more details to emerge.
2022-04-26 07:04
The most active traded FCPO is 2 or 3 months from current month.
Example, on 15th April, most active traded month is June, on 16th April, most active traded month is July.
If the companies (big companies) sell their CPO to the most active month prices,
Then this coming Q1-2022 result will not be better than Q4-2021, but the next Q2-2022 will be very good, much better than Q4-2021 and Q1-2022.
However, most small companies sell at spot price, which I do not monitor, so I dun know.
2022-04-26 11:07
There are some group really bad in buy call, GIF investiment in fb, making big losses in this counter. Beware !
2022-04-26 13:11
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥
Best and only way to value any company properly: The value of the business is the discounted value of all its future cash flows.
2022-04-26 16:07
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥
Owners of oil palm estates are enjoying bumper incomes. They are all very happy and this present price of palm oil is the highest ever in their lifetime so far.
How much more will you pay for this business at this favourable period?
-----
And so, it is time to revisit what Ben Graham wrote in The Intelligent Investor –
…the risk of paying too high a price for good-quality stocks — while a real one — is not the chief hazard confronting the average buyer of securities. Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.
The purchasers view the current good earnings as equivalent to “earning power” and assume that prosperity is synonymous with safety.
Buying high quality businesses at expensive prices carries a risk of poor returns, but buying low quality businesses even at cheap prices carries a risk of permanent capital destruction. And there is a big difference between the two.
2022-04-26 16:22
Look at logic mah!
Plantation co are trading at reasonable valuation like Pe below 13x....yielding dividend at 3% to 7% pa......and sitting on huge undervaluation of its land assets mah!
In the environment of rampant inflation n declining MYR forex....plantation is one of the best proxy to wealth protection loh!
Yes...u can say invest in branded nestle loh! But look at the price loh....u really overpay loh!
Pe 52x and dividend yield just a magre 1.82% pa loh!
Surely u overpay....loh.....plus its earnings growth is not robust at all loh!
Plantation....has the capacity its earnings loh!
Plus its valuation modest mah!
2022-04-26 16:37
For mkt to work there must be buyers & sellers mah!
Both of them need to have different opinion for the price to transact mah!
Posted by Markv572421 > 8 minutes ago | Report Abuse
If plantation so good ... then why people throw away (Sell)...
2022-04-26 16:58
Remember nothing can beat plantation investment in preservation of wealth loh!
2022-04-26 17:02
Such a big liar....pls dont promote and trick people by using nice nice word about plantation ......so irritating .....
2022-04-26 17:07
U talk like a soohuaiiiii loh!
U R in the plantation thread mah!
Only Logicalyl we talk of good thing about plantation mah!
2022-04-26 17:11
kyy, ...................subur latest quarter reports................only two months basic...................play attention.
2022-04-26 22:29
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