Koon Yew Yin's Blog
Who will lose in the Ukraine war? Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Mon, 01 Aug 2022, 10:27 AM
Koon Yew Yin
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An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. After 6 months of fighting aggressively, no one knows when the war will end and who will eventually win. The map below shows the current situation in the Ukraine war.
At least 12 million people have fled their homes since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations (UN) says. More than five million have left for neighbouring countries, while seven million people are still thought to be displaced inside Ukraine itself. Moreover, hundreds of Ukrainians are killed every day.
Since the war began, all NATO nations including US have been helping Ukraine with military weapons and finance to fight Russia.
The graph below shows the amount of money donated to Ukraine in terms of Billions of Euros.
Recently US Congress has approved $40 billion in aid for Ukraine and other countries affected by the conflict―the sixth aid package since the war began.
US economy is weakened by the Ukraine war. Is US in recession? US reported 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth rates. US inflation is highest in the last 40 years and Federal Reserve Bank has increased 0.75% interest rate to counter inflation.
The Ukraine war is turning into a protracted conflict. The invasion is developing into a war of attrition, where each side attempts to break down the other through continuous and ongoing losses of, personnel, troops and equipment.
All the EU countries have been buying Russian oil and gas because Russia is the nearest supply source.
NATO nations including US imposed economic sanctions on Russia which is counterproductive. All NATO countries are discouraged from buying Russian oil and gas. As a result, the prices of all consumer products including food, oil and gas have been surging because Russia is the 3rd largest oil producer in the world. Russia is also one of the largest wheat producers. Crude oil has been going up as shown on the chart below.
Russian Ruble has strengthened
The Russian Ruble was at 60 per USD in late July, remaining well above levels prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and cementing its rebound from the record low of 130 touched in March, supported by strict capital controls and trade imbalances. Higher prices for energy and commodities since the start of the war lifted export revenues and relative Ruble demand amid a collapse in importing activity due to sanctions. Ruble-US$ exchange rate as shown below:
After 6 months of war, all NATO countries including US and Ukraine have gone poorer as prices for food, oil and gas have been surging. Moreover, winter is coming. How much longer can they endure?
In the meantime, Russia is getting richer and it has food surplus. Moreover, Russia is selling oil and wheat in Ruble. As a result, Ruble has appreciated.
Conclusion: If the Ukraine war is protracted all the NATO countries including US are getting poorer but Russia is getting richer. Eventually Ukraine will have to surrender.
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 50 of 54 comments
War is a very expensive hobby! All wars end up bad! The Great Britain ended bankrupt because of wars!
US will go bankrupt as they already spent trilions on wars! China not much, only spend on expanding military presence but it's also expensive to maintain!
Russia on the other hand, will go bankrupt badly! Russia totally depends on oil and gas and nothing else! Not even member of WTO! Nothing to export except the ever declining demand of oil and gas!
2022-08-01 18:01
1. Mike Pence will partner with Nikki Haley
2. So silly got messed up with Putin, he will drown you. The Ukraine PM have been made use by the Nazism.
3. Israel should not take side, since the Ukraine PM is a Jew, because Israel have to bomb Iranian military assets daily in Syria and Russia agreed not to take side although Iran is a good customer for Russia. Don't be silly because Russia can be angered by and fight back for Iran in Syria.
2022-08-01 19:59
Only time will tell on who will win this war.
I think a more appropriate question is: why hasn't Russia won yet? It has been more than 6 months. USA took only about a month to completely takeover stronger countries like Iraq. And Russia, who's military was supposedly able to go toe-to-toe with that of the US, can't even take Ukraine. It seems like Russia's military is just a paper tiger.
2022-08-01 22:17
Also, if KYY is arguing that inflation and rate hike in the US will make it hard for Ukraine to win the war. Well it must be even harder for Russia who's inflation is 35% higher than the US's, and its interest rate went to 20% before dropping to still not great 9.5% (3.8x that of the US). Imagine having to pay almost 10% interest every year on your loans. Pain! So much pain!
2022-08-01 22:29
Putin will loose the war in this world and the after life. Russians n Uranians r innocent. It all started with Putin n end with Putin.
2022-08-01 23:25
Yes. Not sure how that's relevant. It's not American soldiers that are dying in Ukraine.
2022-08-01 23:48
At 9.5% interest rate, I think time is Russia's worst enemy now considering the power of compounding XD.
2022-08-01 23:59
I think Russia better spend their money on productive things instead of missiles to massacre Ukraine to the last Ukrainians.
2022-08-02 00:01
Oh wait, they can't make missiles anymore because of the sanctions on essential weapon parts. There goes the Russian military industrial complex XD lmao.
2022-08-02 00:03
Russians r tightly controlled by Putin. Whre is the statistics to prove dat Putin popularity has increased?
2022-08-02 06:11
https://focusmalaysia.my/can-a-non-malay-become-pm-of-msia-not-in-my-lifetime-part-2/
US got black president before
Peru got japanese president before
India got singh president before
Britain maybe getting an indian pm
when malaysia turn for a non-malay pm?
2022-08-02 07:50
who is majority ?,who is minority? majority is the common people, minority is the corrupted politicians and con-artists.
2022-08-02 10:40
Ukrainians are worst than German Nazi
They did the worse than what happened in Holocaust/
PM Zelensky is not good in History
The Germans apologized and gave helping hands for what have been done by their grandparents...offered the best technology about the submarines, nuclear powered weapons, can be launched from the sea.
Same for the Polish, not even a word to say sorry
Japanese also
Nobody can run away from the Almighty God
He is running the show
2022-08-02 13:35
Beinvested
Ukrainian did worst than Holocaust? Are you referring to the Holodomor where millions of Ukrainians died. It was Russia under Stalin who did that.
2022-08-02 14:51
https://sg.yahoo.com/news/charles-yeo-reform-party-chairman-wanted-police-failing-return-singapore-031256316.html
Usually, the person would pray that a place of hiding be safe for him/her to run away from the police.
But for David, in Psalm 7:3-5, he prayed that if he is guilty of the criminality, let him be captured by the pursuing party. How honest/honourable a person like David.
2022-08-02 14:52
Cupcakes,
Germany Nazi wanted to takeover Russia.
Ukrainians welcome Nazi Germany, collaboration.
They helped the Germans to do the Holocaust in Ukraine.
2022-08-02 15:02
No they didn't help the germans do the Holocaust. The Ukrainians did welcome the Germans because the Russian killed millions of Ukrainian in the Holodomor. But then after, they got backstabbed when the Germans started killing millions of Ukrainians too. In other words, the Ukrainians were victims of the Holocaust. There's even a Holocaust memorial in Ukraine for the millions of Ukrainians who died in the Holocaust (which Putin's army bombed).
2022-08-02 15:17
The Ukrainians thought the Germans would liberate them from Stalin. But then soon found out the hard way that Hitler was a killer too .
2022-08-02 15:22
The native Ukrainians, heroes/nationalist, murdered/holocaust, during the occupation by the German Nazi in Ukraine.
The memorial is for the holocaust in Ukraine.
2022-08-02 15:27
Yes, being Ukrainian in WW2 was difficult. With Russia, get killed. With Germans, get killed.
2022-08-02 15:32
The native Ukrainians were enlisted by the Germany Nazi after Ukraine being occupied. What the Germans did in their homeland? These native Ukrainians shared the same agenda like their occupier - holocaust. The land of Ukraine is full of blood...God is running the show..
2022-08-02 15:36
For our own talking here....see Mr Putin branded it as " to defeat the Nazism in Ukraine" and Germany today is shaking and wished not to be beaten like Hilter while daily depending of the Russian gas. Israel is not sympathizing with PM Zelensky, although he is a Jew, he may have thought that PM Bennett will speak for him, Bennett better be smart. PM Zelensky got uncles/grand uncles killed by the Nazism then.
2022-08-02 15:47
Ukraine Corruption Index
The Corruption Perceptions Index ranks countries and territories based on how corrupt their public sector is perceived to be. A country or territory’s score indicates the perceived level of public sector corruption on a scale of 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean).
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates
32.00 33.00 33.00 15.00 1998 - 2021
Malaysia score 48 point and China 45 point.
So what did Western style of democracy brought to Ukraine?
2022-08-02 16:17
Beinvested
Eh, first you say the native were murdered. Now you say the native murdered themselves XD. Up to you lah if you want to make your own version of history. The Holocaust memorial in Ukraine was built to remember the evil Nazi Germany caused, not Ukrainian. Ukrainian were the victims.
2022-08-02 16:23
Sslee
"...on a scale of 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean)...Malaysia score 48 point and China 45 point..."
Your own data shows that Malaysia, a somewhat western style democracy, still ranks better in terms of corruption compared to China's dictatorship.
Also, Ukraine and Malaysia is not the only democracy in the world. Why dont you have a look at Taiwan, it scored 68 in the corruption index, making it the 25th least corrupt country in the world.
2022-08-02 16:33
Beinvested
Very funny for Putin to claim to denazify Ukraine. Ukraine elected Zelensky as president, and he is jewish.
2022-08-02 16:38
Native Ukrainians killed the jews in Ukraine during the Nazi german occupation.
basically, they were finishing/continuing the job for the Nazi.
Native Ukrainians also suffered under the occupation of the nazi germans.
They all (natives and jews) suffered under the the nazi/Hitler.
2022-08-02 16:45
Ukraine will win in the war. Don't get jealous about it. Those people who read communist china version of history,why not buy or invest in property in china, Good for you lah, stay invested . or your money in china banks. You will learn the lesson well.
2022-08-02 16:48
Beinvested
If Ukraine wanted to Holocaust, the would have done it even before Germany occupied. Only when Germans occupied Ukraine did the Holocaust in Ukraine start, and it was done by nazi Germany, not Ukrainian.
But of course, up to you lah if you want to make your own version of history. The Holocaust memorial in Ukraine was built to remember the evil Nazi Germany caused, not Ukrainian. Ukrainian were the victims.
2022-08-02 16:50
Yah most likely Ukraine win. 6 months already, and Ukraine is inly getting stronger with those HIMARS missile given by the US.
2022-08-02 16:54
6 months already, Russia still no closer to Kyiv. If follow realist, Russia has failed.
2022-08-02 16:56
The heroes/native Ukrainians proved they are on the side of the Nazi Germany (after occuping Ukraine), that they even more skillful than the Germans in murdering the jews.
Those were enlisted into the army for the Nazi.
2022-08-02 16:59
Ego. If remove the ego, then no jealousy/anger/baseless hatred/revenge...less suffering.
Each one wants to win. Of course the damages in Ukraine will take many many years to rebuild. Z entangled by the Nato. Just pick up a bottle of Vodka and drink with Putin lah...so everyone let their egos down.
2022-08-02 17:07
That's why don't mess up with such people
some people -
1. angered very fast, forgive very fast
2. angered slowly, forgive very fast
3, angered very fast, forgive slowly...kept in the heart for years
4. angered slowly, forgive slowly.
2022-08-02 17:27
https://malaysia.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-united-states-directly-123123782.html
Effectively, USA is having war from Ukraine with Russia.
Don't be surprised anymore like how this Ukraine-Russia started on 24 Feb 2022. Putin might as well just release some nuclear bombs to those filthy Europeans countries minutes before he has to surrender. Likely, he will not give in
2022-08-03 11:08
Beinvested
"...Minutes before Putin has to surrender"
So you think he'll lose to the point that he has to go nuclear?
2022-08-03 12:30
If you continue to make him to the verge of losing...
Just like N Korea, if you keep irritate/provoke him/fat boy...he may at least may bomb S Korea/Japan at least, so USA need to be aware
In Taiwan, China may takeover it soon, in the near future, as pushed ahead the schedule by Miss Nancy...gave a China a good reason to settle this family issue for once and for all. After the takeover, then China can let USA to choose, to come in or or not to complicate a family matter further.
2022-08-03 15:00
https://www.newsweek.com/medvedev-russia-ukraine-vkontakte-georgia-kazhakstan-1730076?amp=1
Well Ukraine is keeping Russia busy and making Georgia and Kazakh safe
2022-08-03 21:10
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There is no winner in war only suffering
2022-08-01 17:57