Koon Yew Yin's Blog
Hengyuan's profit is erratic - Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022, 03:28 PM
Koon Yew Yin
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An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
My sole intention for writing this article is to prevent investors from losing money. Investors must read this piece carefully to make good investment decisions.
Hengyuan Refining Co Bhd is engaged in refining and manufacturing of petroleum products in Malaysia. Majority of its revenue is derived from the sale of refined petroleum products. It buys crude oil to refine into many products for sale. Its profit largely depends on the Brent Crack Spread margin which is as shown below.
Based on the Brent Crack Spread profit margin, it reported reduced earnings per share (EPS) of 15.82 sen for the quarter ending March. It reported EPS of 59.93 sen for its previous quarter.
It should report a fantastic jump in profit for the next quarter ending June because the Brent Crack Spread profit margin short up to 32.5% which will be announced in the next few days.
But its profit for the quarter ending September will drop like a bomb because the Brent Crack Spread profit margin has dropped like a bomb.
Investors should look ahead and be aware of irresponsible promoters who keep encouraging you to buy Hengyuan.
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 30 of 30 comments
This old musang know nuts. He only knows how to take advantage of weak investors.
2022-08-25 17:33
Hihihaha! Grandpa is so anti Hengyuan! I thought he loves China so much! Wait, he did bought alot of those red China stocks to pass down to his grandchildren!
2022-08-25 21:31
I believe in karma....
Posted by Zhuge_Liang
No point to argue.
He did not read the details and simply talk without facts and figures.
He did not know Hengyuan refined diesel and jet fuel.
He thought Hengyuan only refined gasoline only.
If he is so good, he will not lose back all his profit our sifu helped us to make.
We feel very sad 500 million is lost back to the market.
If he believed and listen to our sifu, this money would have saved to help a lot of students.
Let the Q2 2022 and Q3 2022 results speak for itself.
Let the share price to prove who is right and who is wrong.
2022-08-25 21:35
HY Complex refinery margin update - 26/08/22
...........
Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/
Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/
Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/
From above:
1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 45.95/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 34.30/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (10.00 + 3.96) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 13.96/bbl
Gross refining margin:
= (0.46 x 45.95 ) + (0.07 x 34.30) + (0.35 x 13.96)+ (0.12 x 13.96)
= 21.14 + 2.40 + 4.88 + 1.67
= US $ 30.1 / brl
.................
Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin
= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $30.1/brl) x (MYR 4.4/USD)
= 1.417 Billion MYR
...................
2022-08-26 18:49
SSlee,
Hengyuan is a kon stock loh!
Even if u see very big profit....Hengyuan owner will not share the good bounty with us loh!
They will think of various ways to siphon the cash & its profit away mah!
The best strategy is to selldown HY and switch to Petron for better protection b4 too late mah!
2022-08-26 19:21
refer Page 22 of the annual report for complete picture on HY products.
As a complex refinery HY has to ability to adjust yield of its products. HY produces 46% Diesel on this table.
https://klse1.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/422363.jsp
2022-08-26 23:05
Extract from a news in June 22' concerning Diesel margin:
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/red-hot-asia-gasoil-margins-075310521.html
Refining margins for the benchmark 10 ppm gasoil in Singapore, which have soared nearly 63% in the last two weeks, hit $55.77 a barrel over Dubai crude on Monday, an all-time high according to Refinitiv data that goes back to 2014. Gasoil is currently the top money spinner for Asian refineries.
2022-08-26 23:12
Crack rose to USD 46.18 / brl as predicted...
Posted by probability > Aug 26, 2022 11:15 PM | Report Abuse X
live data shows refining margin is further rising, we will see a further rise in Diesel crack spread soon:
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
2022-08-27 08:23
Thanks to Grandpa Koon 25 Aug article "Hengyuan's profit is erratic", HY turning uptrend, even DJIA loss 1,000 points...What he ask you to sell, you buy....!!!
2022-08-29 11:41
According to sifu, KYY is very fearful to lose money in KLSE.
He has lost back 500 million profit to the market.
He has no much money left behind.
He has committed to give up scholarship to students, he has to honour them.
Sifu dared not attack him because of this good deed he has done.
It is really pitiful for him, 2 of important persons have left him especially his accountant and sifu.
These 2 persons worked very hard to help him previously.
2022-08-29 11:58
Do not be naive loh!
Hengyuan although reported more than Rm 600m in profit in Q2, but its unrealized mark to mkt losses exceed Rm 1 billion mah!
The net effect is hengyuan is losing more than Rm 400m for q2 loh!
Please do not ignore effect like it is nothing loh...it is like u running a race & u r really behind by Rm 400m loh!
Some people will say.....this will catch up in Q3....but question is there may be possibility of falling further behind....bcos the future crack spread has fallen towards USD 3 to 4 level mah!
Hengyuan investors....face enormous challenges....beside need to catch up....with enormous net loss of Rm 400m or loss of Rm 1.10 per share....its future crack spread margin has fallen behind drastically loh!
Investors....are advice to exercise caution & preferably take profit whenever u can, if u like this industry better to switch to Petron, that has actually shown a better positive result of eps above Rm 0.60....despite also reporting hedging losses but it is overcome by prudent & efficient management in managing its risk loh!
2022-08-31 12:15
Why Raider are so against Hengyuan leh ??
The key point is its consistent enormous derivative losses mah !!
The key question to ask is, why Hengyuan have such a huge derivative losses of more than Rm 1 billion compare a small manageable loss at Petron leh ??
The risk at hengyuan has the following possibility loh!
1. The enormous derivative losses of hengyuan are due management/owner deliberate disguise attempt to siphon cash out of hengyuan thru hedging disguise losses loh!
2. It could be genuine loss, but due to poor & risk management of hengyuan that resulted this uncontrol huge losses mah!
Both scenario are equally very bad for hengyuan loh!
U just imagine lah! If hengyuan has done nothing to hedge in Q2.....it could have make more than rm 600m.....but bcos it wanted to hedge it loss more than rm 400m loh!
This type of situation should not happen loh....it is a bad gambling mentality shown in hengyuan mah!
At Petron.....the hedging is moderate & manageable despite reporting a hedging losses...the company turn in net profit with genuine eps exceeding 60 sen in q2 loh!
The management of Petron are rational & dependable, unlike gambling like type of attitude of the management in hengyuan mah!
2022-08-31 12:15
U see hengyuan reported EPS exceeding Rm 2.00.....but actually the actual net losses at hengyuan net of derivative losses is exceeding rm 1.00 mah!
To catch naive investors to chae.....who do not look in detail....Hengyuan try to catch these people...by declaring dividend of 10 sen.....in and attempt to entice the ignorance loh!
Hengyuan balance sheet is in trouble with borrowing exceeding Rm 2.8 billion or Rm 9.80 borrowing per hengyuan share loh!
This high leverage is risky loh.....the actual losses exceeded Rm 400m for q2 mah!
Posted by Johnzhang > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse
HY pay 10sen 1st interim dividend leh.
Petron no interim dividend leh.
2022-08-31 12:16
Do not be fool loh!
This tax are not paid mah! It is just a provision for tax todate mah!
Remember there is Derivative losses of more than Rm 1 billion....once this derivative losses are settled....hengyuan profit will be minimal thus actual tax will be very low loh!
U see the benefit of this disguise hedging losses....is that huge fund can be siphon from hengyuan and the same time the tax payout will be low loh!
Those who suffer will be hengyuan minority shareholders & creditors loh!
Posted by Sharewire > 24 seconds ago | Report Abuse
Reminder hengyuan pay tax 200million just to be fake.!
Bad actor claim!
2022-08-31 12:16
the latest quarterly results reported by Heng Yuan cannot be sustained. Don't be fooled by it. That's my sincere advice..
2022-08-31 13:16
The damage done by KYY on all investors in Hengyuan is too huge.
This type of damage done by him cannot be forgiven.
All poor investors just cut loss because of his bad mouth.
No wonder he continue to lose all his money in KLSE.
It is a big punishment on this man.
2022-08-31 14:55
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
investor77
Uncle Koon, now Heng Yuan shares going up due to good results. Please join us. Hibiscus is good also, but eps wise, less than HY. Crack spread going down is MoGas 92., and not others. Many are wary of HY as many lost their pants in 2017 as it fell from RM 18 to RM 5. Those playing CWs , like in Gloves, lost more as it is leveraged.
2022-08-25 15:34