Is China's Bubble the Next Financial Crisis? 

dragonking

Good work LENO. Do updates more.

2014-10-10 10:47

leno

no sweat .... tat's my hobbies.

2014-10-10 11:29

dragonking

leno,,,you sell all already or half (Curious to know).

2014-10-10 11:41

leno

i alredi sell off sangat BANYAK ... i can onli tell u, i am holding millions of cash now.

2014-10-10 11:48

LyyInvestor

congrat leno on ur earning.

2014-10-10 13:50

leno

TQ Lyy.

2014-10-10 14:02

sunztzhe

A glut of European savings and a lack of local investing opportunities could be set to keep a lid on U.S. borrowing costs and to drive global markets for years to come, say strategist Saravelos at Deutsche Bank. It is Europe’s huge savings glut – what we call euroglut – that will drive global trends for the foreseeable future.

At around $400 billion each year, Europe’s current account surplus is bigger than China’s in the 2000s. If sustained, it would be the largest surplus ever generated in the history of global financial markets.

This matters. Europe is the new China, and via large demand for foreign assets, it will play a dominant role in driving global asset price trends for the remainder of this decade. Globally, Europeans — among the world’s biggest savers — will drive capital flow trends for the rest of the decade, Saravelos predicts, making Europe the largest capital exporter in the 21st century.He sees the European Central Bank embarking on an aggressive round of asset purchases, which will push down real yields and create a domestic “asset shortage.”

That will prompt European investors to go abroad in the hunt for yield.

How would markets react? This is how Saravelos thinks it could play out:

The outflows will help drive the euro ever lower, eventually dropping below parity with the U.S. dollar, Saravelos says. He forecasts the euro to fetch just 95 cents by the end of 2017.

Yield curves will be very flat, with U.S. fixed income a “primary beneficiary” of European demand. In fact, if there is enough demand for long-dated instruments, the 10-year U.S. yield could easily trade below terminal Fed funds, a phenomenon that occurred in the 2000s amid the so-called bond conundrum and might become more likely now thanks to ever larger current-account surpluses, he says.

In the long run, this should also be good news for emerging markets as the flows make it more likely that marginal demand for emerging market assets goes up rather than down, he says.

2014-10-10 14:05

leno

saravelos who ? u trust a stranger with no reputation ? Did he predicted current glut ? No. Did he predicted the oil price drop ? No. Did he predicted anything which turn out to be correct so far ? Ermmm .... no. He dunt understand economies. BOOOO CHOOOOWWWW CCCCCCCCCC AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

2014-10-10 14:20