• Still BUY and MYR2.70 TP, 43% expected total returns. Cocoaland’s 1Q19 earnings were within expectations – they were down mainly on higher marketing expenses. Demand for its gummy and hard candy products stayed resilient, though. Cost optimisation initiatives saw some results: lower employee costs. We continue to like the stock, given its sustainable earnings on robust gummy products demand, supported by a proven track record and strong brand equity.

• No surprises. Cocoaland’s 1Q19 results were within our and consensus expectations, with earnings of MYR8.4m (-1.8% YoY, -12.6% QoQ) that accounted for 25% and 27% of full-year forecasts. The lower earnings were mainly attributed to higher marketing expenses and decreased other income, netting off increased revenue of MYR65.6m (+1.9% YoY, +7% QoQ). No dividend was declared.

• Cost optimisation bearing fruit. The manufacturing segment’s performance improved, reporting 1Q19 PBT of MYR4m (1Q18: MYR83,000 LBT) – thanks to a better product mix and lower employee costs. However, Cocoaland continued to feel the impact of sluggish demand for beverage products, dragging revenue down 9.2% YoY (-0.02% QoQ) to MYR16.9m – this offset growing demand for gummy and hard candy products.

• Marketing expenses a drag. The trading unit registered higher revenue of MYR48.7m (+6.3% YoY, +9.7% QoQ), as demand for gummy, snacks, and coco-pie products grew. However, higher marketing expenses from exhibition and promotional activities dragged PBT down to MYR6.5m (-52.7% YoY, +5.3% QoQ). We also note that this unit’s PBT margin dropped 12ppts when compared to 1Q18’s numbers.

• Key risks and forecasts. Downside risks to our recommendation and earnings forecasts include sharp rises in raw material costs and weaker consumer sentiment. A strengthening of the MYR against the USD should also negatively affect Cocoaland’s earnings. We make no changes to our forecasts.

• We keep our call on the stock, as we expect resilient demand for the company’s gummy products on strong brand equity to continue support earnings. We like Cocoaland for its generous dividend payouts (translating into prospective yields of 5%), backed by a sturdy balance sheet and healthy cash flow generation. There is no change to our TP, with total expected returns of 43% – this based on 2019F earnings of an unchanged 18x target P/E, +1.5SD from its 5-year mean.

Source: RHB Securities Research - 23 May 2019