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(RICHE HO) GKENT 乔治肯特 – 调整只是时间上的问题

RicheHo
Publish date: Fri, 09 Dec 2016, 08:09 PM
RicheHo
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乔治肯特GKENT – 调整只是时间上的问题

GKENT创办于1936年,在1972年上市于大马交易所,主要涉及水表生意。它的水表厂设在雪兰莪蒲种,目前是东盟最大的厂房,每年能制造出200万个水表。此外,早前GKENT也透过轻快铁(LRT ) 第三条路线项目和安邦 【AMPANG】轻快铁延长路线项目,进军建筑工程承包商。其建筑部门主要包含两项收入,建筑工程和基础设施投资。

日前 (12/5),GKENT发布了FY17Q3业绩,其盈利按年按季分别增长97%和16% (参考附图2),创下有史以来的新高。这已是GKENT连续7季度交出按年成长的业绩。同时,GKENT也在这个季度建议派发2仙的股息。其FY17累积股息已达5仙,整年的股息有望超越FY16的7仙。

虽然GKENT的盈利标青,但是GKENT两个部门的营收按季却下滑。管理层并未在季报里作出任何解释。唯一的解释就是GKENT建筑项目的进度已到较高赚幅的阶段。按照GKENT的盈利来看,其手上建设项目的进度良好。

展望未来,在2016年8月,GKENT和中国交通建设股份【CCCC】的联营公司获得总值RM1.01b的捷运 (MRT) 工程。在2016年11月,GKENT再获得公共工程局【JKR】颁发价值RM277.19m的工程,在雪兰莪丹绒加弄 (Tanjung Karang) 建设拥有150个床位的医院。这两项工程将额外提升GKENT手上订单至RM5.90billion。这些订单预计可维持GKENT的收入至少5年以上。

其最主要的利好因素来自轻快铁第三线路逾RM9b的建筑工程订单。根据工程执行伙伴的6%收费,GKENT有望在5年内获得RM270m的收入。因此,GKENT的未来盈利普遍看涨。换句话说,只要GKENT按照工程原定进度执行,基本上它的未来盈利已获得保证。

今日 (12/9) ,GKENT收市在RM2.92。那么,GKENT目前的股价是否安全买入?

回归估值,GKENT目前的PE是11倍,最新季度FY16Q3盈利为历史新高的RM23.7m。假设它有能力在未来一年交出RM100m的盈利,以300.41m的股数计算,GKENT的每股潜在盈利是33.3仙。再以8-10倍的PE推算,它的每股潜在价值处在RM2.66-3.33之间,相等于10-14%的潜在涨幅。

从技术走势来看 (参考附图) ,GKENT起涨于今年7月,其股价在半年内从RM1.55飙升至目前的RM2.92,相等于88%的涨幅。当中,除了10/31的一天意外暴跌,GKENT并未经历任何大型的调整。GKENT目前的走势健康,仍处于上涨趋势。下个问题,GKENT到底可继续上涨多高?

值得一提,无论一家企业的盈利再怎么出色,其股价也会经历调整的一天。最好的例子就是今年的JHM、PENTA和MYCRON。PENTA的盈利连续2个季度创下新高,目前PE是9.5倍。它早前曾从RM0.70起涨至最高RM1.56,相等于123%的涨幅。然而,PENTA近期却经历大幅度回调,股价已回调至RM1.20的水平。

MYCRON近2个季度的盈利同样也是标青,目前PE更是区区的7.5倍。在业绩出炉后,MYCRON的股价近日却从1.12暴跌至0.83,相等于26%的跌幅。它的业绩没有任何问题,唯一可解释的就是MYCRON已步入较大型调整的阶段。早前,它曾从0.55攀升至最高1.16,相等于111%的涨幅。值得一提,MYCRON今年初的股价只是区区的RM0.25,至今已上涨4倍左右。

回到GKENT,以上股票在调整前的平均涨幅大约是115%。GKENT起涨于RM1.55,以115%的涨幅计算,它预计最高可去到RM3.33。巧合的是,这和估值计算出来的价位是一样。

总结,GKENT的未来盈利看涨。然而,本专页认为它目前的价位并非是个极佳的买入点。GKENT最乐观的上涨空间只是10-14%左右。对于已买入并握有成本优势的股友,GKENT可长期持有。但是,对于正打算买入追高的股友,请思考再思考。

 

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Be the first to like this. Showing 33 of 33 comments

Jian Bin Siew

Good point.

2016-12-09 21:13

IamGoogle

It's totally WRONG & MISLEADING by comparing GKent to Mycron as these 2 are in entirely different industries and carry with different stories. Mycron should be used to compare CSC Steel while Gkent should be compared to similar players in construction, for examples gamuda or IJM.

2016-12-09 21:31

Chin Leong

if adjust then buy lo. easy

2016-12-09 23:48

younginvestor92

Did this guy recommended any stocks that rise a lot? I know he can talk like a pro, but got results?

2016-12-10 00:50

lewis27wong

Another post that purposely trying to hammer down the price just to make it favourable for your own buying?

2016-12-10 00:52

younginvestor92

Because i see his opensys not very good leh, keep talk sweet but in the end nothing.

2016-12-10 00:53

RicheHo

I am pretty sure this younginvestor92 bought opensys and can't earn anything. Stuck inside there now? I don't think you can write any either haha

2016-12-10 02:03

younginvestor92

Sorry, i didn't buy just because someone talk sweet about it. Same goes to your ocncash. Can you tell me that you recommended any stocks that went well? Your sweet talk killing lots of wealth.

2016-12-10 09:36

younginvestor92

and i'm pretty sure this RicheHo bought opensys

2016-12-10 09:37

CKNYAM

Richeho, I support u. So far your article is very fair judgement and always has good n bad side. Keep it up

2016-12-10 09:38

RicheHo

Hahaha younginvestor92, pls go to my fb page and refer the first post. Look at my entry price for OPENSYS. Even though if i did not sell now, i still making money. In term of OCNCASH, time will tell and please look at its latest QR.

How about you? Did you wrote anything and contribute so far?

2016-12-10 09:53

moneykj

The entry price is very important. If the company looks not so good but enter at the right time still can earn a lot. Sendai current price still a good choice. Even Bonia and Digistar enter now should be no problem.

2016-12-10 10:19

360Capitalist

George Kent is a great stock and comparing George Kent with JHM, Penta and Mycron are completely wrong in first place. The solid financial strenght, cash flow and earning visibility based on amount of jobs on hand are solid backing for the stock price. The growth potential is solid. George Kent is a railway engineering specialist and with vast oppotunity available not only in Malaysia but also in other part of SEA. The HSR will offer good opportunity to furnish the order backlogs. The current price is still very attractive and potential of further upside is still good with good dividend earner for the investors.

2016-12-10 19:16

Ezra_Investor

Riche, just a kind advise, IamGoogle is actually correct.
You using PE Ratio wrongly and accidentally misled others.
Like any valuation tool, DCFA, DDM, PER, etc, you must first understand it's uses and limitations.

For PER, you must compare your stock's PER against the industry and it's peers.
Gkent has a PER of 11x, while construction industry is roughly 13-14x PER (if I recalled correctly).
So Gkent is actually still undervalued, not fairly valued.

You must compare orange with orange, apple with apple. You should not be comparing Gkent with Mycron and Penta.
One is construction, one is commodity, one is technology.
It doesn't work that way.

PER also doesn't work in a company that has debt, as debt can influence earnings.
What is Gkent's debt? What is Mycron and Penta's?
That's why you cannot stack them together and compare.

This is a constructive criticism, not a personal attack.

2016-12-11 14:31

younginvestor92

Agree with Ezra, if just based on PE, everyone can be millionaires.....

2016-12-11 21:38

younginvestor92

And again, if you just like to talk nice and earn money its okay, but mislead others are unacceptable

2016-12-11 21:42

younginvestor92

You are using pe 11 to comment a net cash company with huge contract on hand to say its overvalued!

2016-12-11 21:45

RicheHo

Ezra, thanks for your constructive critism. Appreciate it. You had your own point but i prefer to stick with my opinion. GKENT will not be a good buy for me at current price.

Younginvestor92, if you so like net cash company, go collect FAVCO, FLBHD, etc. Would be suit you. When will be your turn to post some articles?

2016-12-11 21:59

younginvestor92

lol, enjoy your time earning money through writing sweet words. I contributed through stopping you to mislead others.

2016-12-12 02:58

younginvestor92

Again, trying to mislead me buying those bad net cash company. I didnt say net cash its a buy but you said gkent is overvalued, time will tell.

2016-12-12 03:00

RicheHo

Haha mislead others? Oh I am waiting to see what you can write. Come on. Don't just talk and comment here.

2016-12-12 03:08

RUOutOfUrMind

That's how people turn from humble to self pride, all negative comments are not welcome & those want to give different must have written some articles or you are not qualified to comment. Only praise is welcome

2016-12-12 20:57

IamGoogle

If you try to predict the share price, you will never sure if that will happen unless you have the legendary crystal ball.

When you say up, there will always be the reason to go down. When you say down, there will also always be the reason to go up. WHY? Because you are NOT Mr Market. Mr Market will decide.

2016-12-16 11:31

IamGoogle

You expressed your opinion by referring to other stocks' price movement which I was totally disagreed, that's my opinion.

If you could express opinion, what's wrong if I expressed mine?

I didn't agree with the points that written in your article, because I didn't recognise your points as facts.

2016-12-16 11:33

IamGoogle

I already told you the facts was:apple is apple, orange is orange, didn't you get the facts here?

Posted by IamGoogle > Dec 9, 2016 09:31 PM | Report Abuse X
It's totally WRONG & MISLEADING by comparing GKent to Mycron as these 2 are in entirely different industries and carry with different stories. Mycron should be used to compare CSC Steel while Gkent should be compared to similar players in construction, for examples gamuda or IJM.

2016-12-16 11:33

RicheHo

IamGoogle, I did allow you to express your opinion, but I prefer to stick with my point of view. As mention in the article, let's notice closely at price around 3.30. If it continues to go up, I will admit it is my wrong judgement. Hehe

2016-12-20 10:25

younginvestor92

Becareful with his recommendations, his subscriber has lost over 20% in recent months, he is able to write nice things but the stocks he recommended recently went really bad.

2017-01-21 12:23

einvest88

corr within 2-3 weeks

2017-01-21 12:46

younginvestor92

RM 4 lor..... not correction meh?!

2017-03-29 14:02

IamGoogle

RicheHo, first, this is open forum, anyone can express his opinion, no one need to get your permission to talk here, got it?

Secondly, your judgement is WRONG by referring Gkent's today closing.

Case closed.

2017-04-04 21:45

fl888

When u fight. What do u get? But when u buy low sell high u get something.So buy GKent or Johan now and good chance to sell higher with present Bull Klse ...

2017-04-05 07:50

fl888

TP price RM5, oterwise corporate financing cannot get at all....

2017-04-05 09:28

IamGoogle

After commenting here, I have been following Gkent, I started to buy after the release of latest QR

2017-04-06 11:13

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