Road to Success
(RICHE HO) 依华建台 SENDAI – FY16Q4业绩点评 & 投资后续分享
RicheHo
Publish date: Tue, 28 Feb 2017, 08:26 PM
依华建台 SENDAI – 投资后续分享
去年10月初，本专页在0.45-0.50之间的价位累积SENDAI，当时主要看好它投资于新加坡【TECHNICS OIL】的数额已全数注销，未来的盈利有望恢复正常。此外，SENDAI在FY16标得总值RM1.8b的建筑合约，创下集团历史新高，可保持忙碌至少一至两年。其每股净资产 (NTA) 大约是RM1.30，因此本专页认为SENDAI的股价有望在今年回到RM1.00的水平。
然而，SENDAI却在FY16Q4投下一枚重量级的“红炸弹”，竟然蒙受RM193m的亏损！其营业额按年按季分别下滑30%和8%，是近两年以来最差的表现，主要因为几项重大的项目延迟进行，导致集团的建筑业务蒙受RM33m的亏损。
SENDAI的最主要致命伤来自于石油业务。这业务在FY16Q4录得RM137m的亏损，当中的RM60m来自呆账 (Doubtful Debt) 。其项目的成本计算出现失误，导致工程预算超支。同时，SENDAI迟迟无法获得融资的资金，造成工程延迟和成本严重走高。其他的因素包括厂房使用率低、机械采购出现失误所导致的罚款和存储开销，石油领域异常缓慢的复苏。
目前，SENDAI的手上订单已提升至RM3b左右。随着石油和天然气领域逐渐复苏，管理层有信心在未来取得更好的营业额和盈利表现。
归根到底，SENDAI的糟糕表现源自于其差劲的项目执行能力。翻看过去几年的业绩表现，SENDAI几乎每一年都会出现工程预算超支或者工程延迟的问题。直到今天，这一问题仍无法获得解决。值得一提，SENDAI近几年的税后赚幅非常低，仅是5%左右。无论管理层对集团未来展望再有信心，又或者订单再创新高，其表现依然无法给人带来信心。
随着业绩出炉，SENDAI今天的股价暴跌11仙，收市在0.53，四天累积跌幅高达25%。在业绩未出炉前，SENDAI已被知情者抛售。业绩泄露的内幕消息来源只有两个可能性，一是来自于管理层，二是来自于审计师 (Auditor)。无论是哪一方都好，这是个缺乏职业操守的行为，对于不知情的股东极为不公平。此外，他们的抛售动作也导致股价非理智型的暴跌。
对于这笔投资，本专页犹如坐了一趟过山车，从早前约50%的纸上盈利到所剩无几的盈利。这也说明了一天还没卖出股票，所谓的纸上盈利都不属于你的。身边的几位股友在业绩未出炉前，已多番提醒小心业绩“红炸弹”，毕竟股价暴跌不是个好的迹象。然而，在有成本优势的条件下，本专页选择死守直到业绩出炉。最终，依然还是敌不过市场的恐慌抛售，在今早以0.59的价位把成本取回，只剩下免费的盈利股票。
事实证明，市场的抛售必定有其原因所在，SENDAI的业绩令人大失所望。本专页也在之后把剩余的股票以0.53的价位全数售出。这一战的实际回酬为17%，持有时间约5个月。虽然称得上合格，但是多多少少心有不甘。
目前，本专页已对SENDAI彻底失去信心，未来不再追求缺乏稳定性的企业，尤其是建筑领域。这类型的股票，你永远都不知它何时又会出现减值动作 (Impairment)。虽然其FY17业绩或许可恢复正常，但是宁可错过也不愿提心跳胆等待业绩。
身为投资者，我们通常只能从年报、季报、股东大会、投行报告或者媒体报导获得企业发展的消息。然而，这一切都只是非常有限的资料，当中还有很多细节是我们无法得知。
因此，我们唯一能做的就把投资风险降到最低，寻找业绩稳定性高的股票，然后以下跌风险已不大的价位买入。通过这一战，相信未来可以做得更好。
#SENDAI
纯属分享！
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Discussions
6 people like this. Showing 10 of 10 comments
Even through this is one of recommendation by Cold Eye sifu, but after I study, concluded this is not my cup of tea.
2017-03-01 07:59
Have u got more sifu Cold Eye's recommendations?
Pls share.
Patrick13 Even through this is one of recommendation by Cold Eye sifu, but after I study, concluded this is not my cup of tea.
2017-03-01 10:17
If you don't know the real fact, don't simply say. Don't try to pull Auditors into the picture. Another joker.
业绩泄露的内幕消息来源只有两个可能性，一是来自于管理层，二是来自于审计师 (Auditor)。无论是哪一方都好，这是个缺乏职业操守的行为，对于不知情的股东极为不公平。
2017-03-02 00:01
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
yewniengwei2693
Over expectations on Sendai & really learn a good lesson. We don't know what will happen on the construction industry as lots of hidden & uncertain cost will involve which we may not know. Only the top level ppl know how to present the account to public.
2017-02-28 20:46