PAKATAN Harapan’s (PH) mission to wrest control of Putrajaya once more on Nov 19 may remain a distant dream as the opposition coalition will likely not get the support of the “kingmaker” for the 15th General Election (GE15) – Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS).

GPS, a coalition of four former Sarawak-based Barisan Nasional (BN) parties that was formed after BN’s disastrous performance during the last elections, held the lion’s share of the state’s parliamentary seats before Parliament was dissolved last month. It also governs the Sarawak State Government.

Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan said it will come as “no surprise” if GPS wrests control of all 31 parliamentary seats in Sarawak come GE15.

The coalition, comprising Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS), Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) and Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP), won 19 seats during the 2018 polls – an admirable feat, although it was six fewer seats than what GPS bagged during the 2013 polls.

“No doubt they will be the kingmaker,” Azmi added, “because peninsular-based parties will not have enough (MPs) to go beyond the 112 benchmark (to obtain a simple majority to form the government)”. There are 222 seats in Parliament’s lower house.

“It will be an uphill battle for any single entity, be it PH, BN or Perikatan Nasional (PN),” he told FocusM. “So, they need help, and help can come from Sarawak GPS, making them the kingmaker (for GE15).”

Azmi, however, was pessimistic about the chances that GPS will work with PH (comprising DAP, PKR, Amanah and UPKO) to form a federal government.

“No, I don’t think it is plausible at this particular junction. Whatever the scenario is, I don’t think it will happen.

“Very sensitive”

“Not only because (DAP chairman) Lim Guan Eng previously said that Sarawak will be bankrupt in three years and not so much because of the hatred between GPS and PH – it’s because PKR and DAP fielded candidates during past state or general elections. This is something very sensitive to GPS politicians. 

“On that note alone, it is impossible for GPS to work with PH, even if PH has the first chance to form the federal government.”

Lim made the infamous remarks in June 2019 when he was the then finance minister, claiming that the East Malaysian state’s coffers will be exhausted in the near future if GPS continues to rule the state, comments that continue to haunt PH’s hopes of continuing to rule Putrajaya.

Just last week, Sarawak state minister and PBB vice-president Datuk Seri Abdul Karim Rahman Hamzah said his colleagues “have not forgotten” DAP’s alleged mistreatment of Sarawak when PH was in power from May 2018 to February 2020.

However, Karim, who previously said GPS would work with anyone except PH and DAP, said GPS would wait for the GE15 results before deciding on entering into a pact with any other party.

“I don’t think an apology from Lim or even (PH chairman) Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will make the relationship between PH and GPS better,” Azmi added.

“After all, during the upcoming elections, PKR will have their candidates in Sarawak, DAP too, so I don’t see GPS accepting any apology (from PH).

“As the saying goes, it’s all water under the bridge.”

On the other hand, Azmi said GPS will help PN and BN, whichever gets the most number of seats in West Malaysia, thus making a GE15 victory for either national coalition a sure victory.

However, with the recent tit-for-tat between Sarawak premier-cum-GPS chairman Tan Sri Abang Johari Openg and PN chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin over PN contesting in four parliamentary seats in Sarawak, it is likely that GE15 will see the formation of a BN-GPS Federal Government. – Nov 11, 2022

https://focusmalaysia.my/can-ph-bank-on-kingmaker-gps-support-come-ge15-analyst-says-no/