NIBONG TEBAL: Both Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional have been working very hard meeting voters personally in Sungai Bakap, and this race is shaping up to be highly competitive with just a day to go before polling day tomorrow.

It is going to be a neck-and-neck race for this rural seat in Penang and whoever wins will likely do so by a slim majority.

There seems to be an interesting generational gap in the political preferences of voters here, going by Rohana Ghaffar’s family.Now in her 60s, Rohana said she and her husband are long-time Umno supporters and now that Barisan is allied with Pakatan, she said they are rooting for Pakatan candidate Dr Joohari Ariffin.

But her five children, aged 20 to 45, have openly declared their support for Perikatan.

“I get the same answer from my friends. We remember the Umno struggle from decades ago, but it is different with the young,” she said.

Going by the previous election’s voting patterns, Perikatan does have the upper hand.

Perikatan took the majority of the votes in six out of the constituency’s eight polling stations.

These were in Padang Lalang, Tasek Junjong, Sungai Duri, Ladang Sempah, Sungai Kechil and Kampung Besar.

The remaining two polling stations, Puteri Gunong and Sungai Bakap, had a large percentage of Chinese and Indian voters.

Perikatan candidate Abidin Ismail, who is a Sungai Duri “kampung boy,” probably holds sway in this neighbourhood.

Odd job worker Mustafa, 50, who is a voter from Sungai Duri, said people here were comfortable with Abidin.

“He used to work with the late assemblyman Nor Zamri Latiff and knows the problems we are facing,” he said.

He said Nor Zamri had been a good assemblyman despite his lack of funds and allocations.

Mustafa believes Abidin has the advantage as he knows every corner of the constituency.

“People need an assemblyman who is close to them, not those who disappear once elected.”

Penang PKR leadership council member Senator Amir Md Ghazali remains optimistic about the party’s chances, but admitted that it might be a bit challenging, particularly in Malay-majority areas.

He perceives a significant shift in Malay support towards Pakatan that can translate into votes.

Based on last year’s records, of the 38,409 voters here, Malays make up 59.36%, followed by Chinese (22.54%), Indians (17.39%) and others (0.71%).

Penang PAS commissioner Muhammad Fauzi Yusoff expects Perikatan to spring a surprise by winning a bigger majority.

“With the current widespread public dissatisfaction towards the Federal Government, and the high cost of living, we are expecting more support for our candidate,” he said.

He added that PAS wanted Abidin to win over the trust of not only the Malays but also voters of other races because they believed the hardship was felt by everyone in this country.

Universiti Sains Malaysia Centre for Policy Research and International Studies director Associate Prof Dr Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk said a high voter turnout is critical, but by-elections tend to have lower voter participation, which adds an additional layer of unpredictability.

“A high voter turnout can tilt the balance in favour of Pakatan. Much depends on how effectively the two main candidates mobilise their supporters,” he said.

Azeem Fazwan said hardcore party supporters would likely remain loyal, but the pivotal factor would be how the candidates inspire broader participation of the electorate, especially the younger generation.

He said the voting patterns of the Malay electorate this time were critical in understanding the thoughts of the majority.

“Last year saw a shift of Malay votes to Perikatan, and now we wait to see if this pattern continues,” added Azeem Fazwan.

He said voter sentiments were notoriously volatile and could shift rapidly, making it difficult to predict the by-election’s outcome.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2024/07/05/its-a-neck-and-neck-race