WHO WILL PREVAIL?

Rule of law vs PH Manifesto on toll roads

WHAT IS THE RELATIONAL EFFECT ON THE RULE OF LAW ON FDI & DOMESTIC INVESTMENT?

A study is conducted, if a country's rule of law is weak, cost of doing business will increase, FDI per capita will drop.  Not only it will effect FDI per capita, the local business will shy away as well or charge a huge premium for "higher investment risk" due to government of the day's do not follow the standard instituitional rule of law.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO "LISTED" TOLL ROADS?

The following is at the mercy of rule of law is not followed:

1) Litrak, Gamuda

2) Ekovest

3) WCE, IJM

4) Ahmad Zaki

5) Bina Puri

6) MRCB

Billions are evaporated on Friday.  EPF, KWAP, TH, PNB easily loss a couple of billion on paper.  Is there rule of law to protect investors on toll road if they lose money in the toll concessionaire?

SO, WHAT WILL THE COUNCIL OF THE EMINENTS DO?

Fulfill the PH Manifesto, or no more next term. Abide by rule of law, but, stand to lose in the next election. Hmmm........ what will I do if I am one of the eminent member? 

Stay tune, we will know the verdict next week.  

This can be a good investment opportunity or another "trap"?  Do we have the stomach for it?

PRIVATE SECTOR VS GOVERNMENT

Will the private sector or government sector be more productive to build and manage a road?

Assuming you invest in an IPP in Vietnam (even though you know the deal is shaddy - giving out concessions to businessman with no experience in IPP) and later, there is a change of government, and found that the deals are "fraud", used the appropriation clause to stop all payments to the IPP owners (due to fraud).  Will foreign investors invest in Vietnam IPP again? (IPP is used as example only, can be toll roads, and water concessions).  Give it a thought.  Perhaps it works if can be proven there is "fraud" involved.

If it is a normal business deal, normal standard rule of law should be apply.  Else, the safest industry "toll concessionaire", become the riskiest industry. Will the new government risk to increase its "risk premium" for investment locally or FDI to satisfy the Manifesto? End game, if toll roads abolished, mainly toll road users benefit, but the entire nation pay for higher risk premium.

What would you do?