Stockman blogs

so you also want to become value investor?

stockmanmy
Publish date: Sun, 08 May 2016, 03:03 AM
Trade at your own risk. I am here only to vomit out my feelings

I think there is a conspiracy somewhere. 

Its so "trendy" to be a value investor. 

everybody says he wants to be a value investor, better still a value investor in the mould of a Warren Buffett. 

Isn't that a badge of honor of sorts? 

They want to be a value investor, learn the tools of the trade.  A future Warren Buffett. 

Proud to tell your girls friends, your parents your husbands and wives. 

A speculator? No No.....that is some thing people do in the dark, away from glaring eyes. 

So respectable to be a value investor. 

 

I don't want to break your bubble but there is only one Warren Buffett. 

What is  value investing any way? 

According to Investopia, it is....

The strategy of selecting stocks that trade for less than their intrinsic valuesValue investors actively seek stocks of companies that they believe the market has undervalued.

intrinsic value? undervalued? 

Doesn't everybody love a bargain? The holy grail of intrinsic value commands that they go looking for Low PEs, high discounts to NTA, good growth prospects, even take out their cash flow calculators to do their discounted cash flows. 

If it is so easy, you can do some computer programmes and let the computers trade for you. Why you need to do the buying and selling yourself?

 

Why I say there is a conspiracy? I say so because everybody is sold on the idea of an intrinsic value. That there is such a  thing as an intrinsic value. 

Sorry to disappoint you but there is no such thing as an intrinsic value in a vacuum. It all depends, its always relative and is always a moving target. This alone should undermine your confidence in so called intrinsic values and under (over) valuations. 

Value investing? Its just a fancy title invented by salesmen. 

 

In subsequent instalments, I will show you other ( better ) alternatives. 

 

 

 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 18 of 18 comments

Ricky Yeo

Undermine confidence? Im surprise someone that never walks the path as a value investor tries to convince others what value investing is not.

Who told you intrinsic value is tangible in the first place.

2016-05-08 08:34

GODinvest

Because everyone think they are Dragon , finally they only know is worm . Wakaka

2016-05-08 09:07

crocodile1980

The value investing is a true believe but i also damn like this statement..."If it is so easy, you can do some computer programmes and let the computers trade for you. Why you need to do the buying and selling yourself?"

2016-05-08 10:33

stockmanmy

Ricky

A value investor by definition needs two things.....an intrinsic valuation and over / under valuation. Whatever intrinsic valuation one derives, it is just his opinion based on his methodology .
In later installments, we will come to its weaknesses and fallacies.

2016-05-08 11:10

buckbunny

comman investors behavior is,,,when before buying stocks,,they are thinking of value investing method..But later,,because of impatient and greed or over confidence themselves,,they slowly rather like to taking higher risks and love speculating..this is where big mistake is begin..and kill them..

2016-05-08 11:10

Ricky Yeo

Gives me a type of investment philosophy that doesn't have weakness and fallacy then ill know ure BS.

2016-05-08 11:30

VenFx

Not surprisingly, Desa aka stockmanmy came out such an despicable article again. 
That's why he can't differentiate TWOT for each individual company / sector. He even trying to convince people to pick PUC over TEkSENG ; D&O over JHM .This is a totally Big Con from him.

2016-05-08 13:36

Hiu Chee Keong

For me, whatever you call it, it just a label, it would not affect my trading style :D

2016-05-08 13:40

stockmanmy

One example....

a value investor armed with 20 formulas about the past requires that the future earnings is an extrapolation of the past.

a defensive portfolio such as mine requires no such conditions.
it just requires that I choose my entry point well, that my loss is limited and my potential gains far exceeds my potential loss.....it requires that I read market trends ahead of the crowd.

More coming in later installments.

2016-05-08 20:46

Ricky Yeo

it requires that I read market trends ahead of the crowd. - The greatest fallacy of all time. You are the crowd

2016-05-09 09:21

noobnnew

Seriously, u really think that value investing is crunching number and arm with different formula? Then u really know nothing about value investing and I suggest you to go and watch the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway. It take a lot more to become value investor.

First of all, you need to be discipline and do not influence by noise and crowd behavior. Secondly, you need to understand the business well by looking at their past performance. It provide you a basis of valuation but always bear in mind that past does not represent future. Thirdly, you need to study the nature of the business and also read report, a lots of report for the understanding of the trend of industry. Last, you need to understand the management behavior to ensure the company will not fall because of mismanagement.

It is definitely not easy to be a value investor but it is totally worth it. Every decision you made will double or triple your return. And it is not only about crunching numbers.

2016-05-09 09:27

stockmanmy

Market trend don't mean Composite Index trends....I intend it to mean sectorial trends

Forecasting sectorial trends more reliable than extrapolating earnings from historical figures.

More later.

2016-05-09 09:28

leno

Post removed.Why?

2016-05-09 09:30

stockmanmy

Noo

3 kinds of participants....

Long term investors, portfolio managers and all the rest ( traders)

Now....everyone wants to be value investor.

Not knowing one self, hundred battles, hundred battles lost.

2016-05-09 09:33

speakup

want to be VALUE INVESTOR hor? just put all your money in FD like our super value investor Tan Teng Boo lar.

2016-05-09 09:33

speakup

Tan Teng Boo say CASH more value than property & stocks.
He support najib "CASH IS KING" motto

2016-05-09 09:34

leno

no no no, u dun know wat kok u tok about ... listen to leno the most panlai .... know yourself 100 battles 200 lost ... but if u know your stock, 100 bets definitely 200 menang ... Buy PMCORP ... gerenti menang. U no believe, then u can try buy some first ... see true or not ... gerenti true one.

2016-05-09 09:46

stockmanmy

Or OTB portfolio.

Looks like a pure number crunching portfolio.
No weight to strategy issues of the investee, quality of directors,

A self declared value investor with A small cap portfolio that sinks and swims with small cap index

2016-05-09 10:07

Post a Comment