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Tek Seng can do?
stockmanmy
Publish date: Sat, 25 Jun 2016, 07:15 PM
stockmanmy
0 76
Trade at your own risk. I am here only to vomit out my feelings
Q1 results, profit after tax $ 25 million.......5.36 sen for the quarter.
Furthermore, the Annual Report says they will increase the solar cell manufacturing capacity from 280 MW to 560 MW some time this years. Exponential EPS growth?
On closer examination, we don't want to do it..................for the following reasons..............
- $ 8.9 million of the operating income is non recurring coming from forex gains ($ 6.8m) and compensations.( $2.1m)
- adjusting for non recurring income, compensations, forex gains, private placements
the adjusted EPS is 2 sen....adjusting for dilution from warrants, it is 1.6 sen.
- there is no growth in the non solar segment ( about $ 5 for the quarter)
- The attractive part is the solar division, but after the restruturing it only owns 50% of the division.
- the way the forex goes, the second quarter can a much tougher quarter for the Company
With 309 million shares, 78 million warrants, there is a high risk you are over paying now.
With a capital commitment of $ 178 million.......the company will once again be very strecthed.
sure, you want to buy or not, Icon?
you want another Comcorp?
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1 person likes this. Showing 24 of 24 comments
Still cannot run away from the fact there are 309 million shares and 78 million warrants outstanding..........so, what is the required earnings to support a PE of 10 after tax and non controlling interest?.
It's early to say that company will make pretax profits of. $100 million for sure.
They may have difficulty financing its capital commitment of $178 million.
Another right issue? Another private placement? More warrants?
2016-06-25 20:52
Look at the facts of Tekseng and judge yourself before making your own decision for buy or bye.
We all know that it's important for a company to generate positive cash flow from the operating activities to funds its capital expansions. Therefore, we need to look back to identify its track records.
Positive cash flow from operating activities:
Year 2016 - RM 21.7 million ( 3 months ) Before purchased of P & M RM 10 million)
Year 2015 - RM 22.3 million ( Before purchased of P & M RM 162 million )
Year 2014 - RM 62.3 million ( Before purchased of P & M RM 54 million
Year 2013 - RM 11.3 million ( Before purchased of P & M RM 6.5 million
Financing:
The company made a first cash call RM 94.5 million in year 2015 and further private placement RM 28.9 million for purchase of P & M. No right issues taking place since 2012.
PER: 12.4x ( exclude compensation received )
PER: 15.7x ( exclude forex gain & compensation received )
Gearing: 0.22
Diluted EPS (after adjusting increasing shares and warrant):
31 Mar 16 - 1.84 cents ( exclude forex gain & compensation received )
31 Dec 15 - 3.05 cents
30 Sep 15 - 1.48 cents
30 Jun 15 - 1.08 cents
31 Mar 15 - 0.61 cents
Revenue:
31 Mar 16 - RM 131 million
31 Dec 15 - RM 122 million
30 Sep 15 - RM 61 million
30 Jun 15 - RM 79 million
31 Mar 15 - RM 59 million
Profitability:
31 Mar 16 - PBT RM 17.8 million ( exclude forex gain & compensation )
31 Dec 15 - PBT RM 16.4 million
30 Sep 15 - PBT RM 14.5 million
30 Jun 15 - PBT RM 4.5 million
31 Mar 15 - PBT RM 2.7 million
2016-06-25 21:40
Extracted from AR 2015:
TS Solartech had managed to expand another turnkey line in the end of
2015, resulting our current capacity at 280MW. Moving forward to 2016, TS Solartech are increasing another minimum 280 MW in production capacity, making us a total capacityof 560 MW. We are looking to further expanding
TS Solartech’s capacity in order to meet the global demand.
With the growing awareness towards greener environment and the recovery
of fuel price, solar industry is believed to be able to slowly gain momentum. With the Paris summit and US’s tax credit extension, we believe the solar market is slowly recovering. Therefore, we remain optimistic in TS Solartech
like how we have done for the past few years.
2016-06-25 21:48
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on April 27, 2016.
Tek Seng Holdings Bhd (April 26, RM1.25) Upgrade to buy with a target price (TP) of RM1.48: Tek Seng Holdings Bhd’s solar segment, which achieved a significant turnaround in the third financial quarter ended Sept 30, 2015 (3QFY15) after a production ramp-up, is expected to achieve better economies of scale in FY16 and lead the company’s earnings growth. Tek Seng’s bottom line is estimated to grow 110% year-on-year, with 66% of its net profit (after minority interest) to be contributed by the solar segment.
Tek Seng’s construction of a new plant has been completed recently. To recap, this three-storey new plant has a gross floor area of close to five acres (2ha) and can house 10 solar cell production lines. The floor space of the existing plant is fully occupied by four production lines, out of which one was installed in 4QFY15.
Tek Seng will be installing three new production lines in June 2016. All the capacities of these three new production lines (fifth to seventh line) and the fourth line will be fully taken up by a customer on a 5+5 tenure. We note that these four lines (total capacity: 350mw per annum) would have much lower margins (low single-digit profit after tax margin) than its other lines, but their profitability (estimated RM5 million to RM6 million per annum) after excluding minority interest is certain. Tek Seng can pass on any cost fluctuation (including labour) to its client since the latter has committed to a minimum take-up volume.
To recap, Tek Seng, in its recent placement, has allocated RM7 million to RM12 million for the acquisition of two solar cell manufacturing lines with a combined capacity of 140mw per annum. We understand that Tek Seng is currently in advanced negotiations with one of its existing clients to activate these two new production lines and the terms are expected to be finalised by early-3QFY16. Management expects these two production lines (eighth and ninth line) to be installed by end-FY16. All in, Tek Seng’s capacity is expected to reach 700mw per annum (from the current 300mw per annum) with nine production lines slated to come on stream by early-FY17.
Post the new capacity expansion discussed above, Tek Seng’s new plant would still have space for an additional five production lines. We understand that Tek Seng is exploring business opportunities to activate five new lines (10th to 14th line) with a US-headquartered client, that is a contract manufacturer for solar modules assembly and with plant facilities in Malaysia. We have not factored in any earnings from this potential expansion for now without a better clarity on the terms and timing.
Management guided that Tek Seng’s 1QFY16 solar cell average selling price stays firm at 38 US cents (RM1.50) per watt and will be sustainable through May. However, the selling price could soften to 36 US cents to 37 US cents per watt in June due to weaker wafer prices.
We are expecting a net profit compound annual growth rate of 40% between FY15 and FY18, with the solar segment being the key earnings growth driver. We estimate the solar segment would contribute 66%, 74% and 75% of Tek Seng’s net profit in FY15, FY16 and FY17 respectively.
The EU’s Feb 16 investigation outcome revealed that Tek Seng and its joint venture (JV) partner, Solartech Energy Corp, were not involved in the transhipment of China manufactured solar products from Malaysia and Taiwan to the EU, and hence, are exempted from the EU’s anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties. Based on the investigation results, we see minimal risk of a dramatic drop in demand due to anti-dumping related issues in the US.
2016-06-25 21:50
Tekseng on it's full swing to achieve the optimum scale of economy from their new facility plant.
Well support from order secured.
Bearing fruits in coming 6 mths / 2nd half 2016 .
2016-06-25 22:09
Venfx. it‘s a high growth stock. High potential of USD appreciation. PER is not over hyped. Of course, we got to bear the risks of higher gearing.
2016-06-25 22:17
Tekseng opt to be the champ in Solar Sector.
Sure he will, unstopable.
They know axactly what more important at what time to share the market pie before other get there.
2016-06-25 22:25
OTB. What a coincidence.... to meet your selection criteria. I was just sharing for what I know based on the facts. It's not easy to make a decision if we don't have sufficient information to justify the future potential of a company. I believe that solar power is a trend in meeting green energy demand. But I don't know how the share price would perform in short term. Thanks.
2016-06-25 23:09
Posted by stockmanmy > Jun 25, 2016 08:52 PM | Report Abuse
Still cannot run away from the fact there are 309 million shares and 78 million warrants outstanding..........so, what is the required earnings to support a PE of 10 after tax and non controlling interest?.
It's early to say that company will make pretax profits of. $100 million for sure.
They may have difficulty financing its capital commitment of $178 million.
Another right issue? Another private placement? More warrants
RAIDER SEE TEKSENG HAVE A VERY GOOD QUARTERLY RESULT, BUT WHY SHARE PRICE NOT PERFORMING ?....BUT INSTEAD CAME DOWN , DESPITE FEW INVESTMENT BANK PROMOTING THIS COUNTER ?
THE ANSWER IS PARTLY EXPLAIN BY STOCKMAMMY...!!
1. IT HAS HUGE CAPITAL BASE OF 309 MILLION SHARE AND 78 MILLION WARRANT MAH...!!
2. CAPITAL COMMITMENT AND GEARING ARE CONSIDER HIGH LOH..!!
3. WHETHER THE EARNINGS AND CASHFLOW MOMENTUM CAN BE SUSTAINED LEH ?
4. IT SHARE ALREADY HAS OUTPERFORMED WITHIN THE YEAR, RISING FROM AROUND RM 0.35 TO ABOUT RM 1.20....MORE THAN 3X GAIN LOH....!!
5. ALSO PLACEMENT SHARE AROUND RM 1.00 TO RM 1.06 OFFER A QUICK BUCK FOR THE PLACEMENT INVESTORS LOH...!!
RAIDER SAYS UNLESS THE EARNINGS CAN BE SUSTAINED AND THE CASHFLOW CAN BE SUSTAINED TO PAYDOWN BORROWING FOR THE NEXT 2 QUARTERS...THEN THIS STOCK CAN BE RERATED AND RALLY LOH....!!
RIGHT NOW....RAIDER SEE IT IS JUST TOUCH & GO LOH...!!
WHATEVER THE DIRECTION IT IS UNCERTAIN LOH.....!!
BTW RAIDER HAD A SMALL POSITION ON THIS STOCK LOH...!!
2016-06-25 23:27
1. IT HAS HUGE CAPITAL BASE OF 309 MILLION SHARE AND 78 MILLION WARRANT MAH...!!
2. CAPITAL COMMITMENT AND GEARING ARE CONSIDER HIGH LOH..!!
3. WHETHER THE EARNINGS AND CASHFLOW MOMENTUM CAN BE SUSTAINED LEH ?
4. IT SHARE ALREADY HAS OUTPERFORMED WITHIN THE YEAR, RISING FROM AROUND RM 0.35 TO ABOUT RM 1.20....MORE THAN 3X GAIN LOH....!!
5. ALSO PLACEMENT SHARE AROUND RM 1.00 TO RM 1.06 OFFER A QUICK BUCK FOR THE PLACEMENT INVESTORS LOH...!!
these are intelligent comments.....the real key is the share have went up a lot already and digesting the gains...the Company has to deliver before that share can go up again.
2016-06-26 09:23
so...can buy?
paperplane2016 > Jun 26, 2016 12:08 AM | Report Abuse
Just understand the mgt.
2016-06-26 09:23
No idea on how the share price movement. No ending if we want to discuss price up or down due to UMNO sacked Muhyddin, Brexit, Donald Trump, Crude oil price,.....
The cash call RNCPS RM 94.5 million was subscribed by Non-controlling interests in 1st Qtr 2015. It doesn't come from the shareholders of Tekseng other than the private placement RM 28.9 million.
Judging from the past track records of its ability to generate positive cash flow, it's reasonable make an assumption that TeckSeng would continue to do so in next few quarters.
Please throw your shares if you don't feel comfortable with its gearing level. Many investors are waiting to grab at cheaper price.
2016-06-26 12:48
solar cell industry.
this is not an industry for the pension funds and old ladies.
this is an industry with high bankruptcy rates and quick obsolescence with product prices halfing every few years. and technology changing very fast.
you better monitor properly.
2016-06-26 17:14
The sales can grow very fast, it can also diminish very fast. Need to be cautious.
2016-06-27 11:38
stockmanmy aka Desa2016 , your point way too pesimistic .
If, your assuming correct who will be the taker for thier private exercise.
2016-06-27 11:46
Who will investing in such companies?
Not the pension funds and old ladies.
Those who are brave and grazes on the outside.
2016-06-27 12:29
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If you exclude both Forex Gain and Compensation from supplier worth RM 9.8 million, PBT stood at RM 17.8 million which is much higher than RM 2.7 million reported in last year corresponding quarter. There is a reduction in gearing from 35% to 22% when you compare with 4th Qtr 2015 results from the private placement.
More important is Tekseng able to generate positive cash flow from operating activities RM 21.68 million before deducting purchase of P & M worth RM 10.1 million in the latest QR.
2016-06-25 20:06