Windy1974
Serba Dinamik: Top Favorite O&G Counter By Analysts
Serba Dinamik. A darling among analysts for O&G sector. Why? Well, if you look at Serba Dinamik's QR, you would be equally impressed too. While all O&G companies suffered due to the pandemics, Serba seems to be totally in a different league. Makes me wonder are we actually in the same industry or not? Is Serba really the star performer or something else? Now, if you are a share holder of Serba, i believe you should find out. Especially if you wanna invest long term believing in Serba's success stories.
Now, i gotta let you know i don't hold a grudge against Serba (never invested in Serba) or Serba's boss (Serba doesn't owe me money). While Serba was hot in 2019 when all eyes on O&G stocks, i didn't even have a second thought about investing in Serba. Even though many analysts, including Public Bank wrote highly about Serba.
Why? Because of some stories i heard from my managers. Also, from my own experience in O&G. As a businessman, i don't believe such badly managed company could command margin better than Dayang and numerous orders from middle east. Especially when better established Sapura struggled in middle east, what makes Serba profitable there with such bad management?
Below i have included links to analyst upbeat on Serba
Now, Serba came to my mind again 2 days ago because they were in the news again. Really? From O&G to property development in Abu Dhabi worth RM7.7B and now e-sports? What's next Serba?
Serba Dinamik in collaboration to develop Malaysian e-sports industry | The Edge Markets
So, i googled and see how's the development of their RM7.7B project awarded by Block 7 Investment LLC. After all, when this annoucement was made in April 2020, i was super sceptical. Really? With no contruction experience and awarded RM7.7B project? Now, this smells fishy right? But analysts no questions leh. Why?
Now, when i googled, 2 interesting surfaced.
1. Apparently, Dato’ Dr Ir Mohd Abdul Karim Bin Abdullah owns Block 7?? Now, this is interesting right? Was it ever revealed in their April 2020 announcement? Isn't this related party transaction?? You can read from link below
ZonesCorp, Block 7 Investments ink deal on 820,000m2 R&D hub | PROJECTS | MEP Middle East
2. I found Block 7 Investment LLC becomes inactive or dissolved. Now, is this the same Block 7?? You can find from link below.
BLOCK 7 INVESTMENTS LLC :: Oklahoma (US) :: OpenCorporates
If this is really true, are there more dirts under the carpet?
Adding further. Now, while i was focusing on Serba, i neglected SCIB which has ehem some related shareholder too. Interestingly, you would find most SCIB contracts come from Middle East and if you try google those companies that award the contract, they have 1 similarity. You can't find much info about those companies that could award hundred of millions contract. I can assure you my company is much smaller and you could find more info on google than them haha.
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3 people like this. Showing 34 of 34 comments
SSlee. Haha, i really don't understand statutory. However, right hand awards left hand? Would you buy my company because my left hand award my right hand company RM100B contract?
2021-05-03 16:16
i can have as many zero at the back as i want. If at the end it's all just on paper
2021-05-03 16:17
“The RM7.7 billion worth of Abu Dhabi innovation hub project is currently at the engineering and design stage and construction work should commence in 2H21 [second half of 2021]. Piling work for the RM1.5 billion data centre project has started in April and construction work should accelerate in 2H21 as well.
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/serba-dinamiks-steady-trajectory-likely-continue-driven-strong-orderbook-replenishments-ict
2021-05-04 00:05
MiaoMiao7. Exactly as i read in theedge. Are you a shareholder of Serba? If yes, you should ask Serba to clarify the 2 points highlighted?
1. Is the Dato really the owner of Block7? If yes, it was not disclosed in the news.
2. If Block 7 being dissolved, very soon you will receive a news on cancellation of RM7.7B project. You wanna find out later or now?
2021-05-04 09:39
price is slipping from 1.95+ to current 1.65 level { -16% } don't expect this counter to move
2021-05-04 09:45
Dear author, can you justify your statement on "stories heard from managers"?
2021-05-04 15:46
Souljaboiiii. Sorry, i can't justify as i won't elaborate here. I am in O&G business and i am not here to make Serba my enemy. Simple thing is for Serba shareholder to query Serba management why it was not revealed Karim interest in Block 7? And if Block 7 info being "dissolved" true?
Just as i can't justify to you Dayang and Sapura are well managed company. It's all from personal experience. You can never judge management of company on audited account. i3 forum can be a more productive place if forumers from their industry can contribute their expertise instead of just chanting up or down
2021-05-04 15:59
Open corporates say the company dissolved on or before 9 March 2021. Then they sign a contract (after dissolution) with Zones Corporation on or around 25 April 2021. Is it for real or is it a case of "anything also can"?
2021-05-04 19:13
i have added some additional comments targeting SCIB in my blog. When you find regularity in irregularities, you need to work on me. I believe this is what audit 101 teaches which i failed in UNI haha
2021-05-04 20:03
when I read until the part that says serba is an O&G counter. I stopped reading. didnt even do his homework before posting a blog
2021-05-05 08:27
Q7.With such a fast expansion, how will the Company’s cash flow and debt level be affected? How will the Company handle the negative free cash flow and when is the estimate turnover period for the free cash flow to become positive?
A7.En. Azhan replied that the order book of the Company had grown tremendously over the years, resulting in higher working capital and debt level. The Company will work on managing the balance sheet better by observing the internal policy on debt level, gearing level and net leverage. SDHB will continuously seek advice and feed backs from various parties and advisers to properly manage the Company’s finances. En. Azhan explained that there were two main (2) components affecting the free cash flow, particularly financing the growth of the Company and order book,as well as utilisation of CAPEX. He said that since the IPO, the Company had invested in developing its own centres, i.e. Bintulu Integrated Energy Hub (“BIEH”) and Pengerang Eco-Industrial Park(“PeIP”). Furthermore,the recent acquisition of Teluk Ramunia Yard would enhance the capabilities of the Company. En. Azhan updated that BIEH development had been completed and will commence operation by2021.He said those three (3) developments had contributed some impact on the negative cash flow but it would improve by2021
2021-05-05 09:07
SSlee. What's the funding gotta do with my 2 concerns on Serba?
My concern is whether the project or contracts are genuine or not and not funding.
When i read listed company annoucements, 1 very fast way for me to conclude whether i should further study the potential are contents of the announcements. In general, reputable companies would annouced contract awarded by which company right? Those that don't provide names or with names i can't find much information with google, then i immediately conclude it's fishy.
So, Ageson annouced billion dollar sand contract but the awarder can't find much info online. I say they are conman. Vivocon annouced huge sand contract too but it's a reputable china company. So, i am not sure whether it's a con job not. I did buy.
In fact, even though i am not an accountant, 1 way to find out is by cashflow and debtors. If show profit but all stuck inside debtors or low cash flow, it's a warning sign
2021-05-05 15:05
I am not smart but if truly the company got hanky panky, why would Karim increase his holdings by 10%? If he sense the company got no future, dont you think the first thing he wont do is to buy more shares via open market and PP? Action speaks louder than words.
And also EPF increased their holding up to 17%? EPF sure did their homework and visited those sites, right? People have been saying this since the IPO on their projects in middle east, yet they still pay dividend, 30% of NP.
If Elon Musk never sold any of his tesla shares during those turbulence years or even cash out right after the IPO, what does it say? And what does it says when a founder like Tan Sri Lim kept on buying TG shares? Is shows they are confident in the company and knows it will make more money in the coming quarters or future, how the market price the shares is another story.
2021-05-05 21:09
MiaoMiao7. I agree with your arguement. Typical dodgy company, the controlling shareholder won't increase their shareholding substantially. However, i had a check via Bursa Malaysia company annoucement and the only news i saw on Karim actually was him selling shares, not buying. Now, i presume your arguement on Karim buying is via simply wall street? I have seen reports in simply wall street. I believe simply wall street reports are done by AI. My understanding, could be wrong, any majority shareholders with more than 5% need to inform Bursa for any buying or selling of shares. I can see EPF, KWSP but not Karim. You can use link below to find any companies official annoucements
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement?keyword=&cat=&sub_type=&company=5279&mkt=&alph=&sec=&subsec=&dt_ht=&dt_lt=
As on your arguement about EPF done their due diligence. I am not EPF so i can't confirm but i doubt they do that. Even analysts that write report, most based their report on company management guidance. Eg. if you bought Yong Tai based on analysts optimistic reports, you would have lost your pants/dress. Simply because Yong Tai management has an optimistic projections on visitors number for Impression Melaka? Now, i am not in tourism business but i can count 5 fingers successful tourist attractions in Malaysia? I don't blame those analysts because most are young fresh graduates. (Hopefully not paid by anyone to write reports. This is fake news ok)
As on TG, i agree TG is a good company. However, worth buy or not depends on valuation at certain price. I don't post many comments and you can see that i suggest forumers to allocate 10% of their investment to glove companies in April due to uncertainty of covid. As on TG boss buying his shares, now this is my personal speculation. I speculate he did it because TG almost became biggest company in Bursa. It's an ego thing. Otherwise, why did he buy most when TG price was at the peak and his purchase reduced during March/April low? TG is a good company which i am monitoring
2021-05-06 11:01
@Windy1974
Karim sold his Serba warrant, not Serba mother share.
Even in here i3 got the info, he sold warrant, buy mother share. Click on the magnifier icon.
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchdr/5279.jsp
He bought so much during march. From 18-Feb-2021 to 18-Mar-2021, karim bought 36,300,000 via Open Market. Let's say his average price is 1.60, thus RM58,080,000
and then 56,292,000 on 02 Feb via PP, forgot what was the PP price, RM1.50?
Karim spend about RM90,380,000 buying Serba's share.
Almost RM100 million, no CEO with insider knowledge knowing something bad is about to happen will spend RM100m to buy shares in the company. This is logic, right? I dont have evidence, maybe you are right, only time will tell. We'll know in a few quarters.
Now that most of the major projects are almost completed, such as Teluk Rumania, it will generate positive cash flow. But this doesn't mean investor will price it highly.
As for TG, Tan Sri Lim probably should not have said they will be the biggest company in Bursa, and he probably told many of his friends to invest and TG will hit RM30, which it almost did. It was ego that made him bought those shares.
Yes, analysts make visits to the company and the company will show them the best. EPF is not always right also. Time will tell.
But RM100 million by Karim is a vote of confidence.
2021-05-06 20:32
MiaoMiao7. Yes, you are right. You mentioned 1 past month so i didn't check earlier annoucements. I didn't add up the total accumulation but indeed thaat's a lot. So, this is a positive to Serba shareholders. How about my arguements below? Does it make sense?
1. Why Serba never revealed Karim's interest in the RM7.7B project? Now, as a married man, if i am seeing other woman and didn't tell my wife, my wife gonna be pissed with me and gonna question me why i didn't tell her if i got nothing to hide? From my findings, Efire or whatever has a authorised capital of USD10m. Now, from my limited dealings with bank, no way even to get RM700m loan. How to finance the construction? Also, this is a private project, not government, so means if noone buys, it could fail. So there are execution and business risk even if contract is genuine. Agree?
2. Block 7 Investment showed dissolved. Unless it's a different company. That's not for me to find out as i have no Serba shares.
3. I can't remember whether it was 2019 or 2020 but i believe it was during pandemic. I saw news of Serba in CNBC. Now, CNBC is an American business news network that i go daily. Naturally, i was super impressive. The title was like "Serba ventures into VR for O&G". After clicked into the news, it was about Serba having a amusement like VR park which i saw in Genting. Then, i realised it was a SPONSORED CONTENT. Now, why on earth Serba wanna waste such money on such contents? Ego like Tan Sri Lim of TG?
The other company which i regularly saw SPONSORED CONTENT during pandemic was Green Packet. That time it was selling for RM1. You know how much the share price now? The sponsored content was in THEEDGE. Why on earth GPacket wanna waste such money in THEEDGE? For benefit of shareholders? I think i know the answer. Do you? And do you agree with me it's fishy?
2021-05-07 13:19
Btw, just to let you know, Teluk Ramunia won't see immediate financial impact for Serba. It's meant for Serba to bid for EPCC job in Malaysia just like Sapura, MMHE, Muhibahh in West Malaysia and Oceanmight (KKB) and Brooke Dockyard in East Malaysia. Teluk Ramunia can cater for small well head typically RM100-200m in value. The most, it could generate RM300m - 400m if Serba sapu all. It's a big deal for companies like Oceanmight (KKB) but kacang putih for Serba's current market cap. Also, it's something that Serba has zero experience. You don't become expert overnight.
Now that most of the major projects are almost completed, such as Teluk Rumania, it will generate positive cash flow. But this doesn't mean investor will price it highly.
2021-05-07 13:27
Just like you, I dislike those sponsored articles in theedge. I dont have an answer to that and I dont know what is the purpose.
Also I dont know why Karim never revealed it is a RPT.
I dont own any Serba's share but I do monitor it. If indeed Karim can deliver as promised, then Serba has the potential to grow big.
At least I see a CEO that is actively growing the company, building connections and venturing into new business. Earning Growth is the key, which Karim understood very well. Nobody wants a CEO like YTL, they couldn't bother to take more risk to grow the company. risk and reward.
Who knows, maybe one day Serba will enter KLCI30.
Someone shared this in the Serba forum, you probably saw it too.
https://www.accesswire.com/645576/Data-Knights-Acquisition-Corp-Announces-Pricing-of-100000000-Initial-Public-Offering-and-Nasdaq-Listing
It is a SPAC? Maybe Karim plans to spin off part of the IT division and list it in Nasdaq?
2021-05-07 19:46
Serba Dinamik to list on Nasdaq via Data Knights
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:rBNTAAXk4XUJ:https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/05/07/serba-dinamik-to-list-on-nasdaq-via-data-knights+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=my&client=firefox-b-d
2021-05-07 21:27
@Windy1974
https://local.infobel.ae/AE100448968/block_7_investments_llc-abu_dhabi.html
could the company be dissolved in the US and re-incorporated again in Abu Dhabi through a JV of Efire and Serba?
2021-05-08 14:27
shorter. Not much info was revealed about Block 7 by the annoucement in April 2020. If indeed it's a Abu Dhabi registered Block 7 awarded the contract, then it's not dissolved. Your link only showed an Abu Dhabi address and not much else. A US registered company and one registered in Abu Dhabi would be a different entity. You can't transfer rights like that.
2021-05-08 18:58
Hi, after heard ur analysis, I got few quastions.... How is the structure in between Serba, block 7 and efire? Serba I can get a lot of info here, efire's website still got a bit of information (really a bit), block 7 just a page with an email address and phone number
2021-05-18 02:57
Kuangyoa. I got my info by googling. I didn't do comprehensive analysis on Serba since i don't intend to own any Serba shares. The relationship between efire, block 7 and serba was found in news via googling. However, when Serba annouced in April 2020, Serba never mentioned their relationship. You could only find out this information in much later news thru middle east news report. I personally will question such irregularity. This is not proof of wrong doing.
2021-05-18 11:53
Windy1974. Thanks for ur questions.That is a good way for us to check detaily the company we invest.
I just asking my senior regrading those relationship between Serba, Efire and Block 7. JV with local company is fulfill the term and condition of icv to award a contract at UAE (like Bumiputera company in Malaysia).
2021-05-18 16:53
KUALA LUMPUR (May 25): Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd said today it is commencing a special independent review after its board of directors was informed by its external auditors on some matters pertaining to statutory audit.
"The board is in the midst of appointing an independent firm to commence a special independent review to assess the veracity and accuracy of the matters.
"An updated announcement will be made upon the finalisation of the said appointment of the independent firm," it said in a bourse filing today.
2021-05-25 21:52
I oredi said. Job in midle east very risky. A very good example is ZELAN. oso a darling among investor n fund managersm must own stock. A lot of projects in midle east. Now where is zelan. Haha
2021-05-30 11:22
windy1974, that is many sign before this scandal happen, only hard working & smart investor will be able to found these sign before other does, this is good case study for how to protect your investments.
thanks!
2021-05-30 23:40
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Sslee
Serba Dinamik RMC FZE ^^ United Arab Emirates
^^ The subsidiary is exempted from statutory audit as permitted by the authority in the relevant country
So Serba Dinamik 100% owned UAE subsidiary account do not need statutory audit.
2021-05-03 16:11