THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

NYLEX - THE PLASTIC AND POLYMER STOCK THAT WILL BENEFIT THE MOST FROM FALLING CRUDE OIL PRICE.

calvintaneng
Publish date: Sun, 17 Jan 2016, 11:42 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,803
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

In Year 2014 when Crude Oil fell from US$120 a barrel to US$60 a barrel (drop 50%) I called for a buy on all plastic and rubber stocks, logistic stocks and all companies that will benefit from cheap crude oil.

I called for a buy on Super Enterprize at Rm1.25 as it will benefit because it manufacture plastic related material like stickers and plastic sign boards. Super turned supersonic and was later taken private at Rm3.80 (Up 200%)

Other plastic related stocks that did well are

BP Plastics     Its lowest and highest prices in 52 weeks are 82.5 cents & Rm1,96 (Up 137%)

Thong Guan.     Lowest & highest prices in 52 weeks ........Rm1.65  & Rm3.32  (Up 100%)

SKPRES.      Lowest  & highest prices in 52 weeks............71 cents   &   Rm1.58  (Up 122%)

VS INDUSTRY.  Lowest & highest prices in 52 wks.... Rm2.40    & Rm6.50  (Up 170%) Then split.

Most Plastic Related Stocks Have gone up 100%, 122%, 137%, 170% & even 200% due to the Crash of Crude Oil.

NYLEX Is The Only Laggard.  Lowest & highest prices in 52 weeks are  47 cents  &  63.5 cents.  Up a mere 35% only.

Last Friday Crude Oil has crashed below US$30 (Down another 50% from US$60)

So our focus is now on NYLEX - The Laggard Plastic Stock That Has The Greatest Potential for Upside!

These Are The Positive Factors for NYLEX

  1. Selling at 63.5 cents with NTA of Rm1.65 (A Whopping 62% Discount to NTA) Huge Margin of Safety. If Benjamin Graham & Walter Schloss are alive they both will load up on Nylex! Nylex qualifies as a Graham  Net Net VALUE Stock

2.  Forward P/E is  12.7 only. And Falling Crude Oil Will Spur Profits. So P/E should go to single digit.

3. Nylex also pay a consistent dividend yearly.

4. NYLEX EXPORTS 70% OF ITS PRODUCTS TO OVER 25 COUNTRIES WORLD WIDE

And With Cheaper Crude Oil & Weakened Ringgit Nylex is now very competitive. Nylex's Exports Will Accelerate Further With The Signing of TPP.

5. IMPENDING RELEASE OF OIL SUPPLY FROM IRAN WILL FURTHER DEPRESS OIL PRICES - ANOTHER POWERFUL BOOSTER FOR NYLEX'S PROFITS!

6. Dr NEOH SOON KEAN, The Benjamin Graham of Malaysia Has Loaded Up 1.1 Million Nylex Shares!

In the Latest Annual Report of NYLEX A New Investment Firm Has Appeared Among Nylex Top 30 Substantial Share Holders - The Well Known Name in Malaysian  Investment Circles - DYNAQUEST SDN BHD

Coming in at 11th Place with 1.1  MILLION Shares is DYNAQUEST SDN BHD.

7. Who Is Dr Neoh Soon Kean and What are His Successes In Investments?

In Years 1983 to 1984 Dr Neoh wrote an Investment Column for the Sunday Mail. Every time his Stock Write up recommendations appeared on Sunday Mail, the next day when trading started on monday  Investors snapped up his recommended shares with great delight. Subsequent years proved the uncanny accuracy of his stock picks. Some of his stock picks have garnered 5 baggars, 10 baggars, 20 baggars or more. Many early investors have turned into  millionaires, and not a few into multi millionaires!

Years later I started subscribing his Monthly Digest (now discontinued). I have selected 6 Recommended Stocks by Dr. Neoh  from the January 2009 Edition (Exactly 7 years ago) to SEE how they performed:

PREVIOUSLY SELECTED STOCKS

STOCK.......NAME.........PRICE at Jan. 9th, 09.............................REMARKS..........................

CODE

7171 ........CENBOND..........0.40 cents....................Attractive valuations from the two commonly used fundamental yardsticks P/E multiple of <5x and a DY of 10% (I followed Dr Neoh and bought Cenbond at 45 cents)

8125........DAIBOCHI...........0.495 cents................A recovery stock EPS bottomed out in 1H05 and continued to improve in the subsequest quarters. Currently, trading at a prospective P/E multiple of <5x and a very high DY of 14%

3883,,,,,,,,,MUDA..................0.60...............................Turned around in 1Q07. Currently, trading at a prospective P/E multiple of 3x and a DY of 5% nett and has a very high operating cash flow/price. (I picked up Muda from 60 cts to 35 cts)

7095..........PIE........................Rm3.70...............................Record earnings and sales for FY07. On an average compounded basis, its EPS grew at 35% and 12% over the last 5 & 10 years, respectively. It gives a relatively high DY of 7% nett and has a strong balance sheet with not only zero borrowings but also cash in hand of Rm1.33 per share as at 30.9.08

Note: PIE gives excellent dividends yearly and in PIE Latest Annual Report Dr Neoh is in Top 30 Shareholders of PIE.Coming in at No. 19 with 415,800 shares is Neoh Choo Ee & Company. PIE is now Blue Chip at Rm10.36

7155.........SKPRES...............0.095........(Amazing! only 9.5 cts)   Trading at a forward P/E of <4x  multiple and a DY of >5% nett. These may be regarded as undemanding valuation.

Note: I bought SKPRES between 12 cents to 14 cents. You see, I can't get SKPRES at 9.5 cents as Dr Neoh has thousands of other subscribers who received his Monthly Digest earlier than me. And I lived in Singapore. So I always pay a slightly higher price. I know of One Investor whom I called my Johor Sifu. His remisier told me the way my Johor Sifu bought shares is like fighting for "family inheritance". He really wallop & wallop Dr Neoh's recommended shares.

His favourite phrase is, "If you find a really good share; don't just nibble. YOU MUST HAMMER IT!!"

At current closing price of Rm1.39 SKPRES is up over 1,300% or a 13 BAGGARS!!

This year at least 5 Malaysian Research Houses included SKPRES as their Top 10 Picks for Year 2016.

 

7034..........TGUAN..............0.72..............A stretch film producer with EPS growing at an average compounded rate of 5.2% per annum  for the last 10 years. A beneficiary of the current bearish crude oil prices as its main raw material (resin) is a product of crude oil.

Note: In Thong Guan 2013 Annual Report Dr Neoh is in Top 5, 16, & 25 with a total of 2.51 Million Thong Guan Shares.

However, in 2014 Annual Report he has pared down his shares to only 1.26 million shares. That means that Dr Neoh has sold 50% Thong Guan Shares into strength. And bought into the laggard NYLEX!

In Year 1985 Dr. Neoh wrote a Book called STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT IN MALAYSIA AND SINGAPORE

It begins with these words,

"This book is dedicated to the memory of Benjamin Graham"

By inculcating the spirit and wisdom of Benjamin Graham over 30 years DR NEOH SOON KEAN HIMSELF IS TODAY THE VERY EMBODIMENT AND SPIRIT OF BENJAMIN GRAHAM

YES! DR NEOH SOON KEAN IS THE BENJAMIN GRAHAM OF MALAYSIA!

LONG LIVE VALUE INVESTING! LONG LIVE BENJAMIN GRAHAM!

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3 people like this. Showing 16 of 16 comments

paperplane2016

Sthis is what I think also. But read from latest quarter report, they don't really benefit from it. Their customers asked for a lower selling price instead. So I guess they have no pricing power?

2016-01-17 23:47

Icon8888

Just a little bit concerned... PER more than 12 times... Hmmm

2016-01-17 23:51

Ven Felix

That's why it didnt even in my wacth list .

2016-01-17 23:52

Ezra_Investor

Low Profitability, but High Net Debt.
Inconsistent FCF is also an issue...
Plus high valuation... hmm....

2016-01-17 23:54

Icon8888

hmmm...

2016-01-17 23:54

Ven Felix

SCGM are far more energetic.

2016-01-17 23:55

calvintaneng

Look at Management report. They secured MRT construction projects in Singapore. Singapore will be building more extension lines this year. With falling crude oil & strong US & Singapore Dollars profits will improve. So be forward looking.

2016-01-17 23:57

Ven Felix

Thay juz aint fair on price.

2016-01-17 23:57

Ven Felix

Noted. Calvintaneng .thx for the highlight

2016-01-17 23:59

calvintaneng

Another factor is NTA. Value can come from improved earnings & NTA. NTA now Rm1.65. At 63.5 cents there is a Rm1.00 discount.

And its assets have not been revalued yet. If revalued NTA should cross.

Another factor which meets Dr Neoh requirement is dividend.

A cow for its milk;
Bees for their honey
And a share, by golly;
For its dividend

2016-01-18 00:01

thesteward

time for laggards to perform...nylex...
hopefully also penta

2016-01-18 00:03

calvintaneng

One more thing.

Last time my Johor Sifu recommended Pintaras Jaya at Rm1.40.

And I gave him Kumpulan Fima at 35 cents.
Kumpulan Fima was selling at 35 cents with NTA over Rm1.00.

However, the earnings were erratic and FCF not so clear then.

When KFima became clear and certain it is no longer cheap now at Rm1.79

When things were still blur blur SKPRES Sold For 9.5 cents & few bothered.

Now that SKPRES are so popular and Clear people are chasing at Rm1.39. Already up 1,300%

5 Research Houses recommend Skpres as Top 10 picks for year 2106. Do you expect Skpres to go up another 1,000%

You must SEE beyond the now to the FUTURE PROSPECTS.

Over a short time the share market is a voting machine but over a Longer Period the Stock Market turns into a weighing machine.

2016-01-18 00:12

calvintaneng

Should read as

If the Assets of NYLEX Are Revalued NTA Should Cross Rm2.00

And in Year 2016 More than 5 Research Houses picked SKPRES in their Top 10 Recommended Stocks.


Skpres picked by Dynaquest Sdn Bhd at only 9.5 cents in January 2009.

Now at Rm1.39, already up 1,300% a 13 baggars. Think it can go up another 1,300%?

Good night everybody.

Please invest carefully.

Regards,

Calvin

ZZZzzzz...

2016-01-18 00:18

ckwan11d

Noted.

2016-01-18 04:49

calvintaneng

Good morning everybody,

NYLEX Is Another Kumpulan Fima in earnings pattern.

When things were not so clear KFima was Sold at a DISCOUNT = 35 cents (Year 2009)
When things are So Visible & clear KFima sold at a Premium = Rm2.50 (Year 2012)

Below is the 10 Year Lowest & Highest Traded Prices of KFima (MARCH 2009: SPG)

YEAR.....Lowest Price.....Highest price........EPS (Earnings per share).

1999.........0.33..........2.18................-30..
2000.........0.50..........2.54................-7.7
2001.........0.30..........0.63................3.9
2002.........0.20..........0.72................-29
2003.........0.33..........0.61................2.8
2004.........0.34..........0.56................5.2
2005.........0.39..........0.61................8.2
2006.........0.45..........0.81................12.8
2007.........0.53..........0.98................11.5
2008.........0.33..........0.68................11.5
2009.........0.35..........0.46................13.0E (Expected closing price)

These are the Free Cash Flow (FCF) statistics for KFima

Year 2006 (-14.28%), 2007 (-0.86%), 2008 (NA) NA = Not Available

And The NTA for Kfima

2006 (95 cents)...2007 (Rm1.05).....2008 (Rm1.09)

Can you SEE VALUE?

In year 2008 KFima low was 33 cents with NTA of Rm1.05 (Selling at Deep discount then)

However FCF was deplorable for both years 2007 & 2008 in negative territories.

So is NYLEX

At 63.5 cents with NTA of Rm1.65

We buy Nylex for VALUE over Growth.

And with falling Crude Oil & weak ringgit Growth Will Come Into Play Now.

So When Nylex has both VALUE & GROWTH What is Nylex's FUTURE?

For that you have to make your own decision.

Have a nice day

Regards,

Calvin

2016-01-18 08:49

Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥

NYLEX
JAN 2016 7.9 SEN PER SHARE
7TH MARCH 2024 24 SEN PER SHARE

2 months ago

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