THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Klse Future Down 22 points While CPO Future Up 20 points (CPO Saved the Day - Crisis After Crisis)

calvintaneng
Publish date: Tue, 26 Apr 2016, 09:00 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,859
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
  • FKLI / Apr 2016
    1691.00 (-22.00)Collapse
    High: 1713.50 Low: 1690.0
  • FCPO / Jul 2016
    2675.00 (+20.00)Expand
Futures/Months Last Change Vol
FCPO/Jul 2016 2675.00 +20.00 23,943
FKLI/Apr 2016 1691.00 -22.00 19,722
FKLI/May 2016 1684.50 -19.50 14,49

 

Calvin comments:

In 1997/8 when Many Companies & Idividuals went bankrupt Oil Palm saved the day. So was 2007/8 Lehman Brothers' Debacle. Oil Palm was the Saviour again.

So Oil Palm will continue to give protection in times of financial storm!

 

See the IMPORTANCE OF DIVERSIFICATION

Let Me Relate 3 True Stories:-

No.1) One Evening, after the plane landed at Changi Airport from Kuala Lumpur, I took a taxi home. Since the journey from Changi Airport to my place in  Jurong West takes about an hour, I decided to talk to the taxi driver regarding the latest  developement in Singapore.

As I was conversing with this  particular taxi driver I noticed that he looked different. So I said, “You don’t look at all like a taxi driver, you must have been a CEO or some  Big Time Business Man?” And I was right.

Then he shared his story. “Actually”, he says, “I am the Owner of An Import & Export Company In Singapore. Business has been very good and it’s growing bigger and bigger all the time.” “Why are you driving a taxi, then?”, I chipped in. “We recently sent a Consignment of Goods To The US. It Was One Of The Biggest Sale We Made – Worth US$20 Millions.

Then 911 STRUCK NEW YORK TWIN TOWERS. All our contacts with the Receiving Party in US were cut off, since their Office is in the TWIN TOWERS THAT COLLAPSED. We are not sure where the goods that we sent are currently located. At the same time our Creditors are chasing for payment. We don’t know what to do. At the moment I am driving a taxi to get cash  for daily expenses.”

No. 2) During the Asian Financial Crisis, everyone was trying to cut cost. Instead of staying in hotel, I moved to a house operated as a Home Stay for traveling salesman. It costs only rm30 a night with a/cond.

Here I met a young gentleman driving a gleaming Mercedes Benz. Curious I said,”You look like a well to do prosperous man of better means than to stay in this cheap place here?”. Then he told me his predicament. He shared with me that by age 22 he is already a millionaire. He started as a young apprentice doing electrical wiring for homes and offices.

One evening when his boss and colleague  had left he was still working into the wee hours of the night. He wanted to complete the job. The place was the Sultan’s Palace. When he was absorbed in his work, Datuk Ling Liong Sik walked in. Then followed by Datuk Samy Vellu. Seeing his hard work and dilligence both Cabinet Ministers gave him their Name Cards. And they told him to go to them if he needed help.

He went to see them, got some lucrative contracts and started his own company. Money just rolled in and in no time due to his hard work and dilligence he made his fortune.

However, he thought, “I only  my made my fortune by my connections. I wasn’t sure whether it was by my own ability?” So he decided to leave Malaysia for work in Singapore – where he is on his own without  any special connections. Alas! He said that the Singaporean Business men outsmarted him and he lost his entire fortune.

So he returned to Malaysia. Went for help again. This time he managed to get subcontract work for The Petronas Twin Towers In K.L.  Unfortunately, the Asian Financial Crisis Struck in 1997 and his Main Contractor ran away and did not pay him – estimated to be 2 Million ringgit.

However, his suppliers are chasing him for only RM200K worth of goods. That is the reason why he has to go into hiding. My advise was to tell him to be honest with his suppliers. After all the Petronas Twin Towers  Still Need to be completed, somehow.

I hope these two gentlemen turn out well.

3) Mr. Liew of HELANG CAMAR   hailed from Sabah. He started his Used Car Dealership in KL before the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997/98. His Used Car Business thrived in 1993-early 1997. He told me he still have half of his capital tied in the Oil Palm Plantation Lands in Sabah. He wanted to sell off his Plantation and put all the  capital into the booming Car Business. I advised him not to do it.

Then The Asian Financial Crisis Struck in End 1997. He told me his accumulated profits for 3 years were wiped out within 3 short months. And he is staring at further losses from Unsold Stock of Cars. However, his Oil Palm Fruit Bunches were fetching good prices. So his losses were cushioned by the Booming Palm Oil Prices.

By  May 2001 (4 years later) the Used Car Market Fully Recoverrd and he was doing well once again. However, Palm Oil Prices Crashed Below Production Cost!  The cost of fertilizer, worker’s wages and  overhead costs is more than the actual selling price of palm fruits. Trees were left idle, fertilizer sold back to supplier & workers retrenched. With the downturn of Palm Oil Prices he concentrated his energy on the Used Car Business.

You see, It Is Important To Diversify Investments Since We Cannot See The Future.

This entry was posted in Johor House For Sale. Bookmark the permalink.
 
Extra! Extra!
 
Amidst the gloom and doom of IMDB Debt Default There is A Bright Spot Today:
 
SEE
 

Tuesday, 26 April 2016 | MYT 11:22 AM

Fitch sees Asian palm oil sector improving

 
 
KUALA LUMPUR: Fitch Ratings forecasts an improving outlook for the Asian palm oil producers due to changes in supply and demand dynamics, pointing to higher prices for crude palm oil (CPO) in 2016.

The international ratings agency said on Tuesday that higher prices will be credit positive for producers as they will result in higher operating cash flows and improve CPO firms' credit profiles. 

“While this is supportive of a stable sector outlook, there is a high positive correlation between CPO and crude oil. As a result, Fitch believes that the outlook for the sector remains muted, though improving,” it said. 

The decline in CPO prices since April 2014 and consistent stock accumulation contributed to Fitch's initial negative sector outlook for 2016. Declining prices, in particular, resulted in CPO firms' funds from operations (FFO)-adjusted net leverage significantly increasing in 2015. 

 
 
Fitch now expects CPO prices in 2016 to average higher than in 2015 as global demand holds up and output falls in Indonesia and Malaysia as a result of especially dry El Nino-related weather conditions. 

“We expect the pre-export tax and levy CPO price to range between US$650 a tonne and US$700 a tonne this year,” it said. 

Fitch pointed out  production has fallen significantly in Malaysia, with output declining to an 18-month low of 1.04 million tonnes in February 2016. 

This dragged stocks down from a peak of 53 days in November 2015 to as low as 27 days in March. 

Industry association estimates in Indonesia also forecast a reduction in output there in 2016 - the first annual fall in production in at least 15 years. 

In Indonesia, domestic consumption is likely to increase substantially, which should also bolster global prices because less CPO is available for export. The Indonesian government has raised palm oil content in biodiesel to 20% in 2016, after increasing the blending rate to 15% in 2015 from 10%. 

The Indonesian government's imposition of a flat export levy of US$50 a tonne of CPO and US$30 a tonne of processed palm oil products from May 2015, coupled with a price-linked progressive export tax structure subject to a minimum reference price of US$750 a tonne, makes it more attractive for Indonesia-based CPO firms to cater to the domestic market. 

“Should the government's reference price rise above US$750/tonne, the levy will still apply, but the total amount an exporter pays will not exceed the applicable export tax. The export levy is meant to compensate for loss of export tax revenues, should the CPO reference price fall below US$750/tonne and to fund biodiesel subsidies.

“It is important to note, though, that CPO prices depend on both industry supply-demand dynamics and the global economic environment. CPO prices have historically exhibited high positive correlation with crude oil because CPO is used as a biodiesel input. Therefore, a renewed or sustained downturn in crude oil prices would likely be a drag on CPO prices,” it said.
 

TAGS / KEYWORDS:Corporate News , Plantations , palm oil , oil palm

 

 

 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 15 of 15 comments

Invest1188

hi calvin, cbip and wtk not looking good after 1 month already, time is running out

2016-04-26 21:17

Invest1188

after review wtk property list, does not look amazing, many leasehold lands going to expire and few shoplots, for big company, few shoplots are notthig to shout about, I am afraid more on his management and earning consistency, the record not so good if look at the past 5yrs, taan will be better

2016-04-26 21:19

calvintaneng

Posted by Invest1188 > Apr 26, 2016 09:17 PM | Report Abuse

hi calvin, cbip and wtk not looking good after 1 month already, time is running out


Invest1188
232 posts
Posted by Invest1188 > Apr 26, 2016 09:19 PM | Report Abuse

after review wtk property list, does not look amazing, many leasehold lands going to expire and few shoplots, for big company, few shoplots are notthig to shout about, I am afraid more on his management and earning consistency, the record not so good if look at the past 5yrs, taan will be better

Calvin replies:

Today Market is down but both Wtk & Cbip didn't drop much.

And in bursa filing today CBIP Insider has notify Bursa his intention to trade. Let's wait and SEE then.

DEALINGS IN LISTED SECURITIES (CHAPTER 14 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS) : INTENTION TO DEAL DURING CLOSED PERIOD

CB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT HOLDING BERHAD

Type Announcement
Subject DEALINGS IN LISTED SECURITIES (CHAPTER 14 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS)
INTENTION TO DEAL DURING CLOSED PERIOD
Description CB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT HOLDING BERHAD ("CBIP")
- NOTIFICATION OF INTENTION TO DEAL IN SECURITIES BY DIRECTOR DURING CLOSED PERIOD
In compliance with Paragraph 14.08 of the Main Market Listing Requirements of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad, CBIP wishes to announce that CBIP has received notification from a Director of his intention to deal in securities of CBIP during the closed period.

The name and current interests of the Director in the securities of CBIP are disclosed in the table below.

Name



Ordinary Shares

Warrants

No. of Shares

%

No. of Warrants

%

Lim Chai Huat

22,170,000

4.23

3,695,000

4.23

2016-04-26 21:24

moneySIFU

Invest1188, did paperplane say that lousy company? I guess he never say that to calvin even though that's real lousy company, bcos they are best friends.

2016-04-26 21:26

Invest1188

I see no reason for wtk to revalue the property as most of them leasehold, afraid lower price after revalue and dun be surprise the palm oil is still losing as the cost is higher, see united plantation yesterday report

2016-04-26 21:34

calvintaneng

Posted by moneySIFU > Apr 26, 2016 09:26 PM | Report Abuse

Invest1188, did paperplane say that lousy company? I guess he never say that to calvin even though that's real lousy company, bcos they are best friends.

Best friends?

Very good!

We should make more friends here in i3 forum

2016-04-26 21:36

Invest1188

Calvin, last qtr poh huat management olso did same announcement insider trading, but now end up trending down with director disposal

2016-04-26 21:37

Invest1188

Dun be too optimistic with 1 or 2 qtrs result especially with small company, seenwhat happen to pensonic today

2016-04-26 21:40

calvintaneng

Invest1188 I see no reason for wtk to revalue the property as most of them leasehold, afraid lower price after revalue and dun be surprise the palm oil is still losing as the cost is higher, see united plantation yesterday report
26/04/2016 21:34

Never mind if you are not comfortable with WTK

There is CBIP!

2016-04-26 21:40

calvintaneng

Invest1188

Calvin, last qtr poh huat management olso did same announcement insider trading, but now end up trending down with director disposal
26/04/2016 21:37

Invest1188,

I bought Pohuat long ago at only 40 cents when Dr Neoh recommended it in his monthly digest. I have also taken profit and didn't look back.

The story of furniture theme stock is long over. Don't catch the tail of this passing bull now.

THE THEMATIC PLAY FOR 2016, 2017 & 2018

WILL STILL REVOLVE AROUND PALM OIL STOCKS.

I just spoke to One Oil Palm Guy in Mentakab, Pahang by phone.

Prices of FFB are up but not much production. By September 2016 he expects a bountiful harvest.

And so I am still buying and nibbling oil palm stocks.

2016-04-26 21:51

Invest1188

when the output increase, palm oi price will drop, for last 5 yrs,planters have been clearing land and expanding palm oil land wit double digit increase, but population increase is only single digit percent, I believe when more new palm oil mature in this 1 or 2yrs, there will be high supply , when palm oil price as good in 2011,all plant oil palm, now 2016, the supply is coming

2016-04-26 22:04

calvintaneng

Palm oil price will remain high BECAUSE El Nino & La Nina have wiped off soy, maize and corn oil from the surface of the earth.

2016-04-26 22:15

calvintaneng

Invest1188 when the output increase, palm oi price will drop, for last 5 yrs,planters have been clearing land and expanding palm oil land wit double digit increase, but population increase is only single digit percent, I believe when more new palm oil mature in this 1 or 2yrs, there will be high supply , when palm oil price as good in 2011,all plant oil palm, now 2016, the supply is coming
26/04/2016 22:04


Output increase?

Palm oil price will drop?

Don't worry lah!

Palm Oil price will shoot past the roof when there is no competition from soy, maize or other oils after drought wiped them all away.

See my next post

2016-04-26 22:17

Invest1188

ok agree with you

2016-04-26 22:35

titus

Any durian counter? Fama just reported Durian yield drop by 40-50% due to elnino. I believed price will definitely go up. This time really durian drop. :)

2016-04-27 16:31

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