THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
While AirAsia is sitting on One Time Debt Bomb AAX Has Two Time Debt Bombs (Calvin Tan Research)
calvintaneng
Publish date: Wed, 23 Nov 2016, 07:59 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,832
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Hi Guys especially my good friend AyamTua & Mango Juice (Fortunebullz),
I have told you guys to sell AAX. Have you done so?
Now here are the reasons why AAX is sitting on Time Bombs Twice that of AirAsia
The Total Fleet of AAX Planes now flying are
6 AirBus A330 300 in Thialand
2 AirBus A330 300 in Indonesia
21 AirBus A330 300 in Malaysia
What is the cost of these 29 AirBus A330 300?
See Price List
AIRBUS AIRCRAFT 2016
AVERAGE LIST PRICES (millions of US$)
A318 ......... 75.1
A319............ 89.6
A320............ 98.0
A321........................ 114.9
A319neo...... 98.5
A320neo............. 107.3
A321neo........................... 125.7
A330-200 .............................................231.5
A330-800neo............................................................... 252.3
A330-200. Freighter................................... 234.7
A330-300.............................................................................. 256.4
A330-900neo......................................................................................................... 287.7
A350-800.............................................................................................. 272.4
A350-900 ..................................................................................................................................308.1
A350-1000.................................................................................................................................................... 355.7
A380-800........................................................................................................................................................................................ 432.6 P
Ha! The List Price of an AirBus A330 300 is US$256.4 Million (Twice that of AirBus 320neo used by AirAsia)
How much in Ringgit Term?
So US$256.4 Mil x 4.41 = Rm1.130 Billion per plane
So 29 planes = Rm32.770 BILLION
But if you look at the latest QR of AAX you will notice that AAX
Refer to Quarter Report Note 32 of AAX report:
Aircraft purchase ..............................................................................................Rm 110,072,599,000
Why so much debt? Rm110 BILLION
Now you can SEE that latest Qr Revenue is only Rm1 Billion with a miniscule profit of only Rm11 million (How to cover real depreciation of each AirBus A330 300?)
So AAX is literally sitting on a Huge Time Debt Bomb!
Now you guys better listen to Calvin and don't suffer the same fate like those in Sumatech, VSolar, XOX & IFCA
You all are my friends. I don't want any harm to come to you or anyone in i3 Forum
All for or against Calvin please listen.
Calvin's heart is big enough to love my friends, my enemies, my harshest critic, those fence sitters, experts, sifu, sorchai, water fish, sotong, ikan bilis & everybody in i3 Forum
Love, love, love everybody
Your Friend
Calvin Tan
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 50 of 150 comments
calvin, i must say your megan media story is quite entertaining.
however u forgot to mention an extra thing.
theres another rat faking to be a lion...and thats you
great pretender
2016-11-24 15:22
Calvin,
How do you arrive at 7.5% depreciation?
Please refer to AAX Annual Report 2015 Notes 2(e).
Depreciation for aircraft engine and airframe is 25 yrs.
Residual value for engine and airframe as stated in following page is 10% of cost.
Calculation for Depreciation is therefore
= Cost x (100% - 10% residual) / 25
= Cost x 90% / 25
= Cost x 3.6%
Your 7.5% depreciation (double that of the effective depreciation rate) is actually misinformation.
AAX leases most of its aircraft. That is why you see less depreciation but high operating lease expense.
2016-11-24 16:03
comet thats why i said he is a fake analyst lo....
his figures are just learned from the wikipedias n just plucked from the skies without proper knowledge.
he compares hubline/ifca with an airline company...what level of intellect do u guys honestly think he has?
2016-11-24 16:24
Further, I would like to clarify why Calvin's cost of the aircraft at list price is wrong.
Refer to http://airinsight.com/2016/05/16/aircraft-pricing-list-vs-market/
Actual market price contracted for each A330-300 is not 256.4. NO ONE will pay list price! At minimun, it is sold at 109.5m each (more than half of the list price you had quoted). How much AAX (or rather AAC contracted at, we dont know but definitely not 256.4m each)
Further, lower cost would translate to lower depreciation if AAX had purchased (instead of lease) all aircraft, their depreciation + lease expense will be much lower than current level. Thats why AAC is making profit from leasing aircraft to AAX and other AA companies.
In summary, even at this higher level of lease expense (as compare to lower depreciation had they owned all 29 aircraft), AAX is still able to cover all these lease expenses with a net profit in 4 successive quarters.
2016-11-24 16:32
Calvin does not have any Financial Certification. I think he may also confuse. Normally, when you look about paying debt, people look at Cash Flow and not Profit.
Why ? Because in the Profit statement, the cost of the planes had already factored in by the use of Depreciation.
You have this formula.
Profit Before Tax = Revenue - Operation Cost - Depreciation - Finance Cost - Currency Exchange Loss.
Cashflow = Profit After Tax + Depreciation.
So, frankly, the depreciation cost is converted into cash-in-flow for AAX and is being used to service the debt.
So, what is Profit After Tax actually ? Profit After Tax is actually the amount of money that can be distributed to all shareholders , free from any encumbrances.
Now, AAX current debt is only RM 1 billion at most.
2016-11-24 18:22
AAX actually lease a lot of aircraft , it is better for AAX to buy the aircraft because leasing cost will reduce. And AAX can use depreciation cost to pay for debt.
2016-11-24 18:27
AAX got 29 planes but 20 are leased. So, can terminate lease agreement anytime if AAX purchase new planes.
2016-11-24 18:30
Calvin is on cloud nine.
I hit jackpot on Insas!
Another chun chun call by Calvin Tan Research
As for the 29 A330 300 planes.
They are non-cancellable! Go see Qr note 32a.
You better run fast fast from AAX
A = Aiyoo
A = Aiyoo
X = eXecuted
2016-11-24 19:14
Calvin simply write bullshxt to scare newbies sell off air Asia at 253. Please stop misleading and lying. Bad karma
2016-11-24 22:12
Holland master comment not based on the whole pictures of each company. He just purposely want to revenge back to those who criticize him before. Old folk only has learnt jealous, mean, fake.
2016-11-24 22:13
Calvin is confused. He said that AAX debt is $110 billion. If you care to look at the Balance Sheet, current debt is only $1.1 billion.
When he refers Note 32a, the note simply means commitment for AAX to purchase in the future. Future but not now... How fast in the future ? It is just about 1 or 2 or 3 airplane in a year. Why ? Because Airbus has limitation in its production line. So, why future commitment of $110 billion. OK, now that is a very smart TF move. First, it is an economic of scale. If you purchase more, you get cheaper price because by volume the profit is large. Second, to reduce inflationary pressure. If plane price increase by a few percent a year, in 20 years, the price of the plane would be double.
So now, is $110 billion is a debt at year 2016 or year 2017 ? No, it has not. If AAX has bought all the planes, then the revenue would be $5 billion a year. No plane will sit idle. Either it will increase number of passengers carried by a few hundred percent or it will increase lease revenue.
So, now we see how short thinking a person like Calvin is. If Calvin assume , he just make an ass of u and me.
2016-11-24 22:23
i guess everybody in i3 really just do not like calvin.
but he will still say majority is wrong n ppl still like him.
just ignore him or ban him ...lol
2016-11-24 22:26
radzi, RM110 is for 12 years.
Calvin won't reply here anymore. He is not willing to admit his mistakes.
2016-11-24 22:27
Calvin is on cloud nine.
I hit jackpot on Insas!
Another chun chun call by Calvin Tan Research
As for the 29 A330 300 planes.
They are non-cancellable! Go see Qr note 32a.
You better run fast fast from AAX
A = Aiyoo
A = Aiyoo
X = eXecuted
-----------------------
pity, once a blue moon only hit jackpot ...
this is the standard of calvin
btw, how is bjcorp, uems and bpuri ?
2016-11-24 22:27
i seriously doubt he actually bought at shares at all....how can one keep averaging down ? does he really owns a bank?
2016-11-24 22:29
haha he save face mah
so he in a win win situation, go up act an idiot like now
go down tell people he happy average down
2016-11-24 22:30
Another thing, AAX has made deposit (pre-payment) mounting to $1 billion plus. On top of it, AAX has a cash deposit of $367 million. So, all together, AAX cash asset and deposit is around $1.4 billion. This is enough to cover all current AAX debt if it chose to payback all in one shot.
2016-11-24 22:30
He is not confused. He knew exactly how to interprete the figures. He purposely distorted them to mislead. that is why I ask him not to lie . Not good
2016-11-24 22:32
radzi, i think you should not waste time post those fact to calvin as he wont understand 1 .. just like you play violin to a cow
2016-11-24 22:32
Why a person like Calvin , lie ? I thought he is a devout christian. Jesus taught you to lie, Calvin ?
2016-11-24 22:34
Why a person like Calvin , lie ? I thought he is a devout christian. Jesus taught you to lie, Calvin ?
---------------------------------------------
he not lie, he just a joker ...
give 100 stocks to forummer, then all no jackpot, all holland
the last stock he gave hit jackpot is kulim which is due to privatize not his analysis unless he give butthole to the ceo and ceo told him
2016-11-24 22:36
Actually, TF is a genius. He created an airline franchise. You have Malaysia AAX. Then you hold shares in TAAX, Australia AAX, India AAX, Philipines AAX, Japan AAX. So, Malaysia AAX is the master franchisor. What does master franchisor do in this airline business ? Master supplied the planes and the franchisee operates the business. On top of that Master get 50% of profit sharing.
A few days ago, I read Thai AAX wants to fly to Europe. Ever wonder , who will supply or lease the planes to them ? It is the Master franchisor - Malaysia AAX, 85% owned by TF and his co-founders. Genius or not , to me , that is a stroke of genius.
2016-11-24 22:42
Radzi, he is planning to sell of his master franchise. Asia Aviation Capital Limited.
2016-11-24 22:44
Strategically, that means he wants to reduce his risk by sharing the profit...
2016-11-24 22:46
Still he made a lot of money in the leasing Corp.
Check airasia operating leasing in annual report.
2016-11-24 22:48
Yes, I know.... that is why AAX leasing expense is high. AAX lease from AirAsia.
2016-11-24 22:53
Don't think so. I think Air Asia leasing units are mostly short haul planes. AAX leased long haul
2016-11-24 23:35
Anyway, Aax only has 1.1 billion debts! I don't know how Calvin can get 110 billion!
Fortunebullz
Go and study AAX latest quarterly result yourself
Rm110 BILLION for Plane purchase is stated there as Off Balance Sheet accounting!
Now just think.
How could the real debt of AAX be only Rm1.1 Billion when One A330 300 plane alone costs over Rm1.3 BILLION?
And 29 of them are now flying.
There is a big cover up!
REPLY:
Calvin, how you come out with the price per plane airasia bought at 1.3bn??? Pls look at the link below, airasia placed order 100 units of A321neo few months ago, every newspaper and media reported it only USD12.6bn for total 100 units air plane A321neo. Its around MYR50bn for total 100 units plane. It only cost 500mil per unit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-12/airasia-hands-airbus-12-6-billion-jet-order-on-travel-demand
DONT MISSLEAD NEWBIES HERE.
2016-11-25 06:01
Calvin Tan Eng is very much misleading. Future number of planes that will be owned by AAX and Airasia is around 200 unit. Out of it , ONLY IN YEAR 2018 , the planes will start to be delivered where AAX placed an order of 76 AAX 330Neo-900 , which has 14% more fuel efficiency compared with Malindo and MAS. Currently, AAX has only 29 airplanes.
2016-11-25 06:12
Calvin always naked himself un front of us...cheapskate car salesman will not understand accounting. Only use his mouth to twist the facts. Haha...low life...no wonder he bad karma all his stock go holland
2016-11-25 08:21
Get all the facts straight from AirasiaX website
Get all the figures from Airasia website
Get all the facts from AAX Quarterly report.
Scroll down to SEE every item mentioned.
Read the words and figures very carefully like going through a fine tooth comb.
Any accountant or auditor worth his salt can SEE
NO NEED THE KING OF MATHS TO EXPLAIN
2016-11-25 14:09
Calvin is a liar.
Note 32a) It does not mention debt. It just say capital commitment. Capital commitment will only be debt in the future if the company use debt to purchase the aircraft. Debt is not a necessity in the future. Read Corporate Finance 101, there are many ways to finance capital commitment.
2016-11-27 00:31
Sell plantation stocks. Soon , palm oil supply will flood the market because no more El Nino. Price will move down soon.
2016-11-27 00:32
Malaysia oil palm not going to over supply. Factory processing fruit is getting very low input n have to stop 2 to 3 Day in a week. Fertiliser is getting more expensive n low quality compare previously. Next year will getting worse. More ppl are converting to other fruit such as durian, durian belanda. Price will follow soya bean oil price. Peak season is going to over now n inventory does not built up. Rm 3500per ton may achieve as ringgit going to the drain. Najib can blame the past of mamak but he unable to restructure the country. Useless n no foresight pm.
2016-11-27 14:16
Palm oil price will move down soon. With oil price goes down, biodiesel project is cancelled. El Nino and La Nina will soon be over. So bye-bye-bye palm oil price. Subsidy is reduced in Malaysia and people will reduce consumption. So, now demand will drop. Oversupply situation while demand reduce. Price will sure go down. So, dont believe in Calvin Tan - he propose but God dispose. You will make loss if you buy palm oil company stock.
2016-11-27 23:01
Some people dont mind if Malaysia Ringgit drops because they have a lot of "investment" in US Dollar, so the more ringgit drop, the more money they will make when exchange USD to MYR.
2016-11-27 23:04
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calvintaneng
Posted by John Lu > Nov 24, 2016 01:20 PM | Report Abuse
All 105 comment as at now..95% is against Calvin..the 5% is his own comment...LOL...whole world is against this thick face big mouth Calvin
Calvin replies:
Last time my Johor Sifu took a one man stand against 99% of the people
Megan Media was
1) 67 cts with NTA of Rm2.00
2) P/E only 3
3) Pays a small dividend.
All thought megan media was a great stock except my Johor Sifu
He said Megan Media got accounting problems. Receivables were booked as profits. But the rest of 99% didn't agree. So the majority should be right?
NO!
Megan Media gone bankrupt and my Johor Sifu was proven correct.
So I am learning to be fearless if I smell a rat!
2016-11-24 13:26