Dear Friends, Fellow Investors & Fence Sitters in i3 Forum,

On this very nice Saturday afternoon in Singapore I have a message for all of you

By August 2018 GE14 Election dateline will be up & Malaysians willl go to the Poll.

In the fraternity of i3 Forum there are Investors from both Camps. The ruling BN incumbent and The Opposition. And some of course from Foreign Countries belong to neither. As you know 9.9% who viewed i3 Posts are from Singapore. And 2.8% are Fund Managers and Investors from as far as USA, Australia, UK and others

These are the figures extracted from Alexa.com. i3 Investors is Top 50 Search engine in Malaysia

Country.........................................Percent of Visitors

  Malaysia............................................83.7%

  Singapore..........................................9.9%

  United States.....................................1.4%

  Australia.............................................1.0%

  United Kingdom.................................0.4%

As I live in Singapore I have a totally different view from you guys in Malaysia. While politics play a major part in some of you - to foreign investors we are more concern about peace, stability & the function of businesses of Malaysia. 

Let's see

I once asked my son of his views because I had some disputes with my wife (you might call it family politic). My wife said, "What you have and own, whether assets or monies belong to me. But what I have belong to me and not belong to you. They belong to me and my children only"

"Ha!" I countered, "What? You mean it is only a One Way Street? Whatever I give you is yours to keep. But all that is yours do not belong to me? That's unfair! I complained"

So I complained about this injustice to my Son and told him to take side for me. But what was his reaction? He said nothing.

"Not standing up for justice?" Why don't you take side? 

Still no reply. Then it dawned on me that whether Assets or Wealth belong to Father or Mother - there is no difference. As both will grow old - passed off & leave all inheritance to children. So it is as if left hand is quarrelling  with right hand as to who is right or which is more important.

Now coming back to Malaysia Politics... What is the morale of the illustration?

IT IS THIS:

LISTEN

1) MALAYSIA SITS AT THE CENTER OF THE PACIFIC CENTURY WHERE IT IS SURROUNDED BY CHINA, TAIWAN, KOREA, JAPAN, VIETNAM, THAILAND  UP NORTH, INDIA, SRI LANGKA, NEPAL,  MYANMAR  TO THE WEST, PHILIPPINES TO THE EAST & INDONESIA WITH AUSTRALIA IN THE SOUTH

AND WITH SINGAPORE AS ITS NEIGHBOUR & THE STRAITS OF MELAKA IN STRATEGIC POSITION MALAYSIA'S FUTURE IS ASSURED

SO THE BUSINESSES OF MALAYSIA WILL THRIVE. HER PEOPLE ARE BLESSED

2) MALAYSIA'S INFRASTRUCTURE IS AMONG THE WORLD'S BEST - BEATING USA AND EVEN JAPAN. THAT'S WHY FOREIGN FDI CONTINUES TO POUR IN

A GDP OF OVER 5% IN A WORLD OF ZERO OR ALMOST NO GROWTH IS AN EXCEPTION

THESE INFRASTRUCTURE ARE IN PLACE WHO EVER GOVERNS IT

3) MALAYSIA IS ENDOWED WITH BODIES OF WATERS, INDIAN OCEAN TO THE WEST, PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST

HUGE PALM OIL & RUBBER ESTATES. THESE ARE PERMANENT VALUES

ABOVE ALL MALAYSIA STILL GOT HUGE RESERVES OF OIL & GAS. THESE ARE FIXED, UNCHANGED UNTIL THEY ARE DEPLETED. WILL LAST FOR MANY MORE YEARS

4) MALAYSIA STILL HAS VAST FOREST. SO ITS FURNITURE EXPORTS WILL THRIVE WITH QUALITY, VALUE . IT HAS A HIGHLY SKILLED E&E MANUFACTURES TO MEET  A WORLD OF MODERN IPHONES & INVENTIONS

5) MALAYSIA IS A MAGNET FOR CHINA TOURISTS. WILL GROW BY LEAPS & BOUNDS FOR YEARS/DECADES TO COME.

MALAYSIA IS ALSO THE NO. 5 HOME FOR RETIREMENT ON EARTH. THE FIRST FOUR IN SOUTH AMERICA. ALL FOREIGN LANGUAGE AND FOREIGN FOOD TO RETIRING JAPS, KOREANS, CHINESE FROM CHINA & SINGAPOREANS

SO THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR WHOSOEVER IN POWER

6) SO FAR SINCE YEAR 1969 (MORE THAN 49 YEARS ALREADY) THERE HAS NOT BEEN A RACIAL RIOT IN MALAYSIA.

WITH PEOPLE NOW MORE AFFLUENT, MORE AWARE & MORE WELL FED (SEE HOW OBESE ARE MALAYSIANS) WILL THERE BE ANOTHER RIOT? I DON'T KNOW. BUT I THINK IT WILL BE MUTED & PUT OUT FAST IF THERE BE ANY. 

7) iMDB HAS BEEN THE BANE OF MALAYSIA THESE PAST FEW YEARS. BUT LIKE BMF SCANDAL IN HONG KONG, TIN TRADING DEBACLE OF 1985-1987 WHICH LED TO A DEEP RECESSION , ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1997/8 & THE SUBPRIME CRISIS OF 2007/8 - MALAYSIA HAS EMERGED STRONGER EVERY TIME

AND SO CALVIN HAS BRIGHT HOPE FOR MALAYSIA... AND MALAYSIAN EQUITIES

WHY SO?

FROM EXPERIENCE

AFTER THE LEHMAN CRISIS I STARTED TO BUY WHEN SHARES FELL NEAR BOTTOM

I BOUGHT BURSA AT RM5.00 IN KLSE

I ALSO TOLD MY SINGAPOREAN WIFE TO BUY SGX AT S$5.00 ABOUT THE SAME TIME

As both were bombed out and sold down I think Stock Exchanges with little Capital Outlay should do well

And I was correct!

Today BURSA IS RM11.12 & SGX is S$7.50

So BURSA is Up 122% while SGX is up 50%

So Malaysia Stock Exchange performed better than Singapore Stock Exchange by more than 144%

That is the secret why Calvin lives in Singapore.... but invest mostly in Malaysia (I owned these shares in Singapore before ... Cerebos, ShengSiong & SingPost & SingTel). Cerebos taken private due to its popular Brand Chicken Essence, Sold ShengSiong too early & now holding SingPost due to ECommerce. SingTel was given free because the Very Wise Singapore Govt encourage all to own Assets & Shares.

Now coming back to Malaysia.

What or who should you Vote?

Vote for whoever you think you should. Calvin is apolitical. And so I won't take sides. I view Malaysia as a Good Place to invest. Just like my Son does not take any side in Family Politics. So we function well as a Family.

May Malaysia Function Well As A Great Trading Nation

Now leaving Politics aside what should you do with The KLSE (currently in doldrums)?

1) STAY 100% FULLY INVESTED?

2) GET OUT AND KEEP TO CASH 100% TILL AFTER THE ELECTION THEN ONLY DECIDE?

3) OR INVEST A PORTION - SAY 20% TO 40% OF YOUR CAPITAL AS FUTURE IS UNKNOWN? BN OR PAKATAN WILL WIN THE GE14 ELECTION? ONLY ALMIGHTY GOD KNOWS. 

What If you are 100% Fully Invested?

Ok if BN wins. Things remain status quo. 

What If Opposition Pakatan win?

Ha! This will be untested waters. No Opposition has taken Control of Putrajaya since Independence. What will it be like? I can't see yet.

But remember the Fundamentals in place won't change much. Malaysia's Centrality in Asia Pacific Geography. Malaysia's excellent Infrastructure. Malaysia's Vast Natural Rsources of Oil Palm, Rubber, Timber & Crude OIl. Malaysia's skilled exports of E&E and Furniture. Malaysia low cost of living being a Magnet for Tourists & MySecond Home Retirement.

So Malaysia Should Do Well.

Will Stock Market Collapse if Opposition come into power? Riots? No one know

But this we know

George Soros bet against Donald Trump and lost. Lost Big Time. About USD1 Billions gone. Rumour said that George Soros tried to stir up rioting in certain places. But all these came to pass.

And so, this too, will past!.

3) Invest 20% to 40% of Your Capital

I think this is the Best Course of Action.

Many Value Stocks. Growth Stocks. And Value Growth Stocks have fallen to 52 week low. So as some have Sold 100% and sitting on the Fence opportunity to buy Cheap Quality Share is now.

Don't time the market.

If after Election these Value Shares with good growth potential still go down further. Just add more.

THIS IS WHAT CALVIN THINK TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION. You might think otherwise.

Let everyone decide for himself.

But remember these:

1) If you have bought a single storey house in Bangsar for less than Rm50K years back you will be sitting on a Rm1 million Asset today. Come what may. 

2) If you had bought Dutch Lady at Rm4.00 (was called Dutch Baby then), Public Bank at 80 sen in (1997/8) or Nestle at Rm11.60 during the Asian Financial Crisis you are still sitting on Gold Mines today

SO COME WHAT MAY

WE INVEST THROUGH GOOD AND BAD TIMES. IN CERTAIN & IN UNCERTAIN TIMES

STAY INVESTED

AT MARKET PEAK SWITCH TO DEFENSIVE UTILITIES WITH DIVIDENDS. SWITCH TO STOCKS WITH HIGH NET CASH THAT GIVE GOOD DIVIDENDS

AT MARKET BOTTOM?

SAILANG INTO THE MARKET LIKE DR NEOH SOON KEAN TOLD US TO BUY THE BARGAIN OF THE CENTURY WHEN KLSE HIT 262 POINTS INDEX IN YEAR 1998 SEPTEMBER, I THINK

OR FOLLOW LEGENDARY SIFU JOHN TEMPLETON. BORROW TO BUY 100 SHARES OF LEADING DOW JONES STOCKS AT THE OUTBREAK OF THE SECOND WORLD WAR

YESSS!!

WE ARE TO BUY AT THE WORST OF MARKET PESSIMISM

BUY WHEN EVERY ONE HAD SOLD OUT AND GIVEN UP ALL HOPE!!

WARMEST REGARDS

Calvin Tan Research, Singapore