THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
The Necessity For A High Speed Rail for Malaysia, Calvin Tan Research
calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 02 Jun 2018, 02:06 PM
calvintaneng
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Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Friends in i3 Forum,
This is only a sharing. Some food for thought this Saturday about High Speed Rail in Malaysia
First the objections:
1) Because of 1MDB Malaysia now has RmTrillion debt. So there is no money for HSR.
2) HSR could be built for less than half the cost according to Finance Minister LGE
3) HSR does not work as it is a waste of money & not economically viable
4) Malaysia is too small a country to have a High Speed Rail
5) Since we can travel cheaper by Car, Train & Low cost airline why waste money on HSR?
6) HSR was from Ex Pm Najib. So better srcap it.
7) HSR will benefit Singapore more than Malaysia. But the cost is more for Malaysia.?
8) And more reasons to call it off..... etc....etc.....
Now these are some facts you must know.
1) Malaysia's Rm1 Trillions Debt or about 85% to GDP is still less than Japan, USA or even Singapore at 250%, 100% & 100%.
Japan has Rm55 Trillions Debt while the Debt of USA is Rm84 Trillions
With Debt up to its nose yet Donald Trump is proposing another USD1.7 Trillions (Over Rm6 Trillions) for Infrar jobs to build roads, airports, bridges & seaports
See
Trump raises infrastructure investment plan to $1.7 trillion
WASHINGTON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that his long-awaited plan to help rebuild the nations infrastructure will result in about $1.7 trillion in overall investment over the next 10 years, a larger figure than he has previously announced.
So the answer for HSR is not just a matter cost... question should be.... Is it a Necessity?
2) HSR as proven for 54 Long Years in Japan Shinkasen Experiennce IS VERY VERY SAFE:
See
Japan: Shinkansen boasts comfort, zero fatality record
Writer Hiroshi Izumi still remembers a time without the high-speed rail that connects Tokyo and Osaka.
The bullet train, or shinkansen, began service on this route in 1964 and has since expanded to cover most of Japan.
"It was unbelievable how the shinkansen revolutionised travel and made day trips possible," said Mr Izumi, who was travelling to Kyoto for work last Friday.
"I recall having to spend the night at the airport in the past so as not to miss an early morning domestic flight," added the 69-year- old, who now uses the shinkansen at least three times a month.
Despite a slew of flights on the 552km Tokyo-Osaka route today, Mr Izumi still prefers the nearly 2½-hour train journey with stops in Nagoya and Kyoto.
"The journey passes through areas with picturesque views, and it is a good time to just stare out the window in deep thought," he said.
Official figures show that up to 85 per cent of travellers chose the shinkansen over flying between the two cities last year.
The Tokyo-Osaka service, with a maximum speed of 285km per hour, had about 431,000 passengers per day last year. The service is the first and most heavily travelled high-speed rail route in the world, operator Central Japan Railway Company says, with a zero fatality record from accidents.
And the service is set to become even faster. By 2037, a magnetically levitated train, or "maglev", will travel at 500kmh, cutting the travel time to 67 minutes.
Transport experts say the birth of the high-speed rail accelerated the development of Tokyo and Osaka, which have expanded outwards. With this comes more demand for jobs, and studies show the shinkansen has reinforced the two cities as commercial hubs.
One such paper from the University of California, Berkeley, said: "By the early 1990s, the shinkansen line did not generate significant shifts of population or employment along its corridor, and it strengthened the economic role and primacy of Tokyo and Osaka at the expense of intermediate cities."
This trend of unequal growth has persisted even as Japan becomes more connected.
Latest data this month shows that more than 50 per cent of Japan's population lives in the three largest urban centres - Tokyo, Nagoya and Kansai, which includes Osaka - and that Tokyo's population is rising even as the number of people in rural areas is falling.
ZERO FATALITY MEANS NOT EVEN ONE SINGLE PERSON DIED IN ALL THESE 54 YEARS OF VERY SAFE TRAVEL BY HSR.
Let's look at Malaysia
3) MALAYSIA HAS 3RD HIGHEST ACCIDENT RATE IN THE WORLD
Death Rates On Malaysian Roads Is 3rd Highest Globally, More Than China And India
Malaysia registered a death rate of about 23 per 100,000 population.
Malaysia has been ranked as one of the top three countries in the world with the deadliest roads
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A report by Bloomberg on 20 June cited statistics from World Health Organisation (WHO) for 2013, stating that Malaysia is among the emerging countries with the riskiest roads after Thailand and South Africa.
Thailand made it to the top of the list with a death rate of 36.2 per 100,000 population. The other two countries in the Southeast Asia region into the top 20 list, namely Indonesia and the Philippines, registered a 15 and 11 death rate respectively.
"Road users in low- and middle-income countries are more than twice as likely to die in a traffic accident than their counterparts in developed nations," read the report. -
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For a nation that is aspiring to become a developed country, Malaysia should look towards decreasing its traffic-related death rate
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According to the data, Malaysia registered a death rate of about 23 per 100,000 population. Based on this statistic against the estimated population of 30 million Malaysians, about 7,000 to 8,000 people in the country die on the roads every year.
The fatality rate on Malaysian roads is still considered to be very high and it should be improved because it is very close to average rate among low-income nations.
Bloomberg reported that the average for developed nations is 9.3, while the rate for low-income and middle-income countries are 24.1 and 18.4 respectively. -
4) THE HIGH COST OF MALAYSIA ROAD ACCIDENTS IS RM9.2 BILLIONS A YEAR
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Road accidents cost Malaysia RM9.2b last year – Liow
Beyond the human cost, there is a financial price to pay for road accidents, to the tune of RM9.2 billion last year, according to transport minister Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai. Based upon the latest report by the Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research, this represented an increase of RM581.3 million over 2015, according to The Star.
“We take this very seriously. Malaysia must have a safety culture not just in factories but on the roads as well,” Liow said. Every death costs the country an average of RM 1.2 million, with RM120,000 incurred for severe injury and RM12,000 for light injury incurred in terms of medical cost, productivity loss and other payouts, MIROS estimated.
Last year, 7,152 people were killed in 521,466 road accidents last year, said Liow. The death rate due to road accidents rose from 2.55 persons per 10,000 registered vehicles in 2015, to 2.59 persons for every 10,000 registered vehicles last year.
The Transport Ministry is planning to hire the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) for a more in-depth study towards improving road safety in Malaysia, said the transport minister. JICA carried out traffic studies on Myanmar, Malaysia, and Thailand. The agency reported that Malaysia had a relatively high crash rate for every owned vehicle, likely due to the great number of motorcycles on Malaysian roads.
The ministry had carried out many campaigns to improve road safety for motorcyclists, including measures such as encouraging motorcyclists to wear reflective vests, and holding spot checks to ensure helmets are worn, Liow said. However, cooperation from all stakeholders is needed for the Malaysian government to reduce the road death rate to 2.0 persons for every 10,000 registered vehicles by 2020.
LET'S DO THE SUM
RM100 BILLIONS FOR HSR
RM9.2 BILLIONS LOSS THROUGH CAR ACCIDENTS IS ABOUT 11 YEARS TO REACH RM100 BILLIONS
AND THEN WHAT ABOUT LIVES LOST. 7,152 Deaths a Year mean Malaysians Killed?
What if for Next 54 Years (Since Japan has Zero Fatality)
So 7,152 x 54 = 386,208 MALAYSIANS EXPECTED TO LOSE THEIR LIVES!!!
Please do the Maths
Warm Regards,
Calvin Tan
Further Note The Damage to Malaysia Longer Term
Rm9.2 Billions lost for Car Accidents Per Year
For 54 Year
9.2 Bil x 54 = Rm496.8 Billions (Almost Half Trillion Ringgit Gone) PLUS 386,208
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LIVES PERISHED!!?
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Discussions
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i would beg to differ on ecrl, bro apolloang.
i think it would be good to link up the east coast to the more developed west coast for long term economic development.
but hsr is really a real total waste of money.
the economics doesnt justify building hsr, so thats why i dont see hsr-linked counters to be worth the punt.
on hindsights, looks like we r rite to be skeptical abt mrcb and george kent.
2018-06-03 22:27
let the rts btw jb-woodland run first, since so many sporean like shopping n makan in jb. hsr talk later
2018-06-03 22:28
cos of msia now has huge debt,msia cannot think of long term income,they must find a way to get quicker returns.
2018-06-03 22:29
Posted by loonginv > Jun 3, 2018 10:28 PM | Report Abuse
let the rts btw jb-woodland run first, since so many sporean like shopping n makan in jb. hsr talk later
THIS IS AN INTELLIGENT POST
THUMBS UP!!
CLEVER!!!
2018-06-03 22:32
TO PROGRESS JAPAN BUILT HSR FROM CAPITAL TOKYO TO NEARBY BOOM TOWNS
SEE
The original Tōkaidō Shinkansen, connecting Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka, Japan’s three largest cities, is the world's busiest high-speed rail line. In the one-year period preceding March 2017, it carried 159 million passengers[8], and since its opening more than five decades ago, it has transported more than 5.6 billion total passengers[
2018-06-03 22:34
exactly, @holland king.
the cost for ecrl is ridiculous but if the new govt can nego it down, it will be a catalyst for economic development for the east coast.
2018-06-03 22:35
AFTER DENG XIO PENG VISITED JAPAN HE SAW HSR HUGE POTENTIAL
SEE
State planning for China's current high-speed railway network began in the early 1990s under a strong leadership of Deng Xiaoping who set up what is currently called a "high-speed rail dream" after his visit to Japan in 1978, where he was deeply impressed by Japan's world's first high speed rail, Shinkansen[2]. In December 1990, the Ministry of Railways (MOR) submitted to the National People's Congress a proposal to build a high-speed railway between Beijing and Shanghai.
2018-06-03 22:37
How to compare Spore with China n Japan population. Spore population even smaller than part of KL! Haha... No nit la so high tech fast speed costly hsr for such tiny nation!
2018-06-03 22:41
not only weird, i heard even the building materials r shipped in from china.
the tendering was not done openly and malaysia does have companies like ijm/gamuda/ytl who r able to deliver the project at a better costing, so why give it to the chinese and secondly plus more interestingly, the interest rate offered by the chinese banks are at commercial, not preference rate.
malaysia is able to produce the rail rolling stocks needed, so why import from china????
2018-06-03 22:42
japan is an advanced country,what's there in Kelantan? even the people there seeking jobs elsewhere.66 bil for ecrl,how to ever can make back?
2018-06-03 22:42
NOT SINGAPORE ON ITS OWN LAH
THE WHOLE WORLD IS CONVERGING IN SINGAPORE
SO BY TAPPING INTO SINGAPORE YOU PLUG INTO THE ENTIRE WORLD SYSTEM
SEE ONLY SINGAPORE GOT THE WORLD'S LONGEST PLANE ROUTE (NOT KL, TOKYO OR BEIJING OR EVEN LONDON
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/sia-to-begin-non-stop-singapore-new-york-route-by-end-of-the-year-19-hour-flight
2018-06-03 22:44
thats the thing, bro apolloang.
east coast relatively undeveloped, so the area needs infra to support setting up factories etc.
but rm66bln for ecrl is really ridiculous.
2018-06-03 22:46
Even if got job openings, our local ppl got skills to take up ar? All fr China la... $$$$$$
2018-06-03 22:46
thats the sad part, @relaks.
something is really wrong with the education and economic systems of this country.
the country has alrdy missed the tech train and now is way behind even vietnam in terms of manufacturing.
2018-06-03 22:48
apolloang japan is an advanced country,what's there in Kelantan? even the people there seeking jobs elsewhere.66 bil for ecrl,how to ever can make back?
KELANTAN?
LAST TIME I VISITED KOTA BAHRU I MET A SECURITY GUARD WHO ONLY GET RM400 SALARY A MONTH
BANGLA WASHING CARS IN JB CAN GET UP TO RM1,200 (3 TIMES MORE)
SO I ASKED THE KELANTAN SECURITY GUARD HOW HE SURVIVED ON RM400? HE SAID HE HAS TO GO PLANTING FRUIT TREES NEAR RIVERS AND DO SOME PART TIME FISHING TO SURVIVE.
SO ECER? BETTER DON'T WASTE TIME AND MONEY. WHY CONNECT WITH THE DARK AGES WHILE SINGAPORE IS FIRST WORLD NATION WITH USD57,000 OR RM228,000 PPP
COMPARE PPP OF RM4,800 IN KELANTAN WITH RM228,000 PPP OF SINGAPORE?
YOU GOT BRAIN OR NOT?
2018-06-03 22:53
tourists like spore cos is a happening city,who's gonna go to Kelantan? spore got casinos in the city,now Vietnam gonna open a casino soon.kelantan got nothing except floods every year
2018-06-03 22:55
as usual, stupid clown calvintaneng is not making sense in his arguments again.
what bro apolloang meant is that there is no major economic activitie in kelantan, u idiot. not costs of living or salary/
2018-06-03 22:55
bro apolloang, kelantan has a lot of rubber and palm smallholdings.
i know of some kelantan old malay guy with 4 wives.
2018-06-03 22:57
better use the money to open casino in pulau jerejak in penang like sentosa in Singapore.....hahaha
2018-06-03 22:58
https://tradingeconomics.com/singapore/gdp-per-capita-ppp
IF ACCORDING TO PURCHASING POWER SINGAPORE IS OVER RM300,000 PER PERSON PER YEAR
2018-06-03 23:00
Kelantan every year flood,so doing business there very hard during the monsoon season.
2018-06-03 23:00
Ting is going to build RM30b development in Langkawi. Maybes lo eyes should turn north, not south.
2018-06-03 23:01
Build hsr, Singapore very happy, can enjoy being the financial hub forever. Yeah!
2018-06-03 23:02
FORGET ABOUT KELANTAN
I WENT FISHING IN KENYIR DAM 3 TIMES
PEOPLE TOLD ME BETTER GET OUT BY NOVEMBER BEFORE MONSOON ARRIVES OR I MIGHT GET STRANDED
YOU MUST THINK OF SINGAPORE AND THE ISKANDAR BOOM
2018-06-03 23:03
Gomen should use $$$ to eliminate flood in this country! A real Nuisance phenomenon!
2018-06-03 23:03
that why i m wondering why the previous govts never allocate any money to build flood mitigation infrastructure.
instead of building hsr etc, why not spend money on flood mitigation????
2018-06-03 23:04
we can now all see how desperate stupid clown calvintaneng aka iskanddar dreamer is trying to support his booming iskandar dreams.
the only biz making money there is gleneagles hospital, u ignorant clown.
Posted by calvintaneng > Jun 3, 2018 11:03 PM | Report Abuse
FORGET ABOUT KELANTAN
I WENT FISHING IN KENYIR DAM 3 TIMES
PEOPLE TOLD ME BETTER GET OUT BY NOVEMBER BEFORE MONSOON ARRIVES OR I MIGHT GET STRANDED
YOU MUST THINK OF SINGAPORE AND THE ISKANDAR BOOM
2018-06-03 23:06
Johor MP said no need HSR !
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/06/03/johor-mb-supports-decision-to-cancel-hsr-project/
2018-06-03 23:07
TING?
BE CAREFUL LOH
I HEARD DURING CRISIS HIS EKRAN WENT 7 TIMES LIMIT DOWN BEFORE THERE IS SOME SUPPORT
BUT FINALLY EKRAN GONE BANKRUPT
THE ONLY THING TING DID WAS BUILT THE ROAD WITH STREET LIGHTINGS FROM KUCHING TO THE SANTUBONG SEASIDE
I HAD STEAM BOAT AT THE SEASIDE RESORT YEARS BACK
2018-06-03 23:07
http://www.gillhamsfishingresorts.com/
this is better than fishing in kenyir dam.....hehe
2018-06-03 23:09
Gomen must not bail out this time! We forbid! Klau mati, kasi dia mati sendiri this time!
2018-06-03 23:13
only after anwar become PM then bursa will up a lot.cos many foreign funds dislike dr m
2018-06-03 23:30
2 yrs down the road Bursa oledi dead.. but I’m optimistic things will be ok this year. The stars must perform, cannot not perform ;)
2018-06-03 23:33
2 YEARS DOWN THE ROAD
SEE LATEST NEWS SHOWED 3 MORE PEOPLE GOT KILLED ON PLUS HIGHWAY
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/06/03/bus-accident-near-pagoh-kills-three/
2018-06-04 00:25
but so far, we can confirm is clown calvintaneng is now mata buta calvintaneng.
so what happened to ur mata rcb????
my mbsb still holding strong and steady.
lol............
2018-06-04 01:24
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
relaks
Dia dot dot here dot dot there bila u sambung, kan nampak panjang lol... hahaha.
2018-06-03 22:22