Howard Marks: Everything Is Cyclical

calvintaneng

The above article articulates Sifu Warren Buffet words

You don't drive a car by looking at its rear view mirror

Yes the bad patches you just drove past might be a very bad stretch. But you don't look backward as the scene from the front windscreen is now bright and rosy

In years 2015, 2016, 2017 and even 2018 carimin, Dayang, Penergy and velesto did very badly

THE game changer was Petronas Rm30 billions for upstream ogse jobs for exploration, extraction and maintenance of oil and gas wells

So Ogse went into a bull run for year 2019

Just as year 2019 belongs to Ogse bull run year 2020 will transit to Nfcp Fiberisation bull run time

This is why you cannot focus on past results of Netx or Opcom as they are upstream fiber producer or installer entities

THE game changer is Rm50 3 billions for fiber optic network expansion in Malaysia

AND that will be 5 very very exciting years ahead

We must act early and take position while others are still fearful

By the time others turn greedy then we must be very careful not to join the madness

For now is our best opportunity to buy

Regards
Calvin

2019-12-10 02:06

tigerball

haha 没netx 分

2019-12-10 08:29

DickyMe

NFCP RM50.3 BIL ??? Niamah hai, That's around 18% of GDP. Why not settle of 1MDB debt once and for all and close that prickly scandal? Infrastructural projects can be done anytime. What are your priorities?

2019-12-10 14:29

calvintaneng

You have miscalculated

Rm50. 3 billions for 5 years

About Rm10. 06 billions per year

Shutup and just buy to earn some good money

2019-12-10 14:38

calvintaneng

Stage No. 1. PermaFrost

Snow that is frozen for 2 or more years are called permafrost

perma - as in perma-nent

frost - be freezed over

This is the stage of a really dead stock that no research house will bother. Not a single soul is interested. The exception must be the only one in ten thousand who dare to buy any.

Stage No. 2. Thawing

Frozen Solid Ice starts to thaw or soften a little

A very slight passing glance by some value investors or deep value hunters. Only the very brave who SEE VALUE Will dare to buy some.

Stage No. 3 ICE Now Turning to Cold Water.

Some brave souls dare to venture in. Of course it's cold. Every where people pour scorn and cold water on the stock. Very few pay any attention. Remarks are usually negative. From Remisiers, fund managers, one and all. Same conclusion - the stock is not in their investment radar. So most reject it..

Stage 4. Cold Water no longer cold. It is now at room temperature.

Ha! there is a little attention paid by value investor. For the rest it is neither cold nor hot. So lukewarm response. No longer negative like before. But not positive either. A few hopeful investor starts to accumulate.



Stage 5 Water starts to boil

Ha! the heat or fire cause the water to stir a little now. There is warm and movement.

Company reports a good quarter. Or some great contract awarded - real or assumed. Some by merger news. Some favourable factors due to ringgit crash and strong US Dollar translating into higher profits. Or cheap oil benefiting rubber glove, logistic stock like transport or airline. There is now a stir in the stock.

Newspapers, analysts, experts, punters and all are paying attention now. More people talk about it in internet forum and even the media reports it.

Buyers are coming in and there is a great stir at last. Things are now coming alive. Prices moving upward. Many are making monies.



Stage 6. Boiling Water Turning Very Hot in the kettle. The water now churning in violent waves in the pot or kettle with steaming hot movements.

At long last the stock is very hot. Post after post by i3 forum member. All are universally drawn and sucked in. Like insects flying into bornfire at night there is a red hot wild attraction. As more people telling how they made killings in the stock market even more and more people are drawn into the red hot hot stock.

Those who made money early are now piling more and more monies into the red hot stock. Some even go into margin account to buy more.

Prices leap up to the cheers of all and sundry. Everyone is so happy. Happy in a sure winner. Emotion is now flying high. Any opposing view is slammed down in a frenzy. Reason is now overtaken by exuberance.



Stage No. 7. Hot Steam Rises Up The Sky As Hot Air To Form Cloud

All are now in cloud nine. Naysayers are condemned and proven wrong. The sky is the limit for the price. Can now fly to the moon or mars. More monies piled in. More suckers drawn in by greed.

This is the happiest time for all. But throwing all caution to the wind this is also now the most dangerous time to hold or buy more.

In Bursa every day the hot stock is traded in top 10 volumes

In internet forum this is the stock conversation revolves around day and night. Media reports it and tell why it should go even higher. Experts suddenly appear to tell you this time is different. The sky is the limit. Or the sky is not limit. It should fly to outer space.




THE ABOVE WILL BE A BLU PRINT FOR ALL CYCLICAL & TURNAROUND STOCKS

NETX & OPCOM ARE NOW GOING IN UP CYCLE

BEST IS TO ENTER AT STAGE ONE TO THREE (NETX AT 1 SEN TO 2 SEN)

AT STAGE FOUR NETX WILL BE 2.5 SEN TO 3 SEN

AT STAGE FIVE NETX WILL REACH 4 SEN TO 5 SEN

STAGE SIX IS WHEN 3iii, JChew, Wongws, fireball, cat lim, 500bilis & others leave in shame and confusion. NETX NOW REACHED 6 SEN TO 8 SEN

STAGE SEVEN

ALL NEWSPAPERS, ALL EXPERTS, ALL SUPER SUPER GURU & INVESTORS HAVE APPEARED & TELL YOU HOW CLEVER THEY PICKED THESE NFCP STOCKS CHUN CHUN

AND THE SKY IS THE LIMIT

NETX SHOT PAST 15 SEN TO 30 SEN!!


BULL MARKET ENDS IN A FINAL NUCLEAR BLAST

NETX ZOOOOOOOOOM TO 50 SEN AND REACHING RM1.00 SOON?

By then Calvin and friends are out

FOR NOW JUST BUY UP ALL CHEAP CHEAP NETX SHARES

WE ARE STILL AT PERMA FROST STAGE

Regards

Calvin

2019-12-12 11:53

calvintaneng

VERY GOOD MORNING TO ALL DEAR INVESTORS FROM CALVIN OF SINGAPORE

Today's Topic is

WE BUY NETX BECAUSE IT HAS MARGIN OF SAFETY

WHEN NETX WAS 1 SEN CALVIN ISSUED BUY CALL (Now how to buy a stock at 1 sen is beyond Fund Managers. No Fund Manager or IB in their right mind will bother with a share worth only one sen!)

THEN WHY CALVIN DARED TO BUY NETX AT 1 SEN?

ANSWER:

1) NETX HAS ZERO DEBT FOR BUSINESS (You cannot go bankrupt if you don't owe money

2) NETX HAS RM35 MILLIONS IN CASH. When Netx was selling at 1 sen & it has a cash hoard of Rm35 Millions which means it has 1,2 sen in cash per share.

THIS DISCOVERY GAVE GOOD MARGIN OF SAFETY & UNDERVALUATION

3) DIGGING FURTHER INTO ANNUAL REPORT CALVIN DISCOVERED THAT NETX GOT CASH LOANED OUT TO SUBSIDIARY ARIANTEX AND OTHER AT RM72.7 MILLIONS (HU HU HU )

THAT WAS WHY NETX HAS EXTRA HIDDEN VALUE.

AS MARGIN OF SAFETY BUFFER GOES UP CALVIN TURNED MORE BULLISH AND TOLD ALL TO BUY AT 1.5 SEN. AFTER THAT 2 SEN. WHY CAN BUY NETX NOW AT 2 SEN?

4) BECAUSE COMPANY EMPLOYEES DARED TO PICK UP NETX SHARES AT 2 SEN (50 MILLIONS FOR ESOS AT 2 SEN ALL TAKEN UP)

Tell you a secret

Calvin called Netx staff and asked if there should pass it up then let Calvin take over the ESOS at 2 sen. But they said they will exercise ESOS at 2 SEN

THAT MEANS THAT THE EMPLOYEES OF NETX ARE ALSO SANGUINE ABOUT COMPANY'S FUTURE.

AS SUCH OUR MARGIN OF SAFETY HAS NOW GONE UP FROM ONE SEN TO 2 SEN STRONG SUPPORT

NOW CALVIN IS VERY VERY HAPPY FOR ALL WHO BOUGHT NETX FROM 1 SEN TO 2 SEN

WE AWAIT NFCP RM50.3 BILLIONS ROLL OUT

TIME IS ON OUR SIDE

AS WE MOVE INTO JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH THE EXCITEMENT OF NFCP WILL FILL THE AIR

SO HOLD TIGHT EVERY PRECIOUS NETX SHARES FOR A COMING MULTI YEAR BULL RUN TIME

ALL WHO INVEST IN NFCP STOCKS WILL BE VERY VERY VERY WEALTHY FOR

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

5 CHEERS!!


Kindest Regards

Calvin


AFTER NETX OPCOM. REDTONE, CMSB & BINACOM ALSO GOOD

2020-01-07 10:35